Keir Starmer's future. Can someone explain please?

[CompetitionMyArse]

So the leader of Scottish Labour has held a press conference calling for KS's resignation. No official word from Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner or Ed Milliband yet but the rest of the cabinet seem to be coming out of the woodwork one by one to rally round KS.

If KS did resign this week would there have to be a general election? I thought I heard a journalist say earlier that there would, but I'm not sure if I caught him correctly. And I'm not sure I understand why/how that would be the case, but I think it's something to do with the timing re: by-elections? Can someone enlighten me please?

Is this why the cabinet are largely coming out in support of Starmer? And why Starmer is hanging on for dear life? Because they know they'll be absolute toast if a GE is triggered?

If he resigned and it didn't need to trigger a general election, do you think we'd hearing different things from people like Lammy and Yvette Cooper?

Possibly it was someone from something like the Daily Express or GB News, someone Reform supporting that actually wants an election. In practice, there would be no legal obligation to call a general election even if Starmer did resign and someone else took over as leader and prime minister - we're not due one this year, and Labour's got enough of a majority to be able to ride it out if the Tories tried going down the vote of no confidence route. The petitions for general elections carry no weight at all, and in practice the King wouldn't dissolve Parliament on his own.

I thought Johnson called a GE when Theresa May resigned?

He called an election because he wanted to and his political antenna told him he would trounce Corbyn. At least it got rid of Corbyn so he did do a service to the Labour Party.

May resigned in July 2019. Johnson called an election at the end of October 2019 (held in December) because it was impossible for him to get Brexit over the line without a majority (remember May had to make a confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP, at vast expense). Farage helped him out at that election by standing down Brexit candidates on the proviso that Johnson would "get Brexit done".

So, Johnson calling an election was nothing to do with May's resignation and everything to do with the deadlock over Brexit.

He was elected leader in July 2019 following May's resignation on June 9th. He called a general election in December 2019.

It doesn't look as though Starmer is going anywhere yet. Interesting that the scandal has had zero effect on Labour's polling so far (polling is already poor, obviously, but it has got no worse it seems).

And the general public who want to replace him? If there was a GE tomorrow it’s very likely Reform would get in. Are you saying that the voters get conned by right wing press and are too stupid to make up their own minds.

I think pro Labour do believe this, on mn in particular.

He’s not out of the woods yet, he’s still got the by elections and local elections to get through. Votes will count.

Streeting said less than a year ago there was no growth plans. Please don’t excuse what he said. He will have known what was going on. What does this say about the u turns, lies etc that the Labour Party made to get into power.

Removing the WFA. My friends Mum was a dinner lady back in the day. She lost it

Messing around with inheirtance tax around farms. If farms need to pay inheirtance tax then the land is very likely to end up in the hands of foreign investors.

Raising NI and NMW. My hairdresser got caught with this and is not likely to survive. Then there won’t be any MW roles for his apprentices.

Labour’s Housing Minister and ex Deputy being investigated for not paying the correct amount of Stamp Duty. Then trying to blame the solicitors.

His Corruption Minister having to resign and the Homeless Minister throwing the towel in because she was found to have removed a tenant, and then advertising her BTL at a higher price.

Some people certainly seem not to be able to join the dots. For example, Farage has said Reform will cut benefits. The significant chunk of his core support who are reliant on benefits seem fine with this and continue to support Reform.

Why?

I think we can look to the US to answer this question. Those suffering terrible hardship from Trump's policies still support him. Mainly because they support his stance on immigration.

I have noticed that too. Never underestimate the general public.

The benefits system need a massive overhaul. Farage is probably the person to do it and maybe Kemi. I liked her idea of scrapping Stamp Duty. Imagine what could happen. People would move, they would employ trades, removal companies etc. Maybe people who cannot afford the SD would take the plunge.

I think pro Labour do believe this, on mn in particular.
I'm not sure if they do but they seem to think that raising Farage as a bogeyman will be enough to make people "come to their senses"
i.e. you don't need to vote for Starmer for positive reasons, you need to vote for him to keep Farage out.
Which is pathetic. It's similar to the Mandelson theory: they didn't appoint PM to be ambassador because he was good for the UK but because they thought that he would handle Trump.
It's reactive rather than proactive, and comes from a position of weakness.

Starmer was voted in because the General Public wanted to give the Tories a bloody nose. Labour weren’t ready to govern hence the numerous u turns and now this mess.

Now if Kemi and Farage do a deal to govern together- in my view they would get a landslide. I am not sure whether Kemi actually wants to govern. She seems to enjoy sticking the knife into Starmer.

It’s easy to say from the sidelines what you would have done and Rayner saying time and time again how it was one rule for them and another for the rest of us.

This class warrior was found doing exactly what she criticised others for doing and was rightly sacked.

And it’s probably best not to try to piss them off continuously and be combative, they get a vote after all.

Re your other post I think most can see the benefit system is onerous, even Labour put out ballooning headlines and tried to make a move to reduce it. Re stamp duty more would downsize.

Yes, a lot of elderly people use the reason/excuse to not move as the cost of SD.

The backbenchers with a high % of people relying on benefits were never going to agree to this. That is the danger if you have higher and higher percentages of people not working or relying on benefits then of course it won’t be voted for.

I am a Conservative voter but it was right that they were voted out. They had descended into chaos. I liked Sunak. I think he would have made a good Chancellor but he was handed a poison chalice.

This lot are a disgrace. Don’t seem to have prepared at all for being in power. I don’t think Starmer is a bad person. He just doesn’t seem very good at domestic politics and has to back down again and again. They must be in echo chambers when they run these ideas by people - who are they asking before they make themselves look stupid by launching something and then having to backtrack.

Not surprised.

If there was a credible and obvious alternative to current Labour leader - Stamer would be gone.

If there was a credible alternative to Labour party - country would go for them in polls and likely election.

In meantime everyone left hoping someone will get their act together at some point.

It's partly where we are demographically and economically and a lack of willingness to be blunt with electorate and partly a complet lack of leadership and willingness to get out front with actual ideas and do anything.

The whole point about politics is keeping the public happy.

Even if you have to deliver strong medicine through conviction politics then you have to sell it in a way that the public realises it is necessary and has to be done.

Without the public on side the relentless pressure (normally applied through the media who generally mirror public opinion) brings down governments.

Benefits do need to be cut. Our welfare system has ballooned out of control, and I say this as a disabled person. Yes, and a university educated Reform voter (gasp!)
Don’t believe everything you read in left wing forums and newspapers.
Our economy is in desperate need of life support, and any incoming government will need to look to trimming the welfare budget if it doesn’t want us to slide into a severe long term recession which would damage each and every one of us.
Oh, and Farage is not Trump.

Why does he wet his pants to align himself with Trump then?

Cutting the welfare bill - will that not make the economy worse as people will have less to spend?

Nothing I see from reform leads me to believe they will be anything less than snouts in the trough.

Don’t believe everything you read in left wing forums and newspapers

What is it that I have said about Reform that you think I have read in a "left wing forum or newspaper"?

I would be amazed if there was a general election. And a change of leader any time soon.
But, he might be persuaded to agree to go to a certain timeline.
He will be mindful the whole country did not vote. Not everywhere had elections.
And often Council elections don’t bring people out, and people use it as a protest vote.
But they were still a slap across the chops.

However, someone does need to have a word with Labour. Looking at what I read in the various newspapers they still have not understood. We must continue with our manifesto. We must deliver on what the people voted for.

No Labour. Labour you got in by default. Because the right were split. Not because the country proactively voted for you.

Grasp that and they might start to get somewhere.