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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.

609 replies

RetiredMan · 20/09/2025 23:47

I just watched the documentary linked below, about falling birth-rates, released on Youtube yesterday, by the guy who did the research.

(The fact in the subject is from an interview, the documentary itself only give the statistic for Japan, where the equivalent age is 26.)

Some factoids for those who won't watch the video (some are from the documentary, some are from two interviews with the maker that I've also watched.)

Birth-rates are below the level needed to keep population stable everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa. (It looks like only a matter of time until it's true there as well.)

That the invention of the pill is causing this is disproved by the fact that rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there. They fell at the same time as birth-rates in multiple other countries, so it's not that Japan has a different cause.

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families. (If I remember rightly, Japan went from 1 in 30 women childless to 1 in 5, in the space of three years. It's now 1 in 3.)

I think I caught a statistic somewhere that 40% of US women are now destined to be childless. (Presumably that is among those becoming adult now. But I might be wrong about this statistic, may have misheard/misunderstood.)

One reason childlessness is a problem is that 4 out of 5 women who never have children are biologically fertile and would have liked to have had children, but just never made it happen. Obviously there will also be economic issues, if each 20-year-old entering the job market has to generate enough economic output to support multiple 70-year-olds.

Even though birth-rates are falling. generations already born before births peaked will caused older age brackets to have increasing numbers of people, so for a few decades, overall population will still increase despite births decreasing.

The birth-rate of a population can be 90% predicted by the average age at which a women has her first child. The exact figure has not yet been researched, but it appears to be the case that population will inevitably decline if women who want children do not have their first child by their mid-twenties.

Immigration will not be able to solve the economic problems caused by falling population. There will be nowhere with a people surplus for them to come from. (There was a jokey interview claim that India already has ghost villages, they need immigrants!)

The cause of the decline seems to be a failure of couples to get together in time to have children. The data shows a big drop in birth-rates every time there is a major economic crisis. In response to the crisis, people postpone having children, but once society has shifted to aiming to have children at an older age, it never shifts back to having them at the original age.

A metaphor that explains why couple-formation is down. Imagine you live in a village with a dance-hall that is open for three hours on a Saturday evening. Every young person is there for the whole three hours, and gets to see every other person they could potentially marry had have children with. Now imagine the opening hours are changed to six hours, but most people still only have the energy to go for three hours. Some people leave before the person they should have met and married arrives. Some people are half-way through getting to know one person when another person enters and catches there eye, one courtship is interrupted by a new possibility. Perhaps this disruption kills one potential relationship. If the time-period during which most men and women think they need to mate has changed from maybe as little as five years to as long as 20 years, the likelihood that any potential pair will be on the same page at the same time goes down.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=rzbxoEDDxcy3hn6d

OP posts:
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Gnarab24 · 21/09/2025 10:39

Again, purely anecdotally, but of the female friends I have only one had a child under 28, everyone of us has children now that we’re in our late 40’s-50’s

MyFortieth · 21/09/2025 10:39

Friendlygingercat · 21/09/2025 00:25

I can remember when women who decided to be child free were called insulting names like "old maid" or "spinster". You never hear these terms now and they have become as unacceptable as the "N" word. Now that the choice to be childfree carries minimal stigma many women are looking at the shitshow which is childbirth and parenting and rejecting it. I decided age 11 that I wanted no children and have never wavered from that sensible decision. I did not see how children were going to serve my interests in any meaningful way.

This is a real double edged sword post. On the one hand from an individual financial point of view it is sensible, but from a societal point of view it is catastrophic; As you age you will be depending on others to have had children to provide essential services to you.

bombastix · 21/09/2025 10:40

It’s just the same old push for barefoot and pregnant, and because women have a degree of choice.

Social media literally has two forms of meme on this, the trad wife who has elaborate domestic planning to the point of a mental breakdown and then the other is a woman who starts to have visions of domestic drudgery as the man places the engagement ring on her finger and eventually runs away after feeling physically sick.

I have children but I have friends who don’t. Their lives are impossibly easy compared to mine in financial terms, and probably emotionally too. Social media makes that very clear to young women.

CatHairEveryWhereNow · 21/09/2025 10:44

I saw that but then went and looked at the ONS figures - % of women who had no kids has gone up a few % points big change was the huge rise in just two kids - 3 used to be just as usual - and a rise in onlys though still below 2 kids.

