Stats for induction vs. CS please!

[designerbaby]

Hi all... I have a close friend who is 4 days overdue with her first baby. She's getting lots of horror stories about induction from friends and relations (particularly from South Africa where she's originally from) urging her to consider an elective CS instead.

I've obviously told her to try and calm down as she's not really very overdue and will, in all likelihood go into labour naturally anyway. But she's coming under a fair bit if pressure from all sides.

I had a horrible induction (complicated by an unlicensed drug and uterine hyperstimulation) so I'm by no means a huge fan of induction, but I think that to consider an elective CS without any mitigating circumstances is a bit nuts and probably riskier than induction in her situation...

But I'm also aware I might be talking out if my arse, so wondered if there are stats available which might shed some light on the relative risks of induction vs CS...

Not just mortality and stuff, but I remember reading something about more incidences of PND following CS...

I'll probably share this with her husband if at all, I don't reckon she needs any more feedback, but he's been asking me for my opinion and seems to be becoming very pro CS. I know she has her heart set on a 'normal' birth, but he very much holds sway in their relationship...

And I bow to your collective superior knowledge and thank you in advance.

db
xx

I don't know the stats but I just thought I would add she shouldn't get her hopes up for a cs, you cant just ask for one and the drs say 'ok then', it's more complex than that and the new NICE guidelines don't mean everyone has the right to a CS. In all likelihood she's just late as its her first and shell probably be fine:)

My induction was brill. I went into hosp at 10. I had my waters broken at 11. They put me on the drip at 1. I started contracting at about 2, they were constant but not too painful. At 6 they became terrible! I had some pethidine and then 1 hour later after 10 mins pushing my DS was born! Not all inductions go wrong

No stats but can you explain to him that EDD is estimated rather than a target?

I wish we could get rid of the words early and late referring to babies born between 37-42 weeks as they just seem to generate steps :(

No stats but can you explain to him that EDD is estimated rather than a target?

I wish we could get rid of the words early and late referring to babies born between 37-42 weeks as they just seem to generate stress :(

It's very hard to say - will depend on

• whether this is her first baby
• her bishop's score at start of induction (ie - the state of her cervix)

NICE guidelines suggest that induction is more likely to end in a vaginal birth than just waiting to go into spontaneous labour once a mum hits 41 weeks. But I'm a bit about that.

Umboo - thanks, I didn't think it would be straightforward to get a CS without a medical reason for it, but I think it's easier than it once was, and if they refuse an induction... I keep telling them to just relax - they're only at 40+6 today. They're getting loads of pressure from the OBs, I think... Not sure why, the midwives are happy enough, apparently.

LST I'm so glad you had a good experience with induction. I think the majority are fine. It probably doesn't help, that as some of our closest friends they were aware of all the problems I had, and that if I had gone overdue I would have had a CS (I was offered one anyway, and the OBs recommended I didn't have a chemical induction) but I have tried to explain that I was given an unlicensed drug and my body is not her body, so our situations are different. There's no reason on earth to assume that if she were to be induced that it would be anything therthan perfectly straightforward.

soandsosmum Yep, I've explained that, and she's read Ina-May Gaskin (who's very much of the opinion that 42 weeks is a perfectly normal gestation!) and I keep saying "you're not "overdue" you're just pregnant!" and trying to get them to relax about it. But it's all getting a bit tense over there and various other friends keep pressing the panic button, not helped by the OBs pressuring them to induce (for no good reason, apparently - there's no concerns about the baby at present).

shagmundfreud it is her first baby, and a very much longed for one at that - it didn't happen easily for her, and she's not had the easiest of pregnancies, bless her. Don't know her bishop's score - I don't think they've done one for her yet as the midwives aren't keen to have her induced either... Very about those NICE guidelines... I was under the impression that avoiding the first intervention (i.e. induction) and letting nature take its course would be the best thing to avoid the 'cascade' of interventions that sometimes follows and can ultimately end in a CS. Don't really understand that one... Do they give a rationale?

I know that its just so important for her to try and have as natural a birth as possible, after everything she's been through, and she was s hoping for one and I'm a bit that she's getting so much hassle and stress from so many quarters. I just wish they'd leave her be for a bit...

And I wish people would stop with the horror stories - honestly what possible help can that be at this point? All the "well so-and-so had her induction on the NHS and it was SO AWFUL the baby nearly DIED and they had to fly their brother-law's father who's a doctor over from SA to sort it all out, and he said she should have had a CS once she went over 40 weeks, and..."

I mean FFS!

I also feel guilty that them knowing about the difficulties I had 4 and a half years ago is colouring things for them...

db
xx

In south Africa, The majority of women who do not have state healthcare (which is extremely basic and aimed at the very poor) have an el cS. Not many intact uteri over there! There is certainly no culture of waiting for labour to start when its ready.

I know mayhew... My FIL is a GP in SA. He couldn't believe that I wasn't induced on my due date, or indeed that I wasn't given a CS because, (and he said this to me BEFORE each birth, encouragingly) there was NO WAY I was going to be able to give birth naturally, as I was so small and the babies were 'obviously' massive.

I swear, I pushed the second 9 1/2 pounder out in water, in four hours, with no pain relief just to spite him .

Her waters broke yesterday, no active labour yet, but they've kept her in (for reasons I can't fathom). She spent last night pacing the halls of the Royal Free . I suggested they went home and got some rest until things got going, but I think honestly they are too excited that something's happening...

Oooh! A text! Cobtracting, apparently but "not enough" FFS!? Not enough for who/what!? I do wish someone would just tell her she's doing fine...

db
xx

Update... Still in early labour, contracting but not much happening. Apparently this is all being complicated by the fact that she tested positive for strep 2 months ago. But she was re-tested 2 weeks ago and was all clear. . But consultant has said infection risk from (non-existent?) strep means she has to get baby out in the next 3 hours... I think that means she's getting syntocinon... At the very least.

Poor love, she's had no sleep and lots of hassle, by all accounts. She's knackered before she's even really started...

She was so hoping for something different... I'm just really praying it all goes well from here, but I have a sad feeling where this is headed...

db
xx

C-section about to happen.
She's gutted, apparently...
After 2 days of trying, poor thing, she's knackered too.

db
xx