Uk is in big trouble - what do you think will happen?

[hippysun]

Thames water on brink of collapse. All those CEOs getting fat bonuses. Water shortages and rising bills.

the cost of living is off the chart. Every bill has gone up. Pop in to Tesco for toothpaste, butter and chicken and it costs an insane amount for just a few items.

the government are crap and taxing the hell out of us.

my salary is stuck. I feel constantly poor now. 10 years ago when I earned significantly less, I felt ok money wise. Chatted today to a colleague about science graduate son who is stuck doing a minimum wage job as there are no jobs here. I’ve noticed this myself in my town. The council have a few, other companies outsourced to India years ago, the pharma company moved out years ago and the land will soon be a new housing estate.

the nhs is a total mess.

housing costs make me want to weep! No chance of moving. Feel bad for my kids. They just keep building expensive houses here all packed into poorly designed estates. Tiny gardens. But no infrastructure. The promised schools get cancelled and drs surgeries and hospitals are rammed with patients. My mortgage of course is up.

in my industry… everyone is obsessed with AI and I’m sad to say it has taken some jobs already. There is a huge push towards AI.

there seems to be underlying tension here re migrants. People getting increasingly annoyed.

this country feels like a right mess. Making rich people richer and poor people even poorer. The middle earners are getting squeezed. I hate it.

i don’t remember it being this bad ever before.

why is it so terrible? And what do you think will happen?

I’m 61.

I never blame the younger generation for anything. They are what they are, just like any generation. I really admire Gen Z’s refusal to comply with traditional working practices.

I already said.

Probably. People prefer to vote in higher spend and borrowing, which can’t keep going up.

End game will be when we ask the imf for emergency loans. They will impose the hard decisions that our politicians are too weak and incompetent of making.

Yep the 90’s were bad.

I got made redundant twice. And interest rates. And negative equity.

@strawberrybubblegum I'm asking what you would reduce on the NHS?

eg what services would you make unavailable

People prefer to vote in higher spend and borrowing, which can’t keep going up.

Yep, that's why people like Reform

I think there’s another factor driving that. Labour sold in higher spend without honesty on higher taxes and borrowing.

People would not turn to Reform if they told the truth though... people want to believe the lies.

Reform’s budget gap is projected to be £100 billion. They’d be the ultimate spending government.

Similar to the last GE and Labour there

Starmer tried that last July August, he was then condemned for "Talking the Country Down"

Ironic really, as the 'right are constantly telling us how bad everything is and we are on the brink of calling in the IMF, though what they think Ethan Hunt would do is anyone's guess.

Some also have short memories, growth under Sunak was often 0 or 0.1%, we have had 2 quarters of positive growth, 0.7% and 0.3%, above expectation and one of the highest in the G7.

Similar to the last GE and Labour there

So as I said lying is not an issue for Reform voters.

BBC says "So, although it’s no longer true in Q2, the chancellor is likely to continue with a different version of the same claim".
"The chancellor has just made the “G7-leading” claim, this time on a slightly different basis.
The UK has definitively slipped from the top to the middle of the G7 table for Q2, falling behind the US and possibly Japan, which is yet to report"

And Labour voters.

I don't think it's particularly reasonable to expect anyone to know off the top of their head

If I had influence in government, I'd set the civil service to do an investigation and make evidence-based recommendations.

For a start, the NHS already do some calculations on Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) to assess the cost-effectiveness of medical treatments. I'd expect some detailed digging into that - and re-consideration of the level needed to go ahead with treatment - and also overlaying that with additional cost benefit analysis applying social benefit in addition to patient benefit. I'd expect them to look at historic costs and patterns, and probably also compare health spending on different areas with other countries and compare outcomes.

And I'm sure that given more than 2 minutes thought, there is much more to analyse. I expect any government to put significant thought and analysis into understanding options and consequences for any major policy - but Labour don't seem to bother with that.

Surely you're not suggesting that we can't ever reduce government spending? Yes, it will mean some people don't get treatment for things they currently do. That will have negative wider consequences too. But it still needs to be done. The NHS is not a sacred cow that can never be touched. All our governmens ever feel able to propose is 'efficiency savings', which is just a cop out. Just as 'investing in the population benefits the economy' is over-simplified, childishly idealistic fantasy.

I don't think it's particularly reasonable to expect anyone to know off the top of their head

I assumed if you were advocating for making some NHS services unavailable you would have least thought about it & had some ideas.

Surely you're not suggesting that we can't ever reduce government spending?

Why do you think that? Because I don't buy into making fewer services available on the NHS?

Under Sunak, in the months running up to the election the economy grew 0.7% and was the fastest growing economy in the G7 group of countries with advanced economies in the first three months of that year.

The fundamental problem is that growth of 0.anything doesn't = an economy which is growing sufficiently to allow for any headroom for any chancellor.

The UK continues to bump along but isn't creating a situation where there is much money to spend so chancellors of any colour have to rob Peter to pay Paul and dress it up in various word salads.

And Labour voters.

I thought you were arguing that labour voters turned to Reform because labour were dishonest?

I never made that claim, but we are still one of the better performing economies, we have already exceeded OECD growth, which predicted 1% for the entire 2025, UK has done that in 2 quarters.

UK grew 0.7% Q1..

So Labour are no worse than the the Tories.... well we are, because in 2022/23, they had us in recession.

But under Labour we are heading for total collapse and the IMF....

I don't think anyone should be happy with 0.xx growth but i will push back that we are suddenly heading for the IMF....

bw GDP per Capita is up too, first time in a long time.

Under Sunak, in the months running up to the election the economy grew 0.7% and was the fastest growing economy in the G7 group of countries with advanced economies in the first three months of that year.

0.7% growth over a few months is shit & what is the baseline? Growth has been pretty much none existent since the crash.

"Figures from the House of Commons library show the UK’s real GDP growth is only 1.7% compared with its pre-pandemic level; it is 8.7% for the US and 3.4% for the eurozone."

What’s mostly driving the move to Reform is the failing on ‘smash the gangs’. Also just people being annoyed with Starmer, Reeves and Labour.

The UK continues to bump along but isn't creating a situation where there is much money to spend so chancellors of any colour have to rob Peter to pay Paul and dress it up in various word salads

I don't disagree with this point