Not sure why this seemed to be missed in the documneatry - perhaps it didn't fit the narrative being pushed.

Also age of parenthood has been rising - first time age of mothers in UK is I think 29 - some of that is the steep decline in teernage pg - which most think is a good thing - but also high housing costs and insecure job markets. Some of demographers think what will happen is women will have one or two kids ar older ages but if two or more closer together.

https://www.ft.com/content/315f7420-104a-40f5-ad2e-12520cb095ad
Chile counrty with fasted declining fertlity now.

Chile’s plummeting births take fertility rate below Japan’s

Social mobility and high living costs contribute to 42 per cent drop in rate over past decade

https://www.ft.com/content/315f7420-104a-40f5-ad2e-12520cb095ad

TheAmusedQuail · 21/09/2025 10:45

BiologicalRobot · 21/09/2025 08:11

Oh dude...

How vomit inducing is that post, and your attitude is exactly the reason so many women are saying no. Men should be stepping up because it's the right thing to do. Why aren't they? Because they are porn addled selfish fuckers who are a waste of space usually.

Exactly. It's pandering to a cock. In order to have a child with the cock who will continue to be obsessed with its cock and not want to do the laundry or pick up their child if its crying.

Not appealing. At. All.

OneAmberFinch · 21/09/2025 10:50

I watched this documentary some years ago and it was very influential in getting me to bring forward my baby timeline. Now TTC#2 at the time I would originally have been TTC#1 on my original timeline :)

DC1 is the light of my life and was the best thing that I ever decided to do. Despite all the annoyances of parenthood (I've spent this morning with a crying toddler who woke up at 5am and has only just now gone for a nap) I would do it again in a heartbeat and wish I had started at 28 instead of 32.

My explanation for waiting: I honestly just didn't know anyone with babies and the people around me were either childfree or planning kids at 35+. I was afraid of losing all my friends. It felt like a huge leap in a way it wouldn't have if my friends were having kids at the same time.

padso · 21/09/2025 10:55

Migration will only rise in the future as climate change makes more areas of the world less habitable

That's why I see increased international conflict. Countries that are younger aren't going to understandable settle for fewer resources and the west will have less power so won't be able to hoard so much

Rewis · 21/09/2025 10:57

There are no benefits for women for having children. The society has to change first for women to have kids. This includes that men have to change.

DarkPassenger1 · 21/09/2025 11:00

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families.

I just want to point out, that it is not necessary to have children to be a family.

A couple is a family. A group of three best friends that live together is a family. A single person with their dog is a family. Family is what you make of it. The notion that 'family' automatically requires having kids is pretty offensive in this day and age, I say that as a parent.

Ultimately we're in a world where you need to work hard and study throughout your twenties in order to have a hope of earning the kind of income that will support having children, so of course people are having kids older and some miss the opportunity altogether, as well as plenty of people now feeling able to be open about not wanting kids, and having access to medication/procedures to ensure that. It's much easier for a childfree person to find another childfree person online, so fewer 'I'd prefer not to have kids but I guess as the partner I've found really wants them I'll have one'.

I think there's a true social issue also of men especially waiting until they're much older before being ready for kids, inevitably they will then want to find a younger woman who has childbearing years ahead of her. Meaning some older women approaching their late thirties/forties who'd love to have had kids aren't chosen, so to speak. Out of the women I know who don't have kids in their forties, the majority of them wanted them, but just didn't find a man happy to have them with her in time. It's Peter Pan syndrome in a way. In years gone by it was normal to couple up in your late teens and early twenties, marry (inconceivable to plan kids without marriage!), and have your first child by mid-twenties. Modern men are well aware that their bio window for having kids is much longer than for women and can afford to enjoy being footloose and fancy free for a long time before finally having children.

There's much more awareness now for women of the domestic load, of weaponised incompetence, of not relying on a man. Many won't settle just to get a baby. They know that life solo can be fulfilling and a man has to bring more to the table than just sperm in order for it to be worth giving up what she already has.

And many of us have heard from our mothers 'don't do it. Don't have kids. It's not worth it'. And we're a generation that can actually choose.

