You don't necessarily have to choose, exactly. I would:
- not have an elective cs, as they're generally booked early.
- wait and see what happens at your due date, and see if your waters break, see if you go into labour etc.
- perhaps try natural induction methods, or sweeps?
- probably avoid medical induction, as it's somewhat not recommended with a previous cs.
- if things become too much, choose a cs when you want, or when progress is an issue, or if there's any concern for the baby.
You will probably end up with a cs again. Given your history, it's certainly a possibility. But if you take it easy and don't have the elective cs, your baby will be properly "cooked" when he comes out. You will both have the hormonal benefits of him being ready to come out (milk comes in faster, bigger baby, easier to feed, etc etc).
This is what we did - DS1 was 9lb6oz, born by elective section (footling breech), DS2's head didn't engage, no progress despite weeks of pre-labour (not even effaced!), so we went for a "emergency" section after my waters broke, but he still didn't engage, and I still didn't get real contractions.
It was a lovely relaxed section, and things went much better than with my elective.
So, yeah, I'd give vbac a try, but not push it, you know?