AIBU to very nervous about what Reeves is doing to the economy?

[ProudAmberTurtle]

The data for the last financial year is out and, for the first time in British history, the benefits bill (£333 billion) was higher than income tax receipts (£331 billion).

This didn't even happen during financial crises like when the banks were bailed out in 2008-09, or during Covid when the government paid private sector staff's wages.

What's worse is that the government did not predict this and the benefits bill is projected to rise significantly over the next three years to about £390 billion.

In fact, from what I can understand, income tax receipts have always been significantly higher than the benefits bill, and there's always been an understanding between the two main parties since the 1940s that that needs to be the case for an economy to function properly.

I've worked very hard for more than a quarter of a century and always plan for the future, ie paying the maximum in NI so that my partner and I will receive the full state pension. For the first time in my life, this year the amount I'm earning in savings is going up at below the rate of inflation, even though I've got the highest interest rate available, because I've hit an income tax threshold (£50k) which means 40% of everything I gain in interest goes to the Treasury. This means my savings are actually depreciating in value.

AIBU to think this is just the start? That it's inevitable that taxes will have to rise even further and the state pension will be cut?

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/04/04/labour-welfare-bill-income-tax-revenue/

let's be realistic - children who are growing in families needing this cap are statistically unlikely to become contributors. Some will, but majority will still require state support

🤔 I shudder to think how our current glorious leaders would have managed it.

Ah so the poor shouldn't be allowed to breed as their offspring will almost definitely be a burden?

Yep, which just incentivises me to cut my hours and retire asap. Not sure that’s what they intended.

So essentially you're making scenarios up and getting annoyed by them?

This is such a ludicrous statement. No mention of Covid, no mention of Labour’s employment destroying policies, no mention of Covid.

Much as you might try, there are multiple contributing factors, including Labour’s economic incompetence

There are lots of student flats being built here where I live in Scotland but the increase in accommodation is needed due to the increase in overseas students needed to prop up our underfunded universities. If you want education on the cheap we need more overseas students.

I don’t understand the complaining locals when yet another student housing block gets planning permission. Getting students into these housing blocks gets them out of private rented accommodation that families traditionally lived in. Win win.

Nope, you’re the one coming out with ludicrous statements. We get it, Bexit and tories get nul points from you, but you are burying your head over all the other factors.

I'd already mentioned the tory mishandling of covid, and the Putin's war. And Trumps instability.

Tories don't get null points. I've already said I'm a big fan of gay marriage that they brought in.

Ik no mention of Labour’s policies.

Any evidence to back that assertion up?

I mentioned that they should be getting closer to Europe. A free movement agreement would help alleviate many of the economic issues.

Did you read the thread?

AFAIK, there's no reliable way of preventing it.

Nothing of the damaging anti growth policies brought up on this thread and by business owners.

Why is it hard to say it? It won’t change anything if you do, it’ll just look like you’re not blocking out the obvious.

But we could bring back the 2 child cap. That would atleast discourage it, no?

The cut to NI bought in by Hunt was a political trap for Labour. He bought it in before the election knowing that it was unaffordable and would need to be reversed. Labour made the mistake of promising no tax rises whereas most people could see that they are inevitable.

You said it was rare for circumstances to change unexpectedly.
Again. It isn't.

Super fast vaccine rollouts. Great 2021 unlockings. Glad they pushed back on SAGE

Let the bodies pile high
Parties in downing street
Christmas 2020 lockdown dithering

I could go on but I don't want to rehash old points

“Benefits” includes pensions

"such a welfare state" is as impossible as 150%. We either have one or we don't; it's not a question of degrees. And I would bet my house you'd hate to live in a non-welfare state. They're dangerous, violent places.

Of course there's degrees to everything. Help the poorest and disabled. Don't pay Generational unemployment aS an example

But are these babies going to be taxpayers? As we’ve now seen, not working and receiving benefits (and indeed accommodation) is more lucrative than working in a modest job, so why would people not carry on in this way?

Also for example 80% of Pakistani-heritage women do not work. So no taxpayers there. Or nurses/care workers etc.

Plus immigrants turn into old people too - needing pensions and healthcare. And so it goes on.

That 80% figure is a lie. Where did you get it from?

https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/work-pay-and-benefits/unemployment-and-economic-inactivity/unemployment/latest/#by-ethnicity-and-gender