Aibu for being increasingly worried about the job market?

[gymboe]

another threat of redundancy here. Business not going well and to be honest we are full steam ahead with AI.

a quick search in my large town in south of England:

• 5 x nhs jobs (4 of which I am not qualified for and one is really terrible pay as just three days per week)
• school jobs: just three and very low pay
• our high street is mostly made of charity shops and vape stores. Retail doesn’t offer what I want.
• a big employer now hardly owns any office space. There are just a few jobs. I’m not qualified.

I do have a degree but found myself in a specialised account/client mgmt type role. Pays around £50k.

10 years ago there were loads of these type of jobs, decent salary even if you had to start low, good career progression, hundreds of them and tonnes of temp agencies. And the nhs had loads of admin jobs. Not to mention school jobs being plentiful.

where the hell have they all gone?

this is a huge issue. Massive. I’m really worried.

I think none of knows what's ahead. My DD is very artistic (hence my vested interest in looking up the state of the creative industries!) but I can't tell her not to pursue her passion because of the looming AI-pocalypse when her friends aiming to be lawyers or go into medicine, teaching or accountancy are also at risk. We just don't know what's a smart career choice these days. She might end up on the scrap heap (hope not) or figure out how to make a living. A non-negligible portion of her year group are also taking at least a year out because they just can't figure out what they want or what they 'should' be doing. I think that's interesting, and shows how stressed out the kids are. As for the trades, funnily enough she HAS been thinking about it and if she were to pick a trade, she's clear she'd train as an electrician. She likes cars too, so there might be something to do in the EV sector. She's keeping an open mind...

God no!

Driving round, fixing stinky pipes would be our eldest’s idea of hell!

There will always be problems to fix that need human creativity with the sciences that AI can’t learn. And whilst AI is a shiny new tool humans like humans.

And think about it if there is a surplus of trades their wages will drop in comparison.

Our eldest wants to go via physics into “energy” which will always be essential - humans can’t do anything without energy. Not even be a plumber.

And youngster wants to go into law which again is becoming interesting with new cases involving environment law and online craziness.

We have two fairly bright, hard working, polite, kind, fun teens. Who know they have to work up the ranks, be adaptable and not be entitled pricks. If there are no jobs for them then the world will be screwed. So not going to worry about it.

So no no trades for us.

(Failing their own dreams their dad is a computer guru he’ll train them up to run the computers AI works on but it won’t be necessary)

I also think the definition of 'trades' and what that involves will change with AI and evolving robotics.

Machine learning is great
AI is a moron

20 years ago no one could predict that there would be as many nail bars as hairdressers
Or the demand for tattoos
Or high street Botox and numerous other beauty treatments
Beard art!

Vaping, whilst you might disagree, is popular and is better than stinky tar cigarettes
there is an increase in functional drinks replacing alcohol but giving you a buzz

children’s activities are more varied and more people pay for them than when we grew up

theatres are full nowadays live entertainment is thriving because people want to go out be around others but not necessarily in the old drinking club pub culture

escape rooms, they are fairly new

life evolves, and there will be jobs for creatives because everything we wear, use, bring into our house, is all designed

a steady supply of food with fast changing climates, needs to be sorted out. Managing water will be essential - we all know rainfall patterns are changing

so many problems to fix and of course the continuation of increasing of human knowledge and evolution because that is fundamentally what being human is

if you want to sit at home saying “it’s all pointless” or escape into a virtual world then fine do that but it’s not by any means a dead cert.

board games, they have exploded - they need designing
how much tv is being made now

the world is changing not disappearing

it will be fine

I think what people, perhaps parents in particular, need to do more is not be so obsessed with trying to find a perfect path on behalf of their children where being paid the most is the only goal. Most people don’t reach their earning potential until mid-late 30s/40s - thinking you go to uni and voila one £100k job appears is insane

so many parents think they can ask in here for a certified path so their child will be top of the pile - it’s just not going to be like that

if you want a job that seems to be certain and you are happy to sell your soul find something that serves the mega rich but even then private yacht commissions are dropping

YABU. The statistics show that the employment rate is around 75%, the highest it has been in decades. In 1995, it was 69%.

