Cost of living....struggles....rubbish!

[IwishIcouldconfess]

Been into Manchester today.

I'll be honest, shops full, restaurants full, pub's standing room only.

I thought as a country we were in a cost of living crisis, not in Manchester, the amount of cocktails, bottles of wine i saw being knocked back today made me wonder, ate things really as bad as as the narrative we're being sold?

I went out tonight, cinema. I rarely go out now but in years gone by it would’ve been dinner, cinema, couple of drinks after. Now it’s cinema and home. Ticket, 1 non alcoholic drink and popcorn was £19. I used to happily spend £100 on an equivalent night out. Can’t justify it now. But I was out.

You'd think it was obvious wouldn't you. But the OP is 'confused' 😵‍💫🙄🙇🏻‍♀️

Global warming doesn't exist because it was nippy today

We get our “big shop” delivered so I only ever have a few bits if I am in a supermarket, usually vegetables. I would be absolutely mortified if someone thought that I had a handful of things because I couldn’t afford other stuff and offered to pay!

People are still going out, yes.

But

They're spending less per night

Staying out for less time - having pre drinks at home

Going out less frequently

Choosing small treats over big spends, so going out for a few drinks instead of saving up for a new sofa

All of these things add up hugely in economic terms

I didn't even grow up here. We grew up in a developing nation and moved here. We were poor growing up and worked hard

People who have disposable income are mostly getting pay cuts in real terms each year and working hard for it. Their standards and expectations are much higher for consumer goods and service now, plus there’s a lack of choice as food and energy costs are so high- restaurants drop like flies in Manchester, probably in London too. People don’t want to compromise on what they spend when they go out and they don’t want to go to a cheap hairdresser and there isn’t one anyway. What they’ll do instead is get a haircut and have an expensive night out eg every six or eight weeks instead of every four. That isn’t a big lifestyle shift for them individually but at scale, it impacts the industries and the workers and the economy.

Also, a lot of the people at the Trafford Centre aren’t spending money, they’ve just gone to stand as much in everyone’s way as they possibly can. (I’m guessing, anyway, based on observing them).

But your experience doesn’t mean social mobility hasn’t gone backwards. Housing is a lot more expensive now for one.

The country isn't "on its knees" as previous posters have claimed. Unemployment has ticked up but it's still well below 2008-2012 levels and far below the 1980s.
Minimum wage is now much higher relative to median income so low paid jobs are not so relatively low paid any more.

That's not to take away from the fact that some people are struggling to cover fairly basic needs. Income from benefits has fallen further behind median incomes. That's a choice though - as a country we elected governments who chose austerity as a reason to reduce benefits relative to earnings. Other choices were possible.

But wealth is complex. Your spending power isn't just about earned income from a job or pension but what other wealth you have. Someone earning 30k with no housing costs has far more spending power than someone earning 30k who is paying rent or a mortgage. Someone earning 30k whose mum provides free childcare has far more spending power than someone else on 30k who has to pay for childcare.

Older people with housing wealth may have downsized and freed up large amounts of cash to splash even if their monthly income from pensions are not high. Or equity release schemes are picking up again for the same reason. 75pc of pensioner own their property with no mortgage.

Middle aged people are starting to inherit wealth as boomer parents die and pay off mortgages and therefore have more spending power.

Central London is full of people at theatre and dining out. Getting a table at a decent Soho restaurant is a challenge at short notice.

If your parents didn't own a home and you are on benefits, life is very tough. If you are just on state pension, then life is tough.

It feels very unfair that some people will inherit and others will not but that is how it is.

The country is not on its knees or even close to it. There are plenty of people who want you to believe that though.

In particular Manchester's economy has done very well in recent years with one of the highest growth rates in the country particularly in industries with fairly good wages. Plenty of people there with decent incomes who can afford to go out for dinner in central Manchester.

If you are in the shit bit of life (which is having small children as that usually involves spending on childcare and a desire to have a bigger house which means more mortgage) then you are just in the rubbish stage. And that sort of always has been the case - it's a phase in your life with little spare cash. But it does get better. Childcare costs reduce. Eventually they go away entirely.

Did you have any life changing accidents? Disabled children? Long term chronic illnesses limiting earning potential?

I used to but he dropped it when youngest was 16 and gave the kids the money instead 🤨

It's always the way, IwishIcouldconfess.

I'm a pensioner in my seventies who well remembers the huge recession of the late 1980s-90s, during which businesses were going bust and people losing their houses left right and centre. I -we as a family - were hit badly, just about managed to survive.

Alongside there were others partying and spending freely. I remember one person saying to me the recession was all in the mind! This was not someone who couldn't afford shoe repairs and was hiding from the bailiffs.

That is life, there will always be people far more well off for whatever reason and who weather the storm better than average.

This will pass, it always does. Take heart from that, better times are ahead.

There's nothing new under the sun.

