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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to think the current economic crisis is far from over

188 replies

Litchick · 10/03/2010 13:44

I know that the Bank of England announced we were back in growth, but when I look around me things still seem pretty dire.

Two shops in my local town have shut down in the last month.
A friend recently closed her internet business.
The industires I know most about are in melt down. Publishers are ridding themselves of staff and taking on very few debut authors. DH tells me the city is dead and the start of 2010 has been the worst he can remember.

Do we really think there's going to be a turn around soon? Or are we in for a long hard slog?

OP posts:
Alouiseg · 13/03/2010 18:23

ElenorRigby Good point about the population being in denial.

This is why the govt is trying to woo us with scraps from their table rather than pointing out the bigger picture.

I don't want to vote for a party on one trick issues, for example, tax credits, childcare, time guarantees for medical treatment. There is so much more to it than that but ultimately we are apparently daft enough to think that we are getting something for free. The govt should not be at liberty to waste any more of our money on issues that affect only certain sections of society.

It's our money, nothing is free and ultimately they've buggered up the economy AGAIN.

sarah293 · 13/03/2010 18:39

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runnybottom · 13/03/2010 18:59

We're not necessarily in denial. We might be at the point where if we talk about how bad our situation is we might cry. A lot. And try not to.
Doesn't mean we are stupid or oblivious. Talking on here isn't going to change the fact that my mortgage is twice what my house is worth, or that servicing it takes 55% of our income, even though its far too small for our family.

ABetaDad · 13/03/2010 19:09

EleanorRigby - good point about denial. In RL I talk to people about the economy and they barely seem to know what is happening. Its just something on the news about banks -'nowt to do with me' kind of attitude.

For many people it seems as long as they can still borrow and pay the minimum balance on the CC that is all that matters until they lose their job. I sometimes feel me and DW worry too much.

MillyMollyMoo · 13/03/2010 19:09

I can't see that ever happening to DH and I.

And nor would we want it to for our children's sakes unless we want them living with us until they are 45.
But that £650k could be gone in the flash of an eye, it's only 12.5 years of care home fee's between them.
I cannot believe any government is going to let people pass down the "free money"

MrsC2010 · 13/03/2010 19:14

I don't think the whole population are in denial at all. In fact, I think that as I suspect there are people out there who are far worse off than many of us as a result of the current situation I think many are more 'aware' than we are. There is a difference between being in denial and not talking about it openly though. For example, DH and I will talk about our situation which is pretty secure as we're not for the high life anyway, have savings, lowish cost of living, sensible mortgage etc but we wouldn't with people outside of the household. That doesn't mean that we are unaware of the possibilities on the horizon, we are taking what precautions we can etc.

MrsC2010 · 13/03/2010 19:16

"Free money" Milly? They have been lucky but have invested wisely, lived frugally and worked hard. I have already said that I have never expected it, and I'm not sure what claim the government should have on it though.

MrsC2010 · 13/03/2010 19:17

Oh, and neither my sister nor I live with my parents so I'm not sure where the link between that kind of value increase and 45 yr old children living with their parents comes from. Not that I'm 45, but that's irrelevant I know!

MillyMollyMoo · 13/03/2010 19:37

I bet you and your sister didn't pick up £30,000 of student debt either though before you even try to get a job and start saving for a deposit.

sausagepastie · 13/03/2010 19:40

Sorry I have absolutely no idea about the question at hand, but can someone please clear up for me whether the title is in fact a tautology?
It has been driving me berserk for a couple of hours now

expatinscotland · 13/03/2010 20:04

Why do these discussions always come round to being about houseprices?

Overstretch yourself? Well, playing with fire can get you burned.

Take out £30K for a degree instead of working full-time whilst studying, living at home or in a shared hovel whilst studying, study for something that's not going to pay you enough to where £30K worth of student loan debt is manageable, etc.? Well, how is that anyone's fault by your own?

Life is about trade-offs and options/choices.

But you have to learn personal responsibility to be able to see that.

And if you think the economy's circling the bowl, well, personal responsibility went down the pan long ago.

That's a lot of why things are fucked up and will likely get worse instead of better no matter who is in government.

The government's not here to solve all your problems or take all the blame for your problems.

snowlady · 13/03/2010 20:28

The government doesn't encourage people to be responsible with their money as those who have savings receive 0 interest and their savings depreciate thanks to inflation.

purpleturtle · 13/03/2010 20:33

I think the thing about houseprices is that once upon a time a bank would only lend you up to 3x your salary for a mortgage - and it was not uncommon for that to be 3x one salary. We were able to buy a little house that way in 1996.

Only a few years later our friends were coming out of banks having been told (encouraged?) they could borrow 4.5x or 5x their salary, by using affordability calculations or something. And that kind of lending is what has contributed in a major way to the current situation, imho.

TheCrackFox · 13/03/2010 20:39

I have heard stories of 7x their salary and self certification mortgages. I have no idea how people thought they could pay that back. Madness.

MillyMollyMoo · 13/03/2010 20:44

In 2004 we were offered 10 times DH's salary when DD3 was 3 months old on the basis that and I quote "she'll be back at work soon" I never did find out if he meant me or DD3

ElenorRigby · 13/03/2010 20:59

"You've been living in a dream world, Neo. This is the world as it exists today.... Welcome to the Desert of the Real."

