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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.

609 replies

RetiredMan · 20/09/2025 23:47

I just watched the documentary linked below, about falling birth-rates, released on Youtube yesterday, by the guy who did the research.

(The fact in the subject is from an interview, the documentary itself only give the statistic for Japan, where the equivalent age is 26.)

Some factoids for those who won't watch the video (some are from the documentary, some are from two interviews with the maker that I've also watched.)

Birth-rates are below the level needed to keep population stable everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa. (It looks like only a matter of time until it's true there as well.)

That the invention of the pill is causing this is disproved by the fact that rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there. They fell at the same time as birth-rates in multiple other countries, so it's not that Japan has a different cause.

Women who do become mothers are not having fewer children than before, the issue is that suddenly a large chunk of women are having no children at all. In other words, the problem is not smaller families, the problem is fewer families. (If I remember rightly, Japan went from 1 in 30 women childless to 1 in 5, in the space of three years. It's now 1 in 3.)

I think I caught a statistic somewhere that 40% of US women are now destined to be childless. (Presumably that is among those becoming adult now. But I might be wrong about this statistic, may have misheard/misunderstood.)

One reason childlessness is a problem is that 4 out of 5 women who never have children are biologically fertile and would have liked to have had children, but just never made it happen. Obviously there will also be economic issues, if each 20-year-old entering the job market has to generate enough economic output to support multiple 70-year-olds.

Even though birth-rates are falling. generations already born before births peaked will caused older age brackets to have increasing numbers of people, so for a few decades, overall population will still increase despite births decreasing.

The birth-rate of a population can be 90% predicted by the average age at which a women has her first child. The exact figure has not yet been researched, but it appears to be the case that population will inevitably decline if women who want children do not have their first child by their mid-twenties.

Immigration will not be able to solve the economic problems caused by falling population. There will be nowhere with a people surplus for them to come from. (There was a jokey interview claim that India already has ghost villages, they need immigrants!)

The cause of the decline seems to be a failure of couples to get together in time to have children. The data shows a big drop in birth-rates every time there is a major economic crisis. In response to the crisis, people postpone having children, but once society has shifted to aiming to have children at an older age, it never shifts back to having them at the original age.

A metaphor that explains why couple-formation is down. Imagine you live in a village with a dance-hall that is open for three hours on a Saturday evening. Every young person is there for the whole three hours, and gets to see every other person they could potentially marry had have children with. Now imagine the opening hours are changed to six hours, but most people still only have the energy to go for three hours. Some people leave before the person they should have met and married arrives. Some people are half-way through getting to know one person when another person enters and catches there eye, one courtship is interrupted by a new possibility. Perhaps this disruption kills one potential relationship. If the time-period during which most men and women think they need to mate has changed from maybe as little as five years to as long as 20 years, the likelihood that any potential pair will be on the same page at the same time goes down.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/m2GeVG0XYTc?si=rzbxoEDDxcy3hn6d

OP posts:
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AhBiscuits · 21/09/2025 08:26

I've got two friends who are 40 and want children but haven't had them.
One of them was married to a man who decided he didn't want them. They divorced and she's with someone else, but he is 25 and not ready for them. It's beginning to look like she will miss her chance.
The orher, her husband is not really bothered and has said they can have one if she really wants too. She doesn't want to have one when he is so luke warm about the idea. She doesn't want to be left raising a child alone.

I think women don't feel like they have to have children anymore, so if the circumstances are less than ideal they just won't bother.

anotherside · 21/09/2025 08:27

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 08:18

It would seem that there are only two options

  • both parents work and share the workload
  • one works and one stays home to manage the home and children

option 2 doesn’t seem viable financially anymore but it appears only women have understood this?

Because for women this setup, shitty though it is, is still seen by many as “an opportunity” - because historically women were largely shunned from the workforce, or at least restricted to very specific female roles, for centuries.

However for men the double task requirement is a new thing. They still have the cultural expectation that having a family means going out for a hard days work and then returning at 5:30 to a clean house, managed kids, and dinner on the table. When the reality for most in 2025 is that their partner will be walking through the front door at the same time as them, with no food prepared, kids on screens, and a messy house. And then, for 20-30% at least, STILL spending the evening stressing about bills.

So yes, men need to step up to do their share, but if we’re being honest the above set up is unsustainable.