It is no suprise that the job market looks at little scarce at the moment - it's December! Few employers are recruiting at this time of year - they will be waiting for January.

The only people who will be safe are those like me who work with our hands, we are decades off robots being anywhere near capable of even basic craft in an off the production line scenario.
If your job involves simply operating a computer 9-5, then it has been the stated intent of the IT industry to remove the operator from the equation since the 1960s, and finally it is really becoming a possibility.

Yep, I find it useful as an engineer, but here's an example - a 1953 Adler Special typewriter, still in occasional use in a solicitors office, broken tab rail, I needed to get the carriage off and remove the tab rail without messing up the alignment.

I didn't expect AI to be able to help, but it provided full, step by step instructions - I couldn't find a service manual anywhere on the web, what it presumably did was collated small bits of information from various sites and produced the instructions on how to service a machine built 73 years ago and largely forgotten!

One thing I think is being overlooked is the psychological impact of the technological progress that is happening so quickly that it's hard to keep up.

During the pandemic, both myself and my late DP fell into the category of "non-essential" which kind of stung. I'm expecting someone to "gently" remind me "it's not personal" and on one level I can accept that, however what I'm teying to get at is the sudden hollow feeling of realising that things you have invested yourself and your passion, not to mention time and money, into can be rendered completely unimportant by (sometimes apparently arbitrary and "market influenced" ) changes in the external world.

There is the attitude that one should just be able to be objective and detach emotionally and adapt, because that is "resilient", yet conversely we are encouraged to be passionate about what we do and invest our "whole selves" into our work.

It's no wonder some of those who drop out of the job market end up on the ever growing list of "mental health" sufferers. It's written in stone that our work and economic status and success is the primary measure of our worth, and also we benefit from the routine and purpose and social interaction of employment. From personal experience, the existential dread that comes from lack of money, isolation, and living in a world where changing that seems like a Sisyphean task can really monkey with a person's well-being. And once depression and anxiety truly kicks in, being "pro-active" becomes harder and harder.

The current zeitgeist seems to imply that any problem can be overcome with enough positive thought, but if AI turfs out your previously acceptable CV on a regular basis, and you can never get to demonstrate your sparkling personality, skills or knowledge in an interview, you do become reliant on networking etc. However, if you can't physically afford to go to lunch, or out for drinks that opportunity dries up too.

I know this all sounds very "poor me" but statistically I can't be the only person howling into a void that is at least partially created by waking up in a world I recognise less and less on what seems like a weekly basis.

On other threads that cast the out of work for whatever reason as drains on society, the attitude is get a job, any job, humble yourself, which is all very well except you can't just demand one from an employer. I have often wondered what would happen if I just went and squatted at any employers premises and refuse to leave until I was given a job. It would probably get me a night in the cells and psychiatric assessment for delusions of grandeur!!

Anyway, hope this wasn't too much of a de-rail, but along with the downsides of AI I do wonder where the human race is going in general, as everything that grounded us until recently seems to be being stripped away and redefined at a speed it is harder to keep up with than previously..

And drones are changing the face of warfare in Ukraine - there will be less soldiers and more technology in the future.

I don't think you are being ' poor me' at all. You have expressed much that I am feeling, and so well. Have an un- MNetty hug!

@Shallana Your are right that there is still - officially - relatively high employment. The main problem (beyond the flat economy) is labour market immobility/stagnation which means that:
(a) fewer people who currently don't have a job but would like one, can't find one
(b) people who might normally move jobs are - as another PP put it - "job hugging"
The net effect of all this is that some age groups are finding it very hard to find either the work they want or any work at all, particularly young people and 50+. I haven't seen a study yet about whether this is impacting women more than men but I would not be surprised if it is, for several reasons.
Some industries - and therefore some people working in those industries - are being impacted more than others.
"Wait until the January" would previously have been sensible advice and might be again if the economy picks up. But these current conditions are more than that.
I also think, like some PPs, that there is a lot of masking of unemployment and underemployment in the official figures. So, in a higher income household (and by that I mean above 50K total let's say), one partner may have fallen out of work (also as discussed on this thread) and the other partner keeping things going whilst their spouse does the 800 applications someone mentioned. But in this scenario the person out of work probably doesn't register for benefits, so they are not captured in the figures.

