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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think most serious incidents are preceded by warning signs?

36 replies

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:06

I don’t mean that everything bad is predictable or that people are to blame for not spotting things. But I’ve been thinking about how often, in hindsight, major incidents - accidents, conflicts, breakdowns, even crises, seem to have earlier warning signs that were minimised, normalised or ignored at the time.
Sometimes those signs only make sense looking back and sometimes they’re uncomfortable to act on.

AIBU to think we’re often taught to downplay early signals rather than take them seriously?

OP posts:
iamtryingtobecivil · 16/05/2026 17:09

Sounds like hindsight bias.

Maybe in some instances there is ‘don’t make a fuss/rock the boat’ mindset hoping it’s wrong or goes away as it’s too much of an uncomfortable truth or effort to address

lightand · 16/05/2026 17:09

I have put YABU
re the taught to down play stuff.

But toally agree with you re early warning signs.
I cant understand why people ignore them.

A bit like people not doing exercises when they are prescribed by a physio.

MissyB1 · 16/05/2026 17:10

I think some people don’t listen to their gut instincts, they doubt themselves.

Fandango52 · 16/05/2026 17:11

What do you mean by this? I think it’s sometimes true, but not always! For instances, sometimes people are diagnosed with - or die of - serious illnesses or conditions that they develop with no warning signs.

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:16

Fandango52 · 16/05/2026 17:11

What do you mean by this? I think it’s sometimes true, but not always! For instances, sometimes people are diagnosed with - or die of - serious illnesses or conditions that they develop with no warning signs.

I agree not everything has warning signs, some things are genuinely sudden/random.
I was more talking about how often people later say things like “looking back, there were signs something wasn’t right.”

OP posts:
efeslight · 16/05/2026 17:18

I think there are often warning signs prior to a disaster. There is the swiss cheese model, when all possible problems align on one occasion, when prior to that one occasion the problems have all occurred but not all at the same time.

Fandango52 · 16/05/2026 17:18

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:16

I agree not everything has warning signs, some things are genuinely sudden/random.
I was more talking about how often people later say things like “looking back, there were signs something wasn’t right.”

Can you give an example? This is quite a broad topic!

BillieWiper · 16/05/2026 17:19

Well with conflicts there's obviously a reason and it'll have been building up to that level. With accidents, genuine ones, there is probably not really much warning.

Things like mechanical failures in theme parks, on ships, planes etc will also always have reasons behind them. Something has gone wrong at least once in a process that's supposed to be very robust.

As for people dying...well my dad had a heart attack and claimed he was fine, was in hospital for a few days and came home. Two months later he had a fatal one. I should've seen the first one as a warning sign but it wasn't like I could've somehow stopped him dying. But I guess I shouldn't have been so shocked. But I was only a child.

So yeah. Usually there are sequences of events that lead up to something major happening. But it doesn't mean you'd be able to stop it. At least you hopefully learn from what went wrong for next time.

Uricon2 · 16/05/2026 17:20

Sometimes the warning signs are there but actually intervening/doing something at the stage where some will see them and some won't is another matter.

WW2? Yes, everyone should have been able to see where Germany was heading, but there was an understandable desperation to avoid another conflict after the horrors of WWI.

Personal example? I ignored the signs of developing sepsis with a temp of over 40 and my kidneys packing up because it was the weekend and I'm a full time carer for DH. If a medical friend hadn't questioned me closely via Whatsapp about the symptoms and insisted I called an ambulance that minute or they would, I'd be dead.

Hindsight is 20/20. We are human and screw up, accidentally, at times.

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:25

Fandango52 · 16/05/2026 17:18

Can you give an example? This is quite a broad topic!

Things like repeated safety concerns before major accidents, escalating behaviour before relationship breakdowns or violence, burnout signs before someone completely crashes mentally, institutional problems that people internally knew about before scandals come out. Not that every bad thing is predicable but more that hindsight often reveals patterns/signals that were minimised or rationalised at the time

OP posts:
Fandango52 · 16/05/2026 17:28

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:25

Things like repeated safety concerns before major accidents, escalating behaviour before relationship breakdowns or violence, burnout signs before someone completely crashes mentally, institutional problems that people internally knew about before scandals come out. Not that every bad thing is predicable but more that hindsight often reveals patterns/signals that were minimised or rationalised at the time

That’s still really broad - you’ve mentioned four different things. The consensus so far seems to be that some, but not all, serious incidents are preceded by warning signs. May I ask why you’ve started this thread? Are you doing some academic research or something?

Grammarninja · 16/05/2026 17:29

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:25

Things like repeated safety concerns before major accidents, escalating behaviour before relationship breakdowns or violence, burnout signs before someone completely crashes mentally, institutional problems that people internally knew about before scandals come out. Not that every bad thing is predicable but more that hindsight often reveals patterns/signals that were minimised or rationalised at the time

I get you, Op. Looking back on most tragedies, there's an element of, it could have been avoided if people had given weight to the incidents preceding it.

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:33

Fandango52 · 16/05/2026 17:28

That’s still really broad - you’ve mentioned four different things. The consensus so far seems to be that some, but not all, serious incidents are preceded by warning signs. May I ask why you’ve started this thread? Are you doing some academic research or something?

No, not academic research…just a general observation/thought really. I was just thinking about hindsight and how often people later say “there were signs something wasn’t right.”
Not that every serious event is predictable or preventable.

OP posts:
Fandango52 · 16/05/2026 17:36

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:33

No, not academic research…just a general observation/thought really. I was just thinking about hindsight and how often people later say “there were signs something wasn’t right.”
Not that every serious event is predictable or preventable.

