To think this is a real possibility in the future? (State pension)

[TheOtherBoleynSister]

I am 34 and ever since I started working people have said don’t rely on there being a state pension. So I’m pretty pessimistic about it.

I honestly believe that for people under 40, the universal state pension (paid regardless of income or capital to those who have paid NI for a certain number of years) won’t exist. That there will be no qualifying ‘age’, and instead older people will be the same as the rest of the population when it comes to benefit eligibility ie. Have to be certified as too ill or physically unable to work, and get UC if income is low and savings are below £16k. In other words, being a certain age won’t entitle us to any benefit like it does now.

In this awful very bleak future, older people who can no longer work, who have savings/money above the threshold or private pensions, will need to rely solely on the money they have unless or until they get to the point where they now qualify for benefits.

Of course I don’t want this to happen, but with all the stories about the cost of pensions and the rising number of older people it feels inevitable. But the reality is many people’s private pensions won’t be nearly enough to last (but maybe they will be forced to spend them before any help), and there’s also talk in the press of some wanting to do away with ‘generous’ public sector pensions (which are not as generous as they used to be, albeit they are better than a lot of private schemes).

I am quite aware of pensions due to older relatives and friends who are of that age, but many people my age haven’t a clue about them or how they work. I do think we will be seeing a real disaster in less than 30 years, but people don’t care as it’s someone else’s/ tomorrow’s problem.

Create and consume art, be with their families, undertake education, do research, learn new skills, do exercise? Any of the million things that are actually good for your mental a spiritual wellbeing that no-one has time to do because they're too busy trying to keep the roof over their heads??

I mean I doubt we'll lever get to the point of UBI and robots doing all the work because capitalism and basic human greed, but the idea it would be a problem because 'what will people do all day' shows such an astounding lack of imagination I cannot even.

This is what childhood and retirement is for!

Children and teens go to school and learn new skills, spend time with their families, do research, exercise - and they aren’t all beacons of calm balanced mental and spiritual health.

When has any group of humans ever been this?

At the moment yes. The OP was describing a possible future. There is literally no reason for human adult existence to be toiling for money apart from capitalism. We live in a world with ample resources and increasingly sophisticated technology. AI and robotics are going to destroy the capitalist model, because in a world where the rich and powerful don't need the masses to generate wealth for them that model breaks down. What we cannot yet know is how that will play out. There are utopian and dystopian versions of that future, just as there were for the industrial revolution, and humans being humans we will probably end up somewhere between those poles.

I mean from a capitalist resource-holder's point of view, the problem with the post-AI revolution, high medical innovation world is too many people, living too long, getting increasingly angry at their rapidly diminishing quality of life and access to opportunity. I don't think it's difficult to see where that version ends up.

But from the capitalist unit of production's POV, the robots coming and taking all our jobs could be either a good thing or a bad thing, depending on how the free-d up resource is distributed. What would people do with their lives if they didn't have to scrabble for survival and material status? We've never had that world. I for one would be interested to see what it would look like. And I can guarantee you I would NOT run out of worthwhile things to do if I didn't have to go to work every damn day!

Well no because they have stressed out, distracted, overwhelmed parents, atomised families, a constant message of impending doom from teachers and the media about how difficult it is going to be to find work in the future, environmental catastrophe and geopolitical instability fed them constantly by their phones, and are the premium target market for an absolutely amoral feral capitalism (see recent Meta trial for evidence of this). Humans have never had to live like this before. It isn't good for us.

Also o-one's saying it would make everyone "beacons of calm balanced mental and spiritual health". That's hyperbole and setting up a straw man. I'm simply saying that it is not hard to imagine how people might gainfully fill their time if given the capacity to do so.

I am also in my early thirties and do not believe there will be a state pension by the time I get there. I think this is incredibly sad as people work the best years of their life in belief that they will get a break and help in their older years. But I also believe that changes will happen much earlier and that even people who are pensioners now will be affected. I think the triple lock will go it will just need a brave government to push it through. I can also imagine more means testing of the pension starting sooner than people think.

The idea that the working population can support an ever increasing elderly population is just going to put more and more pressure on the young. Who are already paying record high housing costs per proportion of their income, have an awful job market, high cost of living and are now at risk of loosing their jobs to AI.

