To think that people really need to get a grip over the whole swine flu business?

[wannaBe]

Let's face it, we are all going to die. Nobody knows how, nobody knows when.

100 people have died of swine flu. 100 people. And yet people are talking of panic buying/keeping children home from school/wanting to know why flights from meccico have not been stopped.

100 people. worldwide.

I wonder how many people were killed on the roads during that time?

If you're going to catch swine flu, you'll catch it whether you panic about it or not. And given only 100 people have died of it so far, currently, the odds are pretty slim. And even if it reaches pandemic level (such as bird flu/sars didn't but the media were desparately hoping they would) there's still not much you can do about it.

100 people.

seriously.

Exactly ABetaDad just the reason I wear clean, matching underwear...

Sensible words ABetaDad and I am going to take a leaf minesacheese's book and go drag out my matching underwear!

minesacheese - LOL

I wish I had used that line at the end of my risk management course as the final take away message!

Yeah Riven,

Candles
Gas for camping stove
Bottled Water
Matches
La Senza sets in various colours.

Just popped in on this thread. I'm curious to know what you think : I'm supposed to be meeting a friend with my 6mo PFB tomorrow at her house. She got back from Mexico last 6 days ago. Would you go?

Only read teh OP.

Amen, wannabe, for talking sense and having the balls to say it.

My folks are coming through on 7 May. On.a.plane!

From Texas.

OMG, I'm sure their only goal is to kill everyone they come into contact with.

Give.me.a.fucking.break. Seriously.

We were all going to die of SARS a couple of years back.

Well, not everyone died of the Black Plague even. Humankind is still here.

'The US will be interesting as many people over here don't have health insurance.'

Approximately 44m out of 307m do not have health insurance.

And EVERY ER is required by law to provide care whether or not the person has insurance or not.

Believe me, people will go if they are ill.

All over 65s are covered by a socialised programme called Medicare. All indigent are covered by a programme called Medicaid.

If you really want facts, check out the Health Protection Agency website.

A few years ago the government distributed a leaftlet to all households detailing what to do in times of crises. I've moved hose 3 times since then and seem to have lost mine. Could somebody please send/email me a copy?

Well, I know what when my gran's first husband and child died of Spanish Flu in approximately 1920 they were definitely underfed at the least.

No antibiotics, no access to medicine, not even cars to get around.

all this hand wringing and worrying jesus wept such panicky over reactions are more indicative of histrionics than pandemics

The honeymon couple in Scotland seem to be responding well to teatment - so I understand from the news last night. I think this illustrates that provding someone is isolated and treated early it is quite containable.

I was thinking that Riven, any swineflu would have to force its way past my disgusting hayfever and then battle it out.

Abatadad I think you're right (and I know Riven is as well, esp.a s we're away this weekend- cancelt hat and 4 kids in over Bank Hol....arrrghhhhh noooo)

it's a senseible time to remnd our kids to use tissues and wash their hands often (our school doesnt bother before meals I have now discovered),beyond that just be sensibel.

Haven't taken ds4 to gym today though but only coz it's PFB City and he has hayfever, don't ant to cause a panic now! (and because I am arsed lazy )

Of course we're not all going to die. But some people will. The last two flu pandemics in the fifties and sixties killed a million people each worldwide.

And as for 'well bird flu didn't happen'... The point is that the WHO bods and health professionals worldwide have known for years that a new flu pandemic wasn't a question of if but when. They imagined it might be H5N1 coming from Asia but it proved not to mutate easily so as to pass from human to human. But at the same time, the WHO said all along that it could come from somewhere else and was just a question of when.

The key risk here is not everyone dying but twofold: 1. groups who are not normally susceptible to flu getting complications, namely fit, young and healthy adults. The reason for this is that it is typically the immune system's response that creates a massive overreaction to an unknown virus. Older people are likely to have some residual immunity to similar strains and/or like younger children have weakened immune systems anyway. So - like in 1918 Spanish Flu (and indeed in Mexico currently) - the mortality is in young adults.

1. The flu plan is in place and if spread occurs from clusters in other countries than Mexico (ie not just people who have travelled from there but say within the UK) then it is likely to spread quickly. Even if symptoms are mild, the economic consequences will be large. Local authorities may be authorised to close schools and colleges for example, not least as parents and teachers may stay away.

This isn't just scaremongering on the part of the govt, it is advance planning. The modelling suggests that in the worst-case scenario, 750000 people could die in the UK. In the best case model I think the figure is 25000.

No one should be taking individual action at this stage, because only two confirmed cases are present in the UK. It is madness to avoid people and keep kids off school.

But if more human to human cases emerge from these clusters, I am very glad the govt has not stuck its head in the sand. Handwashing and being alert to symptoms (and staying home and ringing NHS direct if they emerge) is the only zombie plan anyone needs right now.

abetadad - I totally agree with most people "have a very a hard time separating probability of a risk occuring from its consequences". Dad worked in the nuclear industry his entire career so I guess it made me less nervous around it. Butw hen I worked for the Dept of Energy (RIP!) on the Public Inquiry into the building of a PWR at Hinkley Point in Somerset, there were endless submission about the consequences of an accident, the long-term genetic effects of radiation from an accident, the effects on nearby populations of an accident, the impact of local weather conditions on the radioactive plume after an accident. The list was endless. But no-one was in the slightest bit interested in the incredibly low probability of it actually happening. It's like not letting your child out of the house in case a lion bounds up the street and eats it .

Unlike nuclear accidents however, a flu pandemic is virtually inevitable, if not this time then next year or sometime after that. Even the possibility of a future bird flu pandemic is real, in addition to the current swine flu concern.

I think it is unfortunate that the word pandemic is used incidentally: all it means is a global spread of the disease. It sounds somewhat like panic, and I reckon there is an effect of people hearing it as 'a disease we should panic about'.

But being sensibly prepared is different from hysteria.