Not that every serious event is predictable or preventable.

I think that’s your answer, possibly. If not every serious incident is predictable or preventable, it’s likely it wasn’t preceded by warning signs, so that suggests most serious incidents aren’t preceded by warning signs.

binliner · 16/05/2026 17:38

But that sign only becomes a warning sign if something bad happens & you look back.

Uricon2 · 16/05/2026 17:39

It's true that warnings are often not heeded, like the concerns expressed about the stability of the spoil tip above Aberfan or Ahmad Shah Massoud the Afghan freedom fighter saying that he believed Al Qaeda were planning something very major before his assassination, which was 2 days before 9/11.

These things are so much part of human experience @WryJadeWren that I wonder what you think could be done about them?

Lunarlightning · 16/05/2026 17:41

I don't think such a theory would apply to The Titanic!

GoldMerchant · 16/05/2026 17:45

For every time that a "warning sign" developed into a serious incident, there will be others when the "warning sign" was the end of things. So was it a warning sign or not?

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:46

Uricon2 · 16/05/2026 17:39

It's true that warnings are often not heeded, like the concerns expressed about the stability of the spoil tip above Aberfan or Ahmad Shah Massoud the Afghan freedom fighter saying that he believed Al Qaeda were planning something very major before his assassination, which was 2 days before 9/11.

These things are so much part of human experience @WryJadeWren that I wonder what you think could be done about them?

I don’t think there’s a perfect solution because hindsight obviously makes patterns look clearer than they were at the time. But I do wonder whether people and institutions sometimes normalise discomfort, minimise concerns, avoid awkward conversations or dismiss intuition/signals because acting on them is inconvenient, socially difficult, expensive or uncertain. I’m more musing on human psychology than suggesting every disaster is preventable.

OP posts:
WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:51

GoldMerchant · 16/05/2026 17:45

For every time that a "warning sign" developed into a serious incident, there will be others when the "warning sign" was the end of things. So was it a warning sign or not?

Yeah hindsight changes how people interpret events and not every concern/signal develops into something serious. My point is more that when serious incidents do happen, people often later recognise patterns, concerns or discomforts that were previously dismissed, rationalised or normalised.

OP posts:
BertieBotts · 16/05/2026 17:56

Yes this is true (although also true that it doesn't mean people are at fault for failing to notice signs) and is a major branch of study in psychology.

It's more usually a case that procedures aren't being followed properly because people find them inconvenient, or don't understand the need for them, and there is no oversight by someone who does understand the significance of these things. It is very rarely malicious negligence, although sometimes it is found that someone who was responsible for safety guidance being followed has ignored or dismissed warnings given to them.

And sometimes the signs that something is close to failure can be spotted by an expert, but a layperson/people who interact with or see the item every day wouldn't recognise them necessarily. But it can be incredibly difficult to predict exactly which behaviours or warning signs will lead to disaster whereas which won't, because when you're talking about signs or missed safety protocols which go unnoticed for years, these are usually problems which will only cause disaster when triggered by something which won't happen the vast majority of the time (like you might never find out your seatbelt is defective as long as you don't have a crash, which is why they are checked at MOT).

With every major disaster there is usually some kind of investigation/inquest to see whether lessons can be learned from it. And most safety regulations are, as they say, written in blood.

The thing is that the way we understand risk as humans is calibrated much more to risks which are highly likely, like getting burned by sticking your hand into a fire, so safety precautions like a fireguard for young children make sense, but risks which are much less frequent, like a building fire, are difficult for people to process in the same way and so things like propping open a fire door or locking a fire exit just seem like ordinary/practical things to do day to day and it's only in the event of a disaster where these things are found to have contributed to deaths that they are looked at and people say how terrible, this should have been done differently, it was a disaster waiting to happen.

In general we take our cues to act from how people around us are acting e.g. there is a study where they wanted to know how people would respond to signs of fire by asking study participants to sit in a waiting room which was also half filled with actors. When the actors responded with panic to a smoke alarm, the participants evacuated the room. When the actors ignored the alarms, the participants also ignore them. Even when smoke was pumped under the door of the next room, the results are the same. So following what the majority seem to be doing is highly influential on people's behaviour, even if they have cause to believe their life might be at risk.

There is also the bystander effect, which is where people don't raise concerns because they assume that somebody else will have already done so.

There is a very good book discussing some of these themes called In The Heat of the Moment by Sabrina Cohen-Hatton.

auserna · 16/05/2026 17:59

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:16

I agree not everything has warning signs, some things are genuinely sudden/random.
I was more talking about how often people later say things like “looking back, there were signs something wasn’t right.”

Surely that's simply the definition of the "benefit of hindsight"?

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 18:04

auserna · 16/05/2026 17:59

Surely that's simply the definition of the "benefit of hindsight"?

To an extent, yes, although I think hindsight also reveals how often people suppress discomfort, minimise concerns or avoid acting on things because uncertainty is easier to live with in the moment.

OP posts:
Greenwriter76 · 16/05/2026 18:07

WryJadeWren · 16/05/2026 17:16

I agree not everything has warning signs, some things are genuinely sudden/random.
I was more talking about how often people later say things like “looking back, there were signs something wasn’t right.”

Hence the saying, ‘hindsight is a wonderful thing’

Foresight, however, is arguably not a thing for most people because in most case there could be many different consequences for a particular action / symptom / feeling.

Sartre · 16/05/2026 18:10

It’s one of those things. Like when someone gets attacked and they ignored the gut feeling they had for example but it’s hindsight bias. How many times do we ignore gut feelings and nothing happens?