To ignore credit card eligibility percentages when applying?

[YourEagerBeaker]

I never really understand why people get so hung up on eligibility percentages. If a checker says 30% chance/50% chance/60% chance/90% chance… the actual outcome for you is still binary. You either get the card or don’t get the card. That’s it.

So I’ve never paid much attention to the percentages themselves. Obviously a higher percentage might suggest a greater likelihood of success across a large group of applicants.
But as an individual, you’re either approved or you’re not.

AIBU to think people sometimes overanalyse these percentages when the end result is ultimately the same?

But surely those percentages are specifically applicable to your credit profile. Eg for me some I am guaranteed approval - I would assume they are not guaranteeing approval to everyone, what they are saying is based on my known profile (eg in clearscore) I am guaranteed approval/ 95% likely to be accepted.

therefore I would apply for one with either guaranteed or 95% because then I don’t want to have a heap of credit search’s on my record for nothing.

I just run my search through MSE and go for the one with the longest intetest free period that I am pre-authorised for.

Applications that fail affect your credit rating, I believe, since they involve a full credit check.

Agreed. They are totally pointless.

People have to weigh up the probability of acceptance based on their current credit score and how many times their credit has been checked recently, etc.

It's important to consider if you think you might want to apply for another type of loan, mortgage or anything else that requires a credit check.

Does it come up on your credit report that you have applied and been rejected?

Exactly this. Why would you risk the impact on your credit score of multiple checks rather than going with one with a higher probability of succeeding? You'll be offered less preferential rates of interest when you do secure credit and, if you intend to mortgage/remortgage etc this could impact your ability to do so at all. Your risk profile will change for lots of companies who you may want to do business with, limiting your options or making credit more expensive.

No, but each hard credit check can impact your score and multiple ones in quick succession s a flag to lenders.

The point about using the probability as a guide is that it's tailored to you. So x number of people with a similar profile have been successful.

The OP seems to be conflating the likelihood of something happening with the number of possible outcomes. Just because the outcome is binary, doesn't mean one can't be far more likely than another.

It can harm your credit rating to be turned down, especially more than once. So this is useful info for anyone who has concerns over whether they will be approved. If your situation is very straightforward and your credit rating is very good, it's less useful.