It’s not just pensions it’s also the NHS and social care. I work in social care and we take up more and more of the councils budget each year. It’s difficult as people are paying more than ever in council tax and yet services are getting worse for them but the money is just eaten by adult social Care. In my area alone we expect to see an 80% increase in over 85 year olds in the next 15 years which is going to bring massive pressures to social care. At that point is council tax just a social care insurance policy. I don’t know what the answer is but we need to have a serious think about how we fund our ageing population and I don’t think it’s fair to just carry on as we are and dumping all the problems on the younger generation.

They will fill it with sex, gambling, excess, vices, one-up man ship and violence - as humans have always done. With too much time on their hands.

But you aren’t explaining or proving why it’s impossible, where are you getting this information from?

What ridiculous hyperbole with nothing to back it up.

No offence to the OP, been a good chat, but this entire post is hyperbole with nothing to back it up. I’m not aware of any political party that has said they will scrap state pension as many posters have pointed out any party that does will be unelectable.

Just because that's how you fill your free time doesn't mean everyone would pal.

There absolutely won’t be cross party agreement or support from the public as those with half a brain know how crap private pensions are and how crucial state pensions are.

Look at the internet!

just this comment “one up manship” - “I wouldn’t do that not like you”

(I am actually an artist so I do consume art a lot if which is debauched by the way)

It’s just when people retire they are usually to physically weak to cause any real trouble.

Work holds society together without it there would be/will be utter chaos. Always has been.

Increases substantially?

Yes by the highest of the three measures of inflation.
More than my salary (still working) and my private pension

You speak as if the way people behave now is not entirely contingent on the circumstances they find themselves in. It's like people who look at the success of 50 Shades of Grey and say "look women do love being dominated", as if that preference has dropped out of a clear blue sky rather than being shaped within patriarchy. We simply don't know how people would behave if liberated from capitalism in a high tech world because we've not seen it. Time will tell. But I'm pretty sure there'll have to be some sort of revolution first.

What on earth do you mean by 'debauched'? bit of a 19th century word.

Then those jobs would have to pay enough so that people would chose to do them.

It could be a perfect storm in about 15-20 years with many people living longer due to advances in health care / cancer treatment, the impact of AI on jobs, fewer young people in work due to mental health / ASD therefore fewer tax payers but a massive population of 70+ pensioners whose state pensions need paying. No idea what the answer is but what we currently think of as retirement will likely only be afforded by a small minority of people. I’m fully expecting to have to work until I’m 70/75 to top up my pension but in some ways, as long as the job is not full time and not too physically demanding, maybe that’s not a terrible thing but of course that presumes those types of jobs haven’t been eliminated by AI.

@summershere99 I do wonder what impact UPF, chemicals, plastics and all the other toxic things in our environment will have on the extension of life span. Haven’t they already said younger (or mine? Millennial) generations aren’t expected to live longer?

You assume that economic growth will continue for many decades into the future, that money invested will give a return.
With climate change, topsoil depletion, water shortages, and above all peak oil, that assumption is questionable.

I very much doubt it is questionable. The stock market always bounces back eventually. And how else do you make your money grow without the government stealing a huge chunk in tax? Also the more people who invest in the stock market the more money companies have to grow and make more money which benefits everyone’s pensions.

What I know about 50 Shades of Grey is that it would never have been the success it was without the invention of the kindle - no one could see what you were reading - given the option of privacy many people chose to read hardcore erotica on their daily commute (women mainly) - which is part of the predication that humans are attracted to money and sex - because let’s face it if the man had been slight in a messy bedsit it wouldn’t have scratched that fantasy. Debauchery! Which means a portrayal of pleasurable excess (can be excess of anything really)

Worklife is changing.
Retirement is changing.

The state pension will not be removed, governments will crunch population numbers and it will hit age 70 at some point.

Say you take the working population ages of 20-70
And retirement 70-85
A span of 50 years working population supporting a span of 15 years retirement population

And keel adjusting the numbers accordingly as life expectancy, if life expectancy, increases.

That should be acceptable for a general population.

I think the idea that the public sector are blessed here is a bit fanciful.

There is no doubting that most public sector workers on a defined benefit scheme are onto a better thing than a private sector workers on a contributory pension BUT, we are now almost all underpaid too.

I could double my salary in the private sector and not only would the public lose access to my skills, I’d be acting against the public sector in arbitrations.

I quite like the whole idea of public service but financially, it’s only the pension that keeps me in. If you want to take my pension you can pay me at the market rate or I will leave and the same goes for hundreds of thousands/millions of us.