2boyzNosleep · 21/09/2025 11:00

I'm pretty sure that science considers this a natural regulation of population growth when it happens to any other species- not sure why its such a shock just because its humans.

In nature, its put down to increased competition for resources (mostly food but also mates/shelter) resulting in fights/death, and the parents often not being able to care for their young due to these threats.

Essentially, this is happening with the human race but due to economical causes, such as income, housing, both parents needing to be in employment, childcare, etc.

As well as war/famines/diseases etc.

Wincher · 21/09/2025 11:02

Surely another factor is climate change? There is a lot of evidence that life on earth will become distinctly unpleasant, with large parts of the globe all but uninhabitable, within the next century. Why would we want to bring children into a world in which they will face that kind of suffering?

GlomOfNit · 21/09/2025 11:03

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:31

How do women get men to commit? Well, this may be controversial, but I think offering them copious amounts of brain-melting sex might do the the trick...

(Obviously women would only do that if they thought what they were getting in return was worth it. It's their call.)

Hello, RetiredMan! <waves> Grin I'm SO glad to see you've got a useful hobby to keep you active in your retirement - coming onto what is overwhelmingly a woman's forum to scold us about not having enough children (with a side order of not offering brain-melting sex?).

Do you have any particular agenda you would like to share with us?

powershowerforanhour · 21/09/2025 11:03

"Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families."

Childless women are not a problem though. The female family members and friends I know who don't have children do an absolute ton of paid and unpaid work. Yes they go on hiking holidays and out for expensive cocktails but they also work hard in their jobs and run community projects, volunteer with homeless charities, visit all the aged rellies when we parents don't have time to and are the glue that holds society together and the engine that drives it, as far as I can see. Without childless women society would be shit.

KimberleyClark · 21/09/2025 11:09

A couple is a family. A group of three best friends that live together is a family. A single person with their dog is a family. Family is what you make of it. The notion that 'family' automatically requires having kids is pretty offensive in this day and age, I say that as a parent.

Thank you for this. As someone who couldn’t have children I hate it when the term family is used for children, as in starting a family, being asked if you have a family etc. I have family (DH, DB, SIL and DN), I just don’t have children.

CrispieCake · 21/09/2025 11:10

MyFortieth · 21/09/2025 10:39

This is a real double edged sword post. On the one hand from an individual financial point of view it is sensible, but from a societal point of view it is catastrophic; As you age you will be depending on others to have had children to provide essential services to you.

If society wants women to have children, then society needs to give women a much, much better deal than it currently does.

If you see how much stick pregnant women get for expecting a seat on the train or bus ("pregnancy is not an illness, bla, bla...!"), then it's obvious how far we have to go.

RingoJuice · 21/09/2025 11:14

Kpo58 · 20/09/2025 23:51

It's not surprising that Japan is having a population crisis.

Women don't want to have children because

  • High living costs & tiny flats
  • Culture of stupidly long work hours
  • Still a very patriarchal society where women are seen as second class citizens.

IME they wanted to get married and have children but there were few avenues to meet eligible men. They used to do arranged marriages but obviously that is very, very suboptimal.

Grammarnut · 21/09/2025 11:15

Finteq · 21/09/2025 00:00

I think YABU

and the stat about Japan women being childless doesn't make sense.

How can it increase from 1 in 30 to 1 in 5 in just 3 years?

That doesn't make sense.

The world is already overpopulated and increasing all the time. I don't think anyone has to worry about the population level being too low.

I think we do, since birth rates everywhere are not at replacement level. Those who think humans are an infestation might be pleased at that, the rest of us see the economic and social repercussions.
Mind, the birth rate will probably go up again before total crisis is reached. It would be helped by building work, qualifications etc round women's biology rather than mens. Also, we might have to understand that obligations to others are not just for when you fancy keeping them, but have an input into society and family as well.

RingoJuice · 21/09/2025 11:16

Wincher · 21/09/2025 11:02

Surely another factor is climate change? There is a lot of evidence that life on earth will become distinctly unpleasant, with large parts of the globe all but uninhabitable, within the next century. Why would we want to bring children into a world in which they will face that kind of suffering?

Literally the best time to have ever had children.