Okrr · 21/09/2025 08:29

The world population since 1972 has doubled. We need less people not more for the planets sake. But who will take care of the elderly? Maybe robots. Who will pay for the elderly to live? We will figure it out because we will have to, but the population shrinking is a good thing.

padso · 21/09/2025 08:30

Who will pay for the elderly to live? We will figure it out because we will have to,

We are already feeling the economic impact of this though & the government can't figure it out.

frozendaisy · 21/09/2025 08:30

anotherside · 21/09/2025 07:57

Another more minor factor is men. Men also face the same standards of living issues. And on top of that they see in the media multiple famous men becoming fathers (albeit usually not for the first time) right into their 60s. Why struggle financially being a dad in your 20s when you can do same in your 40s-50s (and in the meantime have fun with OLD)

Except you increase issues with sperm quality in your 40s and 50s and if a not perfect strapping baby pops out they blame the uterus and fuck off to start the cycle again

fine if you are a rich old pop star with a house and staff big enough to not be bothered by such minor inconveniences

more should be advertised about male fertility, quality of genetic material

and also perhaps your inability to form a lasting relationship earlier might indicate ND genetics

and again it comes back to men being able to say “nah this isn’t the baby I wanted” off I fuck

bumbaloo · 21/09/2025 08:30

Finteq · 21/09/2025 00:00

I think YABU

and the stat about Japan women being childless doesn't make sense.

How can it increase from 1 in 30 to 1 in 5 in just 3 years?

That doesn't make sense.

The world is already overpopulated and increasing all the time. I don't think anyone has to worry about the population level being too low.

I think you have misunderstood what is happening globally. Birth rates have fallen drastically almost everywhere like the OP says.

it sounds all great from a simplistic environmental point of view but it’s a disaster. The population will become incredibly unbalanced. Many many old people. Not many young people.

To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.
To tell you that if a UK woman has not had her first child by 28, there is a 50% probability she will never have children.
Okrr · 21/09/2025 08:31

RetiredMan · 21/09/2025 00:31

How do women get men to commit? Well, this may be controversial, but I think offering them copious amounts of brain-melting sex might do the the trick...

(Obviously women would only do that if they thought what they were getting in return was worth it. It's their call.)

It’s the opposite. Cow and milk.

The men that want to commit to a particular person will do anything to keep her. Family and traditional values are not the worst thing we can keep alive. However we cannot go back now on women’s rights and do it will need to be a mixture because society has evolved.

snowmichael · 21/09/2025 08:31

> rates fell suddenly in Japan 20 years before the pill became legal there.
The pill was widely available in Japan, even when not licensed, along with other more traditional contraceptives, for almost all of that 20 years

BlueandPinkSwan · 21/09/2025 08:32

OlympicProcrastinator · 21/09/2025 07:44

You are reading the rambling of a porn addicted male who spends his life listening to single men spouting nasty shit about women on podcasts. He’s now come on a primarily female site to dress his misogyny as ‘discussion’ to tell us everything is our fault.

This !00%,
Must admit I thought it is bridge territory to stir the vipers up😆

padso · 21/09/2025 08:32

So yes, men need to step up to do their share, but if we’re being honest the above set up is unsustainable.

I think that's why the birth rates are as they are. I have younger siblings, relatives & colleagues who are just not prepared to have dc. They like their jobs & are good at their jobs, they like financial freedom etc. children threaten all that.

padso · 21/09/2025 08:33

it sounds all great from a simplistic environmental point of view but it’s a disaster. The population will become incredibly unbalanced. Many many old people. Not many young people.

Huge ramifications economically, culturally & socially of a largely older population.

NoSoapJustUseShowerGel · 21/09/2025 08:34

Well the planet can’t sustain continuous population growth indefinitely. I do understand the economic issues but there does have to be a limit, I don’t necessarily see global population decline as a bad thing.

frozendaisy · 21/09/2025 08:36

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 08:00

I asked earlier and nobody responded. What do you think the impact of a male birth control pill would be on this problem?

Nothing

no women in their right mind would trust them

and very very few men would take it - ego - can’t mess with the might meat and two veg - makes them less of a man - or some other such bollocks

birth control is a woman’s problem they have no intention on changing that position

some might lie and say they are on it not to pull out
like they say now “I’ll pull out”

if anything the male contraceptive pill will result in more babies - if women are daft enough to believe them

ReceiveIt · 21/09/2025 08:36

Then let's move to a matriarchal society. Whole communities of women living together and supporting one another with raising children. Men would live outside the community and only brought in for manual labour when necessary.

Badgerandfox227 · 21/09/2025 08:37

It’s cost of living. Having children has a hugely negative impact on finances, on top of that it’s harder and harder for young couples to get on the housing ladder and be in a suitable financial position to have kids - virtually impossible in your 20’s.

padso · 21/09/2025 08:39

Well the planet can’t sustain continuous population growth indefinitely

Who has claimed otherwise?

I do understand the economic issues but there does have to be a limit, I don’t necessarily see global population decline as a bad thing.

A shrinking population that is largely older is a bad thing, more fighting over resources and more international conflict. I would have loved to experience gc but will not be encouraging it, their lives will be awful.

roshi42 · 21/09/2025 08:39

Feelthabreeze · 21/09/2025 06:33

Many women wouldn’t. Aside from the impact on their bodies there are other considerations that unfortunately many parents don’t think about.

I have high earning friends that could financially afford a lot more but chose to stop at a certain number so they could give quality time to each child.

