AIBU to very nervous about what Reeves is doing to the economy?

[ProudAmberTurtle]

The data for the last financial year is out and, for the first time in British history, the benefits bill (£333 billion) was higher than income tax receipts (£331 billion).

This didn't even happen during financial crises like when the banks were bailed out in 2008-09, or during Covid when the government paid private sector staff's wages.

What's worse is that the government did not predict this and the benefits bill is projected to rise significantly over the next three years to about £390 billion.

In fact, from what I can understand, income tax receipts have always been significantly higher than the benefits bill, and there's always been an understanding between the two main parties since the 1940s that that needs to be the case for an economy to function properly.

I've worked very hard for more than a quarter of a century and always plan for the future, ie paying the maximum in NI so that my partner and I will receive the full state pension. For the first time in my life, this year the amount I'm earning in savings is going up at below the rate of inflation, even though I've got the highest interest rate available, because I've hit an income tax threshold (£50k) which means 40% of everything I gain in interest goes to the Treasury. This means my savings are actually depreciating in value.

AIBU to think this is just the start? That it's inevitable that taxes will have to rise even further and the state pension will be cut?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/04/04/labour-welfare-bill-income-tax-revenue/

It's actually only 34 pages and your link wasn't to it, but to a summary, which I read

This is not the case, only about 1/3 on UC work. However, when taken together with the number of people on other income related benefits I.e those who haven’t been migrated to UC, the number is around 60%

Here's all 82 pages

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e6Ll4p9Sldmg_VTxJR5FGiROC6VeFicp/view

Let me know what you think

Where did you get that calculation? Families that aren’t in work will still be under the benefit cap so unlikely they will see a difference if renting. Working families however will see a difference.

It is a disaster. You do realise income tax is intended to pay for more than just benefits, don’t you?

Let me tell you about my situation.

16 years ago I had a great career. So did DP. Neither of us on benefits. Never claimed in our lives.

DC were born very prematurely, twins. Birth trauma. They are both autistic but with associated learning disabilities. At 16 years old DS is still in nappies. Neither of them can prepare food or even have a shower on their own. They couldn’t even go and pop something in the front garden bin. They both need support 24/7. They are with me 24/7.

Three years ago I sold my house, Mum sold hers, and we built an annexe on the new house. Mum and stepdad live in the annexe. Mum has cerebral palsy and dementia. I am her carer and have to be on hand 24/7. Last night she rang me at 1am because she thought she could hear rats outside (imaginary). My stepdad is nearly 80, he’s had a heart attack and more recently bladder cancer. He’s not in good shape - we take him everywhere and I do all his life admin too.

Four years ago DP collapsed at work. A career he absolutely loved in IT. They thought it was a brain tumour but it turned out to be a rare neurological condition. After being bed bound for around 8 months, he’s now trying to get some semblance of quality of life. He still has days when he’s too ill to get up, but if we’re careful and avoid triggers, they’re rarer. He’s not allowed to use any kind of screen, he can’t do anything that involves bending or turning his head frequently, and he can’t be in an environment with bright lights. We have tried and tried to think what he can do but can’t think of anything. Probably some kind of self employment but not sure what. He doesn’t get PIP.

I care for everyone. Until 12 years ago I cared for my dad too. He died of Huntington’s disease.

I am self employed and until Christmas I worked full-time. Copywriting. AI has absolutely killed the industry and I’m struggling for work now after 16 years of having a long list of clients. I switched to copywriting after the DC were born and their disabilities became evident. I gave up my much-loved and well-paid career. My dad also needed care from around this time.

We are constantly on the bones of our arse. I work through the night. I’m earning very little despite working long hours, less than the minimum wage a because AI took what I did. I get very little sleep. We get Universal Credit, and DC get DLA - we are waiting to hear about PIP.

I am so scared for the future. My DC won’t ever be able to work. I can’t get sick because if I do, everything falls down. I’m chronically sleep deprived. Luckily I have AuDHD so I can manage but it’s hard. My life is spent running around after almost-adult DC who will be with me for life, my elderly mum with cerebral palsy, and dementia, and to a lesser extent DP and stepdad. And then I work when everyone else sleeps.

I really really wish we weren’t on benefits but I can’t see a way out. I live in fear of our only lifeline being stripped away. I haven’t had a holiday in 12 years.

When people flag off lazy, shyster benefit claimants I wish they knew what some of our lives were like. I have no options here.

Income tax is just over a quarter of the tax the government receives.

It’s still a negative in terms of passing a threshold for the first time. Plus jobs are an issue.

The irony is, the loudest voices decrying single mothers for having multiple children, tend also to be the ones who want to restrict abortion.

I'm so sorry about your situation. None of this is your fault. Of course a decent society would want and need to support you.

I fear this is the wrong thread for you because someone said above... what was it? Ah, yes. "My sympathy for poverty is zero". 🫠

Jobs are, indeed, an issue. My current one is coming to an end soon and I haven't been successful in securing anything else. The job market is terrible and I am starting to panic.

Don't forgot Cameron, whose campaign of austerity and cuts is responsible for thousands of excess deaths and who enabled the own-goal that was Brexit in the first place!

Yeah lets euthanize everyone over 65 so the dole dossers dont need to look for a job

Of course not but ramping up the welfare bill in favour of all other public spending is not the way to deal with it.

Yes that's exactly what they said. Well done

Plus hammering jobs which is the other side of the which is bigger measure.

Oh come on @SpidersAreShitheads, you could work if you really wanted to. Take in ironing - that would give you something to do when you’ve been woken at 1am and you can’t get back to sleep. You just need the right mindset. 😜

But seriously, your situation is awful and people don’t realise how easily it can come about, and how common it is. With every cut they make to benefits, I think of people in your position. It must be terrifying not knowing what happens next. Then people say ‘oh but you’re deserving of it’ as if that makes it ok. As if most people who need a hand up just want a hand out. As if most people don’t see those who have had a whole load of advantages in life and wish they’d had the same. As if most people on benefits are taking 3 annual holidays whilst sipping champagne in their hot tub.

Take care of you. As a fellow preemie mum, with a disabled child I know at least some of what you’ve been through. 💐

So what is?

If lifting people out of poverty so they can afford to spend, which improves the economy isn’t going to work, what do you suggest?

Your particular set of circumstances are hopefully extremely rare and shouldn’t preclude discussion of the benefits system as a whole, which is obviously unsustainable now.

As opposed to triple locking pensions so those over 65 can enjoy their cheap cruises in term time whilst children starve.

Taking money off workers to give to people that don't work doesn't improve the economy. It disincentivises work for everybody and screws the economy, as we are seeing.

What you do is slash welfare and employment taxes. Incentivise work. Incentivise business expansion. Grow the economy. Tax take increases. More money to spend.

The fiscal levers Reeves has at her disposal are fewer now than they were a month ago. Iran is about to do a number on our economy.

No, the pp is correct, it’s a very disingenuous way of arguing - you’re actually avoiding the question and presenting it as some sort of win.

Why don’t you make some arguments yourself. Do you even know what the arguments are other than macro economic climate waffle?

Pensioners are not all able to do cheap cruises

Pensioner poverty rates tend to be lower in Western and Northern Europe.

However, Switzerland (19.8%) and the UK (14.9%) stand out with relatively high pensioner poverty rates.

Waffle? Lol