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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

AIBU to wonder how election polling samples are actually gathered?

13 replies

Biffkipandchip · 08/05/2026 01:10

To ask if you’ve ever been polled? The reason for asking is that in all my years of voting I’ve never been ‘sampled’ as I understand it, and all the people I’ve asked have also said they have never been sampled either, or know anyone who has. This makes me wonder where these stats come from?

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mumofoneAloneandwell · 08/05/2026 01:11

Agree, ive never ever been polled 🤔

Biffkipandchip · 08/05/2026 01:18

Yes @mumofoneAloneandwell Had a big discussion round the team of work about this recently and not one person said they had or knew anyone who had. Makes me wonder if it’s all an elaborate media stunt?!

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Confusedmeanderings · 08/05/2026 02:11

I've worked as part of an exit poll for 2 elections now. It is all very regulated. Firstly, the information is collected at the polling station not out on the streets. It isn't done at every polling station, just a selection around the country. You have to stand just outside the polling station. You can't approach anyone going in, just those coming out. I can't quite remember the number now, but I think it's every 10th person. Rather than telling you how they voted, the voter is given a little voting slip with a list of the candidates on and the voter ticks the candidate they voted for. Then it is put in a ballot box. At periodic points during the day, the votes are counted and the results phoned through to a central office

JustAnotherWhinger · 08/05/2026 02:12

It’s always done where we vote. Haven’t taken part the last few times as the canvasser has been someone I know.

Biffkipandchip · 08/05/2026 07:22

@Confusedmeanderings I’m confused lol. If the information is collected at the polling station, why is it collected weeks ahead of the election? What polls are they quoting on the news weeks ahead of a big election?

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Sartre · 08/05/2026 07:25

Confusedmeanderings · 08/05/2026 02:11

I've worked as part of an exit poll for 2 elections now. It is all very regulated. Firstly, the information is collected at the polling station not out on the streets. It isn't done at every polling station, just a selection around the country. You have to stand just outside the polling station. You can't approach anyone going in, just those coming out. I can't quite remember the number now, but I think it's every 10th person. Rather than telling you how they voted, the voter is given a little voting slip with a list of the candidates on and the voter ticks the candidate they voted for. Then it is put in a ballot box. At periodic points during the day, the votes are counted and the results phoned through to a central office

This. I have been polled. I actually think it was the first time I ever voted so it will have been the Miliband Cameron election. They approached me as I walked out (as mentioned here) and asked me to write down who I voted for. I didn’t have to tell them obviously.

Jellycatrabbit · 08/05/2026 07:26

I've been polled on the day - as described above, someone with a clipboard and some sheets of paper just outside the polling station. That was in a big busy city centre polling station. I now live in a rural village with low voter turnout, not convinced I'd be surveyed again.

Chersfrozenface · 08/05/2026 07:27

Biffkipandchip · 08/05/2026 07:22

@Confusedmeanderings I’m confused lol. If the information is collected at the polling station, why is it collected weeks ahead of the election? What polls are they quoting on the news weeks ahead of a big election?

The ones collected months and weeks beforehand are voting intention polls. You can read how IPSOS do them here
https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/ipsos-political-polling-methodology

The ones collected at polling stations are called "exit polls".

Sartre · 08/05/2026 07:30

Biffkipandchip · 08/05/2026 01:18

Yes @mumofoneAloneandwell Had a big discussion round the team of work about this recently and not one person said they had or knew anyone who had. Makes me wonder if it’s all an elaborate media stunt?!

It isn’t. Data analysts work hard on it. Sometimes they get it wrong as with Brexit, mostly they’re close. It’s based on a few things like yougov polls, media coverage (e.g Mandelson scandal, antisemitism, everyone loves Reform), statistical modelling, polling averages etc. A lot goes into it, it isn’t just random made up nonsense.

lxn889121 · 08/05/2026 07:46

Exit polls = After voting

Polling = Before voting.

There are many methods and approaches to generating the sample (group of people) for the polls.

Bear in mind the samples are very small. think of a few thousand, so your chance of being polled, 2000 out of 40+ million) is very small, even if it was entirely random.

In terms of how they reach people, it used to be on the street or by phone (it still is in some cases) but now it is mostly online, done by asking people to sign up to a polling organization.

Then instead of being the more traditional random sampling method, now it is mostly stratified (quota) sampling, where they basically try and construct a small group, that represents the bigger group.

So for example, in their 2000 people, they want the same % of men, of women, of ages, of ethnicities, of wealth, of regions etc. or whatever metric they think impacts voting.

If done correctly you end up with a small sample that is mostly representative of the general population, and the vote given by the smaller group, matches what the bigger group will do.

To make it even more accurate, pollsters/news agencies will then accumilate lots of these polls, and average them out (removing outliers) to create an overall bigger aggregate poll.

There are obvious times where this goes wrong (Brexit, 2016 election, trump v1 etc.) but overall, over the past half a century stratified/quota based polls have proved very accurate and the statistics and methods behind them are solid.

lxn889121 · 08/05/2026 07:50

If you want to be polled.. just go join the YouGov website, and you can take part in their polls...

Biffkipandchip · 08/05/2026 10:19

Thanks for explaining ☺️ this has helped a lot

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dizzydizzydizzy · 08/05/2026 10:34

The exit poll (from the polling station) is usually considered the make accurate prediction. But there are many other ways polling companies can pick s sample before an election. Most of them have online panels and they can select people from the panel by certain demographics, such as postcode, income, ethnicity, age, sex etc to represent the population as a whole, or you could select people at random from the electoral roll. There may well be various types of weighting involved too eg the researchers will probably consider that some types of people are more likely to vote than others. It’s very scientific and there are almost certainly all sorts of theories on how to select the best sample.

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