You can expect your children to make it to adulthood—just 100 years or so ago, you had to expect that one of your kids would not make it …

EasternStandard · 21/09/2025 11:17

Grammarnut · 21/09/2025 11:15

I think we do, since birth rates everywhere are not at replacement level. Those who think humans are an infestation might be pleased at that, the rest of us see the economic and social repercussions.
Mind, the birth rate will probably go up again before total crisis is reached. It would be helped by building work, qualifications etc round women's biology rather than mens. Also, we might have to understand that obligations to others are not just for when you fancy keeping them, but have an input into society and family as well.

I find ‘infestation’ too strong and not useful but I also think increasing as we have been brings its own problems.

If I think about humans in the next few decades and beyond then it’s better we reduce a bit in billions naturally. I think we have more of a chance of getting through with lower volatility.

Horsie · 21/09/2025 11:18

@MyFortieth "As you age you will be depending on others to have had children to provide essential services to you."

This is true, but what's the solution? To have children you don't want?

Following your logic, people who don't have children should not ever buy or use any service provided by humans, like going to the doctor, because everyone is someone's child!

Anyway, the people who don't have children help balance out the parents who stay at home, in terms of taxes generated. They also provide a lot of family support, maybe to nieces and nephews or to ailing elderly parents, if the siblings are busy raising their children. I don't have kids, and the majority of caring during our late parents' long illnesses fell to me, which made sense as my sibling has three children. People without children are also freer to volunteer.

Everyone has their role to play in society, and people who don't have children have the time to contribute in other ways. So I don't think you should be worried about the childless accessing essential services provided by other people's grown-up children. My sister accessed essential services provided by me during our parents' illnesses, lol!

RingoJuice · 21/09/2025 11:18

OutsideLookingOut · 21/09/2025 10:11

Except marriage is advantageous to men in terms of lifespan, health, employment etc etc etc.

I think this must be a selection thing, in that you wouldn’t marry a man unhealthy or with poor employment prospects. I mean, why would you?

Horsie · 21/09/2025 11:19

CrispieCake · 21/09/2025 11:10

If society wants women to have children, then society needs to give women a much, much better deal than it currently does.

If you see how much stick pregnant women get for expecting a seat on the train or bus ("pregnancy is not an illness, bla, bla...!"), then it's obvious how far we have to go.

This, one THOUSAND percent.

ChihuahuaKeeper · 21/09/2025 11:19

Notmyreality · 21/09/2025 09:55

She isn’t gloating. And you obviously envy her and wish you’d made the same choice. And anyone can post of MN. The clue is not in the name. It’s just a name.

I am absolutely not envious. Having children is the best thing I've done. I'm sorry that I thought she was gloating. In her further posts, I see that she's angry with her husband's ex who doesn't appear to consider her children before herself. I still think mumsnet was originally for parents. If it's just a name, then why do so many people post asking about names on here?

Chaosclassic · 21/09/2025 11:24

latetothefisting · 21/09/2025 10:14

By age 28, if I looked at the group of, say, 30 women my age I knew best- so school friends, uni friends, work colleagues etc, only 1 had a child. 8 years later there are maybe 3 who haven't/aren't currently pregnant with their first.

so in a very rough cohort only 3-5% had children before age 30, but by age 36 something like 85-90% had.

Obviously anecdata etc and I imagine varies in different social groups ( I know of a few people from school who had kids much younger) but given the average age for a woman having her FIRST child is now 31 in the uk your 50% after 28 stat doesn't seem accurate.

This. I don’t think this is accurate tbh.

Saying that I think you could tweak it and then it may be more accurate. In that if you are not in a long term relationship with an investment of some kind (living, together, joint house, pet, marriage); then it becomes somewhere closer to 50:50.

I have a close friend who struggles to find anyone to have children with. I also know a couple who couldn’t find the right partner. Finally have late 30s but it’s too late. It is very difficult to find a partner once working fulltime.

Horsie · 21/09/2025 11:29

@bombastix "I have children but I have friends who don’t. Their lives are impossibly easy compared to mine in financial terms, and probably emotionally too."

Are you pretty young, as in early thirties? If so, an easy life might be due to that age. I'm in my early fifties, have no children and am completely exhausted and depleted by life. I had a difficult marriage, which culminated in him leaving me suddenly, and I was the sole caregiver for my parents during two very long illnesses. Divorce has brought a lot of financial stress too. My experience of not having children is that other stresses just come along to fill the space.