to think parents who refuse to let their children mix with my ds because he goes to a school closed for pig flu are idiots

[TheDullWitch]

DS1's school is closed because of pig flu, he's taking Tamiflu - although he has no symptoms whatsoever. The health advice is, he can go anywhere, mix with anyone. DS2 is going in every day to his different school. Even so friends have cancelled their visit because they're worried about catching it! The hysteria is ridiculous.

All of the schools which have had confirmed cases have been shut for 7(?) days.

I suspect that it is part of the governments pandemic response protocol...although I may be overthinking it.

Thank you Musukebba I really enjoy reading your posts on the subject
I see that in the states they are only using oseltamivir for severe cases and that they are only testing severe probables in the large outbreaks. It looks like they've given up trying to contain it there. That must make it so much more challenging to do the same here?

Mollie, being on Tamiflu only lowers the risk. It doesn't remove it entirely.

I wonder whether the mass dishing out of Tamiflu is a good idea? I am speaking from a position of complete ignorance, but surely it's likely to "help" the virus develop resistance? And are we sure about side effects and stuff like that? Or am I talking complete b***ks?

Thanks OYBBP : yes in the States things have moved on much further and there comes a time when you give up trying to control the outbreaks by treating contacts, and reserve drug for ill people.

We're not there yet in the UK - Dulwich events included - but it may get to that point eventually; where we stop testing potential cases and just assume that people with a flu-like illness have it.

@seeker: with antiviral resistance you're always up against two competing factors: (1) the virus mutates anyway and the drug selects those strains that are resistant, versus (2) the drug prevents complications of infection and interferes with the spread to other people. So yes; using a drug sometimes comes at a theoretical potential cost, but the UK strategy at the moment is to prevent cases from turning into outbreaks.

So in other words, the strategy at the moment is public health protection, rather than a blanket policy to give prophylaxis?

While the virus is still spreading slowly and in limited clusters, the Tamiflu prophylaxis is assumed to limit spread?

But if it does spread more widely, we are likely to see a move to only administering Tamiflu to those who are symptomatic?

Just asked for that post to be deleted - sorry.

A London school which has been closed because of swine flu is, I understand from a friend, reopening on Monday.

Strategy at the moment is both: to treat individual cases and prophylax their specific contacts. Oseltamivir is effective at reducing symptoms and complications, but also at preventing exposed people developing influenza. It's a reasonable assumption that it would also limit spread.

If this strategy proves ineffective, then I would anticipate the remaining stocks of drug would be reserved for the actual cases, yes. Exactly where that tipping point would be, however, depends on how things go and probably the mathematical modelling of transmission events.

Thing is every person that is infected and sustains a replicative infection becomes a walking flu virus sheader. If you can prevent that replicative infection you could go a massive way towards limiting the spread (on the basis that each replicative person could infect another 5 (or more) who could infect another 5 (or more).....

(anssuming that the tamiflu has actually prevented spread) we may easily have seen 5-10fold more cases by now without it IMO.

I suppose in Dulwich there will be more concerns if the virus goes beyond the initial school contacts?

i just had my sister to visit who lives around the corner from Dulwich. I was a bit worried but what can you do? So hard to balance sensible action with panic.

All our plague children have gone back to school today! Hurrah.

Yay!

I hope you're not still upset with your friends