AIBU to very nervous about what Reeves is doing to the economy?

[ProudAmberTurtle]

The data for the last financial year is out and, for the first time in British history, the benefits bill (£333 billion) was higher than income tax receipts (£331 billion).

This didn't even happen during financial crises like when the banks were bailed out in 2008-09, or during Covid when the government paid private sector staff's wages.

What's worse is that the government did not predict this and the benefits bill is projected to rise significantly over the next three years to about £390 billion.

In fact, from what I can understand, income tax receipts have always been significantly higher than the benefits bill, and there's always been an understanding between the two main parties since the 1940s that that needs to be the case for an economy to function properly.

I've worked very hard for more than a quarter of a century and always plan for the future, ie paying the maximum in NI so that my partner and I will receive the full state pension. For the first time in my life, this year the amount I'm earning in savings is going up at below the rate of inflation, even though I've got the highest interest rate available, because I've hit an income tax threshold (£50k) which means 40% of everything I gain in interest goes to the Treasury. This means my savings are actually depreciating in value.

AIBU to think this is just the start? That it's inevitable that taxes will have to rise even further and the state pension will be cut?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/04/04/labour-welfare-bill-income-tax-revenue/

When you interpret what I say as that because you can't comprehend the possibility of a theoretical argument is more accurate.

You posted the op was wrong but your reasons are not really working, regardless of what you personally think about women’s rights.

If you like.

So a person waiting for a hip/knee replacement could get disability benefits for the x months of waiting for the NHS, plus some recovery time? But not qualify for PIP or DLA? Depression? MND? One of our current problems with disability, at least as I read here, is co-morbidities associated with ageing and obesity.

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PIP is incredibly difficult to get. Most people have to appeal to have it successfully awarded. Which means that a panel of experts including a lawyer and at least one doctor make the decision as whether to overturn the decision is correct.

I can tell you that the system at its earliest stage (before appeal) is highly stacked against people with genuine disabilities. I have disabled young adults and have had to do their interviews for them. The person interviewing you steers you in a direction which is designed for you to not even mention the difficulties the person has. Which leads to zero points. I had to steer the conversation myself because otherwise the person on the end of the phone would have been writing stuff that was irrelevant like ‘they don’t use a splint’

Surely we need better distinctions between what qualifies as time-limited, like hip replacements, and what's permanent, as per @MyTrivia's disabled young adults?

@MyTrivia

PIP is incredibly difficult to get. Most people have to appeal to have it successfully awarded.

A quick google finds that 51-55% of initial applications are awarded, so that's the majority who don't need to go to appeal.

That certainly is not the case for people who have ‘invisible’ disabilities.

Also 51-55% is about half - it’s hardly the majority you’re spinning it as . Those half will have usually taken advice on how to show they need the support. It’s not an easy thing to do and if you don’t understand how the points are awarded and how (if at all) you fit into that system, your application will fail.

Quite. And given that 70%+ of appeals are successful is testament to the fact that it is not easy to get, contrary to popular belief!

Disability isn't always that black and white though and it is impossible to attempt to simplify it. All it would do is have some who are genuinely disabled miss out.

It can already be tough to get DLA/PIP such as a lot of people are initially turned down and then go on to win their case at tribunal.

It also can already take months to get DLA/PIP. In your system, just as people were getting DLA/PIP, it would be taken away from them unless they went through yet another process which would also likely take months and months.

Of course it’s ridiculous. In the same way that any single issue vote is ridiculous. It’s sensible to determine your vote on a range of different issues and go for whichever group of politicians is aligned with your view on those.

Sorry to hear that but I don’t blame you.

The high earners/high tax payers have left in their droves.

So why was none of this sorted under all those years of the Tories?

But they don’t. Small employers are fed up with interviewing people, even taking them on and then they disappear of the face of the earth.

I work with the local job centre when we have a vacancy. Last time one we interviewed one chap told me bold as brass he worked out in his 50’s he could do better in benefits than being a labourer as he got older and had no intention of going back to work before his pension kicked in.

What percentage of millionaires has left?

Tbf manual labour gets far more difficult as you age and pick up injuries, people really do age out. Its a real issue for those that don't have a path to move into something less physical.

Because the Tories were busy cutting Government spending to reduce the budget deficit from 10% in 2010 to 1.9% in 2019.

What does this mean in practical terms?

And the decline in military spending has taken place under successive Governments (both parties) since the Wall came down in 1989. Compare the size of the Fleet and its readiness v the Falklands campaign in 1982....

It's a complex picture with very little data available from the Government on it (for obvious reasons):
For UK nationals in 2025 around 16,500 millionaires (or0.5% of millionaires) left the country.

But for non doms (where ties to the UK are less strong) then it's between 5 and 10%.

Although these figures seem low, it is worth recognising that because of their high tax contributions this has a disproportionate effect.

And what was it when they left power? And why is building up the navy, housing etc only a problem under labour?

It means that defence spending as a % of gdp was cut between 2010 and 2019 meaning less soldiers, less ships and less aircraft.

Most people have red lines in who they vote for. I would never vote for someone who pretends or believes that men can become women. And anyone who does vote for someone like that can't really complain if that person gets elected and turns out to be an idiot