In a lot of 9+ children families you see older siblings basically having to be mini parents when they don’t want to be.

And the real parents have lost sight of what’s actually going on with their children beyond their basic needs - education, food, clothing etc.

I am not saying very large families can’t be done well but I haven’t seen it.

That’s true, I’m probably being slightly glib. I’m a very happy single mother to one. I absolutely can’t afford a nice life for her if I try and have more so I’ve stopped. If I was wealthy I would almost certainly make a different decision though. Just pointing out that finances are a major factor in many people’s decisions to have fewer (or any) children.

(By ‘wealthy’ I do mean well off enough to afford staff/help/childcare!! I wouldn’t want to give up work/my career. But would have more children if I could manage without having to.)

TizerorFizz · 21/09/2025 08:39

@anotherside Giving little back! Capitalism has given everything! We live a very different life from our parents. Utterly different from my grandparents! Work conditions and benefits from work are greatly enhanced for the majority. Our taxes pay for the nhs and those levied from business. Of course capitalism has improved lives - or what system? We all work for the state? We mostly have cars and holidays. Contrast that with 100 years ago.

The costs of being a parent are high. Women still do too much in many households but expectations of our needs and wants are high too and people want a certain standard of living. 60 years ago it was different. Now women want to work, provide for their families and keep their brains working. There’s not much well priced help and it limits family size. As does buying a house and living costs in general. Many families need grandparents to help so no rest for those women.

frozendaisy · 21/09/2025 08:40

anotherside · 21/09/2025 08:02

I reckon within a few years the problem of low birth rates will be solved with artificial births anyway which will solve all economic/age imbalance issues.

The trade off however being that it will begin the slide into a dystopian hellhole where the creation of humans is outsourced by governments to big tech in order to serve economic demand… our genetic makeup will be molded to serve the job market, and then the stage after that will likely be experimentation with direct insertion of nano technology so that humans can be controlled at will throughout their lives. Yay!

no chance

science is no where near being able to create the perfect conditions of a uterus to grow a baby

and why would you? It’s cheaper to just take away birth control choices from women and give men more rights over access to fanny you know THEIR meaning men’s sexual needs, neigh expected requirements

or perhaps all the men go gay as they all seem into anal fucking right now - that could solve a few problems

OldOrMaybeNotThatOld · 21/09/2025 08:41

frozendaisy · 21/09/2025 08:36

Nothing

no women in their right mind would trust them

and very very few men would take it - ego - can’t mess with the might meat and two veg - makes them less of a man - or some other such bollocks

birth control is a woman’s problem they have no intention on changing that position

some might lie and say they are on it not to pull out
like they say now “I’ll pull out”

if anything the male contraceptive pill will result in more babies - if women are daft enough to believe them

Very possible and it’s very interesting.

I think there are many men who would take it but I think the wrong men wouldn’t take it and it would lead to more of what we have… fatherless children and single mother households.

sashh · 21/09/2025 08:41

We live in a society that doesn't make having children easy. To buy a house and have children you need two incomes. And not everybody wants to have children in the first place.

If this is a problem then as a society we need to make it easier. Maternity leave at full pay would be a start. Some sort of 'leave of absence' for either parent for about 5 years with your job held open for you to return.

Free or affordable good wrap around child care of various forms, so not just nursery and after school clubs but other options.

If a relationship ends then there should be a sort of pension paid to the parent who does the childcare / dentist and Dr appointments etc should receive it and 90% of the time that is mum. The amount paid should be paid by the other parent, not every week / month but it should be added like a student loan is but with no cut off date.

Obviously get rid of the two child cap on benefits.

ForAzureSeal · 21/09/2025 08:43

FourIsNewSix · 21/09/2025 00:08

I don't see declining population size as bad thing. The humankind was never this numerous and there is only one planet.
And through the history, there have always been childless women, those unmarried aunties from literature were real.

The main issue is that economist and politics created an impossible expectation of infinite growth.

The main issue is that economist and politics created an impossible expectation of infinite growth.

Absolutely agree 💯

padso · 21/09/2025 08:43

We already have more over 65 yr olds then under 15s, it why governments have relied on immigration so much.

padso · 21/09/2025 08:43

The main issue is that economist and politics created an impossible expectation of infinite growth.

What's the alternative though?

Okrr · 21/09/2025 08:44

ReceiveIt · 21/09/2025 08:36

Then let's move to a matriarchal society. Whole communities of women living together and supporting one another with raising children. Men would live outside the community and only brought in for manual labour when necessary.

What about your sons? That is reverse handmaidens.

There are lots of systems we could try but ours isn’t the worst there could be for either gender.

I have sons and would be heartbroken for them in this dystopian system.

Plus if you hadn’t noticed, many women like having a bf/husband for obvious and non/ obvious reasons.

If you want a community like that start one but it isn’t for everyone.