OH and I (early 30s no DC) prioritise going out and travelling - as my DM says we are always off gallivanting. We both have second jobs at the weekend. We could save a bit more and go out a bit less, but would have absolutely nothing to look forward to, and I think that’s how many people feel. We want kids but financially and practically the thought is terrifying so we’re enjoying this time in our lives whilst it lasts!

I went to Bluewater on the last Saturday before Christmas. I went for the cinema, not shopping, however, i wanted to grab a sandwich but hated the thought of queuing up for 10 minutes as I had in previous years - probably 10 years ago, I don't really do shopping at Christmas time. I needn't have worried, I didn't have to queue at all. So much so that I actually went to buy a couple of other things and again, not one person in front of me.
I don't know if people don't have money, or are choosing to spend it.

This made me laugh!

You may have seen me and my friends today. We went to a coffee shop where we each spent around £4 on one coffee. You may have seen us walking around the designer shops and all over Selfridges, looking at expensive clothes, shoes, handbags, candles, make up. We had a lovely time. We’re fucking loaded, right?

WRONG! We’re all skint! None of us bought a single thing apart from that one £4 coffee. We just enjoy walking around the shops.

If you look around more carefully, you’ll notice you don’t see as many people buying as much stuff as they used to. The shops are still busy with people like me but not as many people are actually buying things. In big cities, there are of course more people who earn lots of money or who have family wealth so there are still people who go on shopping sprees.

Here’s my (very rough) analysis:
Not struggling - may have been enjoying a jolly day out in Manchester:
17-24 year old still living at home on minimum wage/average earner full time.
25-67 Two incomes - high earners 40,000 plus
38-67- bought a house at the right time. Low housing costs. Two incomes.
65 plus - mortgage free - 2 works pensions plus state pension.
Benefit applicants on UC and pip - paying no rent or council tax
State pension plus carers/attendance - full rent paid and no council tax to pay

People who are really struggling: They definitely were not out in Manchester today!
25 - 38 - trying to get on the property ladder - low/middle income/ private renters
Single parents- 25-38 - one income with private renting or mortgage costs unless earning a wage over 40,000 - may struggle on 40,000 depending on house size/area and number of children.
25-38 Two average earners with kids - especially if paying high housing costs and nursery fees
67 plus - small work pension plus state pension still renting - no help towards rent/council tax due to works pension and still high housing costs
Any aged single person not living at home- minimum wage - renting or mortgage if younger (older single people may be ok financially if they bought a house at the right time)
Single benefits applicants living on uc

I was in Manchester for dinner and a concert this evening and can confirm that it was rammed and I agree that that’s the norm rather than the exception. I commented recently to friends that the COL crisis doesn’t seem visible on the surface in Manchester.

However, I agree with pps that lots of satellite towns that were previously thriving, or just existing comfortably are now not. I think the wealthy suburbs are still busy, but other places are seeing closures, feeling empty and run down.

I definitely agree that a huge number of people out and about are young and probably don’t have the financial responsibilities that are causing lots to struggle. But in Manchester, using OPs example, you do see all ages out imo.

It’s payday weekend
lots of place have January offers on
theres still people with disposable income
like myself people have birthdays/celebrations in January

Leeds was in a bad way through COVID. Took time to recover. It's blossoming again now with businesses opening up. But outside those areas. Homelessness has risen so much in the last 18 months. It's not addicts but people who've lost everything.

My friend works in a bakery that sees them coming in at the end of the day for wastage. She said you can tell the newbies because their clothes are still cleanish. They're polite and seem more alert. Across the road from the shop are buildings with deep doorways. Those become dormitory town at night. They run soup kitchens at the railway station hot food.

Property is considerably cheaper in the north west but most people get paid the same ergo bigger budget for going out. Plus restaurant/pub prices are significantly cheaper (We have a house in Bolton and a house in the south east. The difference is startling)

Also more & more younger people are not having dc which frees up disposable income.

Manchester is a bit of a bubble, for a while now it's has the fastest growing house prices. There are a lot of well paid jobs and if like me you bought a house before the boom, people have a lot of disposable income. I bought a house 10 years ago, on a tram line in south Manchester, I've only got 50k left on my mortgage so I'm out for dinner and/or drinks twice a week usually. A lot of my friends are the same. I think the situation is very different for people in their 20s as rents are crazy and nowhere cheap left to buy.

I get what you mean OP, and it’s ridiculous to think majority are having meals or coffee on credit or living at home with parents or they are "wealthy pensioners".
lots are indeed struggling and media makes it look like everyone is on the breadline. But in reality there are lots doing ok , and can afford weekly meals out, daily coffees etc.
there Is also a major shift in consumer habits , younger people are not out clubbing anymore and prefer to meet up for coffee/brunch/lunch instead.

January offers is a good point. With there being a weekend January day after payday, I bet the takeup of people was higher than in an average year. Last year for example January finished on a Friday, so the final weekend of the month was 24th and 25th. Probably nowhere near as packed.

We went out for drinks last night as DH's birthday in week. It was rammed to. Taxi driver said its because its the first pay day weekend. Has been quiet rest of Jan.