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Lucy Letby - Specifically those who think she is guilty…

832 replies

BEAchDays2 · 23/09/2026 07:30

I’ve just been reading massive amounts of posts of Facebook following the new doc out about LL. (Blame a long train journey!) and it got me thinking, those who still think she is guilty what are your reasons?

It does feel like the tide has turned generally. I haven’t watched the new doc yet, likewise has anyone seen it, and is it worth it?

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Oftenaddled · 16/10/2026 21:48

Firefly1987 · 16/10/2026 21:26

@CheeseNPickle3 Quitting after the second unexpected death would surely make you look guilty though? Who would do that if they weren't involved? Not somebody who'd wanted to be a nurse for years and spent all that time qualifying.

No one even suspected her after just the second death though? I would worry I did something wrong and that I wasn't cut out to be a nurse. I think people would understand that. Not view it as suspicious...I don't think I'd care about my career anymore at that point tbh it would only be bringing me trauma.

Given that she allegedly had lots of methods of harm at her disposal, why would she keep trying a method that wasn't working?

Well not lots of methods that wouldn't be undetectable.

I mean, I wouldn't be guilty so I just wouldn't be in her shoes in the first place would I? It is indeed very hard to show you're not guilty when you are! You don't seem to realise the reason she's in an impossible situation re proving she's not guilty is because she is.

I think it's absolutely fair to know yourself and know you would react that way, but our health service would fall apart if there weren't people who could work through this kind of self doubt too.

Firefly1987 · 16/10/2026 22:26

@Oftenaddled but you're acting like it's a regular occurrence when she is in fact the only nurse around all these suspicious deaths who was then actually accused of causing them...

I wouldn't work in hospice care for example because I wouldn't be cut out for it, doesn't mean I view anyone who does with suspicion! I could maybe do it at a push, with lots of training (that you'd get anyway) but that is a totally different mindset because the deaths are expected. Same with working in A+E. That's not what it was like on Letby's unit, or at least it shouldn't have been.

Dolphin37 · 17/10/2026 22:14

Firefly1987 · 15/10/2026 22:30

She wouldn't need to look up how much air it would take-if it didn't work first time she'd just do it again. As she did multiple times. One of those doctors on the video has something against the NHS because he was let go so it's obvious why he jumped on the Letby bandwagon. Not sure about the other retired doctor but I was not impressed by him.

To accuse someone of murder by this particular method, you'd think the prosecution would have to be a bit clearer on exactly how it would work and have some positive evidence that it actually occurred. Just being there (when "there" is the place you work) shouldn't be enough.

It might've been her place of work but she was not designated to look after some of these babies so it is quite important that they managed to place her cot side just before every collapse (which also rules out scapegoating as how would they know from the off that she was there every time if another colleague was designated nurse?) if it was just her place of work she wouldn't be in rooms she wasn't supposed to be in right before a collapse.

The other experts, reviewing the same notes and evidence, concluded that there were signs that the babies were not doing well and that care was substandard.

I feel like the poor health of these babies has been wildly exaggerated since the trial ended.

Turning this around for a second. If you were LL and you hadn't done anything wrong, how would you defend yourself against the evidence put against you?

I can't really answer that because if I was a nurse I would've quit after probably the second unexpected death on my watch. But if I was to put myself in that hypothetical scenario, I would've begged experts to take the stand on my behalf for a start not gone "actually don't think I'll call anyone bar the plumber" I would've done a lot differently that meant I actually had some sort of defence not some half-hearted attempt to look innocent!

they managed to place her cot side just before every collapse

They didn't even examine "every collapse" in the hospital, let alone place Letby cotside for each. The court wouldn't let the defense get a list of even just the examined collapses (nevermind of all collapses). For some collapses covered in court, e.g. Child B and Child M, she wasn't cotside based on what's known; that's why Dr. Evans had to theorize delayed-murder mechanisms. In general, reliably determining who was cotside did not always seems possible, given that contemporaneous records were sometimes incomplete, and retrospective recollections sometimes conflicted or changed over time.

Dolphin37 · 17/10/2026 23:01

Firefly1987 · 12/10/2026 21:35

I'm not saying they don't have their place or that lay people can do it better every time. It's just so obvious that in this particular case the person is guilty and lay people can see it whilst the statisticians can't. So it means they're not much use here.