Thank you x and right back at you xxxx

I just don’t believe the stats re unemployment at all.

I think a previous poster was right.

my linked in is full of people like me “open to work”

in my friendship group there are nhs workers and teachers that don’t love their work but seem to be safe.

and others like me, keeping their head down, hoping not be be made redundant, putting up with increasingly shit conditions (no payrises, bonus, reduced rewards)

there’s nothing out there that suits me and hasn’t been for some time.

id really like a job that pays around 40-50k, I simply can’t afford to become a TA for example. And nor can I easily become a lawyer, GP, or builder. I can’t afford to retrain.

the way I can see it playing out is, I’ll get made redundant. I’ll then be forced to get a job quickly that will be about 20k less than I’m on now.

And that's where the country is getting it wrong, I'm an electrician, we have a huge shortfall in numbers and very few going through training - the gov't should be looking to pick up those being made redundant and offer free re-training.

Assuming you can get an apprenticeship placement the shortest official training programme to become an electrician is 2 weeks! so in theory I could take on an adult apprentice after they have done the 2 weeks of college, get them on site and wiring up new builds under supervision, and in theory within 12 months they could have their gold card and be away - adults are so much quicker to train than teenagers, on the basis they are more reliable in terms of turning up.

Or you could just take city and guilds 2882 (regs, 3 days) and 2391 (Inspection, 1 week course) get certified to do inspections and make a fortune churning out landlords safety certificates, a mate of mine was a school teacher and did that and just does that, safety inspections, makes north of 100K, easy money.

Have you been actively looking for a job or reading about redundancies? Once you start digging you will see it’s not just a December thing unfortunately.

@DeftWasp had no idea it was so quick to train as an electrician! That's fascinating. But how easy is it to get one of those apprenticeships? If it's so easy to make 100k how come more people aren't doing it?

not sure some of the jobs that have been discussed as future proof really are to be honest. my council has robot grass cutters in parks and on grass verges/roundabouts and there are automatic floor cleaners in airports all over. My daughter stayed in a fully automated hotel in Japan, it doesn’t need much imagination to see how a care home or hospital could be similarly automated with minimum human support.

That's the catch 22, if you are a teenager difficult, if you are an adult, very difficult. As there are less of us out there who are fully qualified, there are less people to take on apprentices, and gov't has made it more and more difficult to do so as most of us are self employed or in small firms, most don't want to bother.

The surveying option for landlords certificates works if you are in a big city with high demand for inspections, as my friend is, he also had the benefit of a degree in physics (having previously been a science teacher) whilst that counts for nothing, it does mean you have an appreciation of the principles and mathematics of the job.

I was a convert myself, started as a Graphic Designer but saw my industry being decimated by computerisation in the early 2000's and jumped ship, luckily I found someone willing to take me on.

I know a lady who went from law a few years ago to being a high line engineer for national grid, she loves it, but she loves climbing / abseiling etc, that's what got her the job and training, hanging around up pylons isn't everyones cup of tea.

Wanna be negative with a chip on your shoulder and no future prospects because you don’t actually try and do sweet naff all - act like you.

Ive managed to be employed with no breaks for over a decade because I can see when I need to change gears and do something a bit different to stay employed.

For what it’s worth I have done what I recommend twice in the last 6 years. I’m not just talking out of my backside.

Hope that chip in your shoulder isn’t too heavy,

Zack Polanski more or less proved this right on question time last week by saying he would not want to do a carers job. When you have people like him down playing a carers job, why would people want to do it.

We already have robots in Japanese care homes delivering the tea and biscuits (the Japanese have a desperate shortage of young people and are well advanced with this because of it) robots doing the cleaning and lonely people with AI friends and pets.

It isn't difficult to imagine a care home with an absolute minimum of human labour within a decade.

Care homes already have an absolute minimum human staffing level in many cases. Building robots who could do personal and nursing care tasks would be incredibly expensive.

Anything that can be done from home office will be replaced by inexpensive algorithms but robots with the range of motion and adaptability to provide physical personal care to a range of unpredictable, unwell living humans - let alone actual nursing care - will be vastly too expensive for a long time.

Because firms put profit before people.
It's what a capitalist society is all about.