I think we have all been living in a dream world. I only started to become unsettled/
worried late in 2006. Then I took on 5 year fixed rate deal as I feared interest rates would soar, that was my then frame of reference ie in the past when the ecomony went tits up, inflation rises proceeded interest rises. Subsequent falls in interest rates confused me,I had gambled but was still OK. I rued a little been locked in at 5 ish % but was financially ok.
Now I realise the game the Government and the Bank of England have been playing. People have been duped, lulled into false sense of security. Many have taken "advantage" of the past/current low interest rates. When they rise, "Welcome to the Desert of the Real."

expatinscotland · 13/03/2010 21:02

We were also offered 10x my salary in 2004.

But anyone who isn't a fool could see that to take it doesn't make good financial sense.

I have little sympathy for those who did and are now struggling. i mean, duh!

ElenorRigby · 13/03/2010 21:37

"Why do these discussions always come round to being about houseprices?"
Err because there is a huge house price bubble soon to crash. It will effect us all.
As will the higher prices for every day goods caused by inflation and cost of more and more people been forced onto benefits.
Recap...
We are 800 billion pounds in debt
Income receipts this year are projected to be around 140 billion versus welfare payments around 160 billion.
The ships sinking...
Check out what happened in Japan's recession for the last 20 years.
Ariticle
"What caused Japan's recession?
Japan has been suffering stagnant economic growth and a series of recessions for more than 10 years. How has a country once seen as the ruler of the 21st century come to such a pass? And what, if anything, can the government do about it?

Why is Japan's economy in decline?

Japan is still suffering from an economic crisis that hit the country in 1989-90, when the "bubble economy" of high land prices and high stock market prices collapsed.

Both banks and businesses had much of their assets in either land or in cross-shareholdings with companies to which they were allied.

Suddenly, these assets - and therefore the debts on which they were secured - were wiped out.

As a result, banks became burdened with bad debts and lending to companies for expansion dried up.

Gradually, companies which produced in Japan have shifted some of their factories abroad, increasing unemployment.

And as unemployment rose to record levels, people have stopped spending so freely, causing prices to drop.

This makes everyone more reluctant to spend in the hope that they might get even greater bargains in the future.

What might happen next?

Japan has been seriously affected by the world economic slowdown.

In the past, exports by its large and successful companies have helped sustain its economy, but with the US economy wobbling, this is much more difficult.

The day of reckoning for the banking sector is getting closer, with banks being forced finally to declare their non-performing assets.

In addition, Japan is suffering from a large debt overhang from its excessive government borrowing, which will have to be reduced to lower long-term interest rates.

What has the government tried to do?

The government has repeatedly tried to stimulate the economy by spending money on public works.

The result has been some very well-equipped - if often unnecessary - regional infrastructure projects, but relatively little of the money spent reached those who have been made unemployed.

Much of it has in fact gone into the coffers of Japan's huge construction companies, which have very close links to ruling party politicians.

The spending has kept them afloat; without it many might already have gone bust. As it is, the first domino fell in December 2001, as Aoki Construction went under with debts totalling 522bn yen ($4bn).

And the massive outlay means government borrowing has reached 130% of GDP, higher than any other industrialised country.

This means that in the long run Japan will have to reduce its spending levels, at a time when it is facing increased pressures from an ageing population and the increased cost of health care.

And that could prove politically painful.

Can lower interest rates help?

Japan already has near zero interest rates.

It has now said that it will also buy Japanese government bonds to help boost the money supply

But despite the low interest rates, with the worsening economic prospects it is not easy to persuade either consumers or companies to borrow more money.

And long-term interest rates are dragged down by the huge government debt burden, despite the low overnight rates.

What are the prospects for reform?

The Japanese government says it is committed to structural reforms like eliminating its budget deficit and forcing the banks to declare the real extent of their losses.

But its reform programme has been made difficult by the severity of the downturn.

Making more banks insolvent could prolong the economic slowdown and eventually cost the government a lot of money if it has to assist with the bail-out.

And cutting government spending is a tricky political process.

The incumbent Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, is known to be a reformer, and he has stressed his determination to press on with economic reform even if it means short-term hardship."

That article is from 2002. Japan is still recovering from its bubble.

Thing is Japan was not in debt to the tune of 800 billion before their bubble burst...
Oh and they also had/have a manufacturing base that we have lost.

Exports were expected to rise against the background of a weak pound but instead they fell. Our manufacturing ability is weakened at best if not lost for some time.

snowlady · 13/03/2010 22:20

Eleanor - how do you know the housing bubble will burst?

It should surely have burst in the past 2 yrs but the govt seems to do all it can to keep house prices high..such as stamp duty offer, low interest rates. It seemed for a few months as if the banks would stop lending ridiculous amounts but I bet they are back to their bad ways already.

Alouiseg · 13/03/2010 22:22

elenorrigby You're good! how bad do you think sterling will get against $.

We're betting on near parity in this house.

MillyMollyMoo · 13/03/2010 22:55

Me thinks the members of house price crash with their chicken licken, the sky is falling in may have infiltrated us.

We just don't have the resources to house people should repossessions go up to the levels seen in the 80/90's again, interest rates won't be rising any time soon IMO.

runnybottom · 13/03/2010 23:21

they said that in Ireland too, Milly, see how well that protected them from a massive house price crash.

expatinscotland · 13/03/2010 23:34

As wi'll the higher prices for every day goods caused by inflation and cost of more and more people been forced onto benefits.'

You can't go on benefits just because the price of goods go up.

sarah293 · 14/03/2010 08:46

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foreverastudent · 14/03/2010 09:11

But isn't the reason we lost our manufacteuring base that British consumers are not willing to pay more for goods produced in this country?

We want high wages but are not willing to pay the price for good that are made by people earming these high wages.

We have boomed by exploiting the sweatshops of Asia.