Baffling logic of weather warnings and AIBU to want to cancel short break to lakes this weekend?

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We’re away in the Lake District for the weekend so I’ve been keeping an eye on the weather (using Keswick forecast).
It looks atrocious - torrential rain all day on Friday and Saturday, with wind gusts 50-60 mph on Saturday & Sunday.
What I can’t understand is why there are no weather warnings for the region, while there are warnings in place for areas where the forecast is not so severe (e.g Bristol). I know there are other factors at play that determine where a warning is issued but the absence of a warning in these situations doesn’t help people make the necessary decisions.

I’ll walk in wind and rain but there are limits and it wouldn’t be safe with these winds.

We are supposed to be staying in a static caravan (might think differently if it was a hotel with a spa!). Has anyone successfully cancelled or rebooked in similar circumstances? There is nothing in the T&Cs that gives us the right to but I wonder if it’s worth trying.
I know it’s difficult as the holiday park still has staff to pay etc.. but on the other hand they have had an exceptionally good year.
It’s also not just about actually staying there but travelling by car in awful conditions.

its going to be similar at home and I worry about leaving the house in case of damage while away.

It’s not winter.

And as another poster has said, there are holiday parks in the south who have cancelled guest bookings because of the weather.

Fair enough, it’s autumn

I’m still puzzled by the idea that you might get a refund or a change of date

Maybe you will though- let us know what happens. It’s more like it’s dependent on your terms and conditions than the weather though.

Force majeure won't allow for cancellation. You booked a UK break in October, what did you expect?

The storm is mainly going to be in the South West or so it seems. They do seem to panic more there. We were once on holiday in Canterbury and it was raining all day. DH was wanting to stay at the house we had booked and read his new Terry Pratchett book so i went round Canterbury. The place was dead. In Debenhams the staff were having cups of tea. One of them told me I was brave which made me smile. In the charity shops i was truly welcomed . One of the staff said the weather had made the local paper's news due to the station underpass being flooded out. I went along and there were a few puddles which could be avoided. DH came with me later and we laughed at the report of Torrential rain hits Canterbury .We went back to our place put another jumper on and had a coffee we were soon warm again. People from the North West are hardy souls I reckon. The next day it was the main topic on bus journeys and we just smiled when people talked about the flooded train underpass as though it was totally awash with rain water.

I live in the Lakes, that is fairly normal weather this time of year. What you offen find though is the weather is very changeable, from 1h to the next.

It is nothing to do with panicking, it is to do with potential impacts. SW England has forecast gusts to 70 mph which is enough to bring down trees damage property and cause significant transport disruption. That makes an amber weather warning perfectly reasonable for this area. I do tire of this ooop north darn saaf tribal nonsense.

I wouldn’t want to stay in a caravan in that weather either OP.
To everyone saying to hunker down in a cosy pub etc. one teeny problem with that, you’ve actually got to go out in it.

We stayed at a lovely resort a few years back, The Langdale. Weather was atrocious and our cabin was 10 mins walk to where the restaurant and spa were, the ‘cosy’ pub was down a mud filled lane. We were drenched going for a meal, even in good waterproofs and it was too windy for umbrellas.

Not bad if you’re in a lovely big, self contained country hotel with roaring fires and leisure facilities, otherwise it’s shit.

Weather warnings are given where there is likely to be a greater than average IMPACT. It has nothing to do with the weather itself. At this time of year trees are still in leaf, so a high wind will have a greater impact on an area than it would in deep winter, so you might get a weather warning for exactly the same conditions as wouldn't raise an eyebrow in winter.

Built up areas have more weather warnings than bleak countryside - because structural damage is more likely.

It's a pain when you get nasty weather on holiday, but at the arse end of October you really do take your chances. It could be 20 degrees or it could be 4 degrees, it's purely in the lap of the (weather) gods.

Sounds like she wants to use the weather warning as a reason to ask to reschedule her holiday without having to pay. Which is why she had gone through the T&Cs. Maybe there is no need for a weather warning as the weather won’t be so bad.

You’ve booked the Lakes at the end of October. I suspect the caravan park will take the view that bad weather was obviously likely and that you therefore took that into account when booking.

Edited to say: And I’m not sure they will have had a good season - too hot makes people stay away as much as bad weather.

It’s not really baffling if you read on the MetOffice website what the weather warnings actually mean. They are worked out based on risk to life and risk of economic damage. So severe weather in a sparsely populated rural area may not merit a yellow when similar weather in a heavily populated area does.

There is a handy matrix graph of how weather warnings are determined based on likelihood and impact and it is impact that is often key. So for example the current yellow in southern England has a high (75%) likelihood and a moderate impact which translates to a yellow. The same weather in the lakes might have the same likelihood but only minor impact, which would be a green (ie no weather warning).

Hopefully caravan will have a gas fire in case of power cut, pack a camping lantern too.

As I said in my OP I understand there are other factors at play when it comes to warnings.
As I also said, there was no warning where I live, where the forecast is similar and which is a built up area.

As it happens warnings have now been issued for Saturday and Sunday covering the North of England, which were not in place this morning (but for storm Boelo, not storm Austin)

I don’t think they know the exact track yet, just that it is most likely to hit the southwest. You won’t get a refund so why not wait and see and try not to stress (yet)? There can be a certain amount of over-hype in the media. I hope you get a nice weekend away x

The Met Office are live on YouTube right now, explaining that it's going to be windy everywhere, but no real impacts outside the Amber warning zones, and why.

Go to Zefferelli's in Ambleside one day. They're movie deals are fab, (as is the cashew and pecan nut roast). We went to see Tenzing, it was a great film.

@Scampieverynight yes I said to DH we should take a camping light and power bank in case of a power cut.

@Peachy2005 thanks, it wasn't really from any hype in the media, I’d just been keeping an eye on the forecast.

@Vroomfondleswaistcoat I didn’t have time to watch the whole video but re storm Austin I got the explanation about the jet stream the worst of the wind being on the southern flank of the storm, but it’s storm Boelo that I’m more worried about.

@OldRocker99 i think we went there about 10 years ago, don’t think we’ll be going to Ambleside but thanks for the rec.

What did I expect? I expected to be lucky!

If I’d posted this a few weeks ago, saying that I didn’t want to book to go to the lakes for a couple of days in October because I anticipated bad weather, I expect most people would have told me it would probably be fine.

I’d expect a chance of it being wet & windy but not to this extreme.

Lake District national park post….

It’s closed because it’s almost entirely under trees.

Stay away from heavily wooded areas (like the post says) and you’ll be fine.

South West Cornwall here. We had a restaurant booked this evening, they called us to check we were actually coming after storm warnings. We did go but given the conditions on the road and along the coast, we would have understood if they had cancelled our booking and let their staff go home. When we set out, very wet and windy, with waves over the prom, when we came home, masses of standing water so dangerous road conditions. As far as the forecasts I've seen, it's not going to improve for a few days. If you are worried and would like to cancel or postpone, just talk to your accommodation supplier, see what they can do for you.

I’d also be reading that National Park warning with a pinch of ‘please please please don’t set off on a fell walk and decide it’s a bit windy and call out the Mountain Rescue to come and get you’.

Anywhere with trees (still in leaf) is likely to have increased risk.

Did you contact the property owner and ask if you could change your dates?

I’m stressing enough about driving to Manchester airport at 4am on Sunday morning for a flight, no way would I want to drive up the M6 to the Lakes!