I'm just perplexed why they are getting so involved in this case. The police tried to make it into a statistical case and were told no you can't do that, so they didn't. You'd think Jane Hutton would've been happy with this? I don't see what the issue is. All I can ascertain is that they want far more input than was ever going to happen. And Hutton is angry she was fired. I'm sure there are plenty of statisticians out there not sticking their oar into a case they know little about, in which case I have no issue with them.

It's just so obvious that in this particular case the person is guilty and lay people can see it whilst the statisticians can't

But the whole reason statistics exists as a scientific discipline, is that statistical judgements that seem "so obvious" can so easily be incorrect. If you heard that a coin landed "heads" five times in a row, you'd think it's obvious that the coin is biased (more likely to land 'heads' than 'tails'). But that's not actually enough information to conclude that the coin is biased. If it was thrown a thousand times, the chance of a five-head run somewhere in that thousand is not small even if the coin is fair. And if the coin is known to come from a bag in which at most one in a million coins is biased, then the chance that you managed to fish out that one-in-a-million biased coin is still smaller than the chance of a fair coin landing 'heads' five times in a row.

Point is, even on simple examples what seems "so obvious" may not in fact be right, and gut feeling isn't a reliable guide. More so in more complex cases. Once people realized this, they developed statistical approaches that work more reliably than gut feeling. Why throw away all that work and return to judging by your gut?

Firefly1987 · 17/10/2026 23:49

@Dolphin37It was obvious she was a murderer by baby C. Nothing to do with statistics but what happened around his death. The stats overall just back it all up. The statisticians haven't looked at all the other evidence they're just warning against only looking at statistics-ok we'll look at everything else, job done. Maybe the statisticians should try it.

Oftenaddled · 18/10/2026 00:49

Firefly1987 · 17/10/2026 23:49

@Dolphin37It was obvious she was a murderer by baby C. Nothing to do with statistics but what happened around his death. The stats overall just back it all up. The statisticians haven't looked at all the other evidence they're just warning against only looking at statistics-ok we'll look at everything else, job done. Maybe the statisticians should try it.

So obvious the chief expert witness later conceded he'd mistaken wind for evidence of murder? And couldn't explain how he knew it was murder otherwise, but "if you know you know". https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/dec/20/my-kind-of-case-intense-focus-falls-on-lucy-letby-trial-expert-witness

I wouldn't pick Child C as an obvious case at all.

‘My kind of case’: intense focus falls on Lucy Letby trial expert witness

Dr Dewi Evans’s evidence has been criticised, even ridiculed, but he maintains his work stands up to scrutiny

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/dec/20/my-kind-of-case-intense-focus-falls-on-lucy-letby-trial-expert-witness

Dolphin37 · 18/10/2026 22:21

Firefly1987 · 17/10/2026 23:49

@Dolphin37It was obvious she was a murderer by baby C. Nothing to do with statistics but what happened around his death. The stats overall just back it all up. The statisticians haven't looked at all the other evidence they're just warning against only looking at statistics-ok we'll look at everything else, job done. Maybe the statisticians should try it.

It was obvious she was a murderer by baby C. Nothing to do with statistics but what happened around his death. The stats overall just back it all up.

If it were obvious it wouldn't need backing up. No one would bother with statistical arguments if Letby had been filmed stabbing someone. Such a death would not be labeled merely "suspicious". It's precisely because such clear-cut evidence is lacking, that people repeatedly turn to statistics.

we'll look at everything else, job done. Maybe the statisticians should try it.

No, experts should make findings in their field based on data from their field only. Otherwise we get things along the lines of, "mottling + collapse does not mean air embolism, but mottling + collapse + facebook searching does", and that then gets touted as a "medical" opinion and given the corresponding customary deference, despite not being based on just medical evidence. Statisticians should stick to answering whether specific statistical inference from specific data is valid or not. E.g. if a fingerprint expert concludes that a fingerprint from the crime scene can't be reliably matched to a given suspect using current methods, the conclusion does not become wrong if the suspect is later proven by some separate evidence to be guilty.

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