Motherofone, I had a situation very like yours in some respects. I had my first at 27 weeks by C-section (no choice, as I had pre-eclampsia) and second time around I really wanted a natural labour. What I found was such a variety of opinion. Firstly I was told,'forget the idea of a natural birth at all, you'll have a section'. Then after discussion with other midwives, consultants (I was booked into two hospitals in case I needed to go in early), where one would say, 'Oh you can go all natural' and the other would say, 'hooked up to a permenant monitor'. I felt confused, emotional and worried.
Finally at 37 weeks I saw yet another consultant who always 'allows' VBAC or at least a trial. From the information I gathered I got the following impression
- The risk of rupture is very very small (less than 1%)
- They prefer to keep you strapped to a monitor because they 'should' be able to tell if the baby is in distress quickly. However most units have 'mobile' monitors which are straps but no wires. Find out if you can have this.
- Water births are discouraged because if they need to move quickly, they can't
- they will only allow a 4 hour 'trial' of labour becaue if you are not progressing at all, and intervention is needed, it usually leads to more intervention.
- for this reason they don't like to induce as it can be the start of a slippery slope.
- With your history of a 'big baby' I can understand why they want to do another scan, as you say there is a 30% margin of error, but it gives the best indication that we have.
In the end they cannot force you to do anything, and itsounds like you had a really patronising idiot who didn't take time to discuss the whys and wherefores of your situation.
In my case it was all academic in the end. The last consultant visit at 39 weeks agreed that if things looked 'favourable' they would induce me at 40.5 weeks (due to BP they didn't want to leave it). However on my due date I realised I had been leaking water for 24 hrs so I went in, not in labour. Firstly they decided to induce me, then they decided the baby was too high and they wouldn't, then they decided to send in a third person to do an internal who couldn't even reach the baby, so they sent me to bed! The next day I had a junior Dr (who didn't read the notes) try to give me an internal, and I explained that the baby was not engaged and that my consultant would only induce if things were 'favourable'. He went away and said 'No' the other consulatant wants to induce you. I asled if he'd looked at my notes and was told, 'no the consultant didn't realsie you had had a section before'. By this time I was p*ed off and asked for a definative opinion. 3 hrs later a Senior Registar came in (5th internal) and decided there was no point in inducing me as the baby wasn't engaged and what was the point of hours of labour to end up with a section.
Finally I had a section, and after as they were cleaning up they told me if I had been allowed to go into labour (or induced) I would have to have had a section as there was meconium in the waters and the placenta had broken down!
So (excuse the waffle) all I will say is I know how you feel, I didn't want a section no matter what. However I had one, and before I did I was able to make the choice. It was the choice that empowered me and stopped the unhappiness and confusion. I am sorry to say you will have to come to terms with the fact you may need another section, and it is better to understand that now, than be disappointed on the day. However if you are lucky and everything goes OK you won't need to have a section. All I am saying is please prepare yourself emotionally in advance, bacause it is this that will stop you getting depressed and emotional about it afterward.
I didn't get teh birth I wanted, but at least in the end I chose NOT to be induced and had some control over my baby's birth.
Good Luck