To think this is not how raffles work?

[PopcornAndPizza]

Hotly contested discussion at work and although light-hearted I now think I'm either losing the plot or almost all my work colleagues are all weird.

A colleague was pleased yesterday that she had won a coffee voucher at her grandsons school raffle. She mentioned her prize was the 8th top prize and that unfortunately her ticket didn't win any more prizes after that including the top prize which was a tablet.

I was only half paying attention until the other colleague (that I think is right) then said well surely they announced that one first? To which she replied well no they did that one last to build suspense.

To help the other colleague I tried to point out that's not how it works because then your ticket isn't actually in with the chance of winning the top prize but only me and this one other lady had this viewpoint, everyone else couldn't see the issue.

It's not us is it, that's not how raffles work? Surely the top prize should be drawn first so everyone has an equal chance at winning?

I can only think of one raffle I've entered where the winners didnt pick their own prize from the table. And that was drawn in reverse order. Best prize last. It never considered that this might be unfair. Mind you, i also won first prize!

The last raffle I entered they stopped drawing tickets when there were about 4 things left on the basis that no one ever wants the last few things, but takes them because they have to. The 4 things left were the only things I wanted! I was far more annoyed than I should have been!

But mathematically, the best prize could be first, last, whenever - your odds of winning that best prize from the outset are the same

It doesn’t sound like that’s what happened. She still had 4 goes to win a prize after her first ticket was called

I miss the old competitions where you could win an actual car by throwing 7 sixes in one go. They used to be relatively commonplace at fetes and carnivals, but I haven't seen one for ages now.

The actual odds were always a lot steeper than they emotionally felt like they should be. The prize would usually be on display and sponsored by a local dealership, who would obviously enjoy the maximum publicity - and they would take out a special insurance policy to ensure that they didn't have to stump up themselves just in case somebody did win!

Oh gosh maybe you’re right - I’m going to sleep on it! Arghh! Maths was the only subject I failed twice and I was so confident with this too! 😅

Surely that depends on the tea blend?

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Always drew top prize first so everyone had equal chance

I think saving the best prize till last is still the best way and keeps the bittersweet beauty of the raffle concept going. All the tickets are in there at the start… your ticket gets drawn first, yay - but it’s only a coffee voucher. Oh. That’s the luck of the draw. And so on for the next ticket and prize. But if you’ve bought loads of tickets - which is what the fundraisers want - you’ll still have a chance to win the big prize at the end with your other tickets.

Or if you’re like me, you never win anything, not even a key ring, so problem solved.

This debate is a whole different kettle of fish

(but which combination of fish would make the tastiest stew...?)

Er, me; fish supper beats a party night every day of the week! 😃

It seems a bit silly officially designating the prizes as 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. Much better to draw and then let the winner choose a prize - which of course will probably be the best remaining prize.

That makes it unequivocal then, as to who is 'luckiest' and thus what is fairest.

It also adds a bit of interest sometimes, and extends the suspense, as the winner may not automatically go for the 'best' remaining prize, if one of the apparently lesser ones interests them more - e.g. a tee-totaller might choose the standard box of Thorntons Continentals instead of the Jeroboam of champagne.

Same! I have no interest in a party night for 10 people. Fish supper for 2 would feed the teens for a night though!

It seems a bit silly officially designating the prizes as 1st, 2nd, 3rd etc. Much better to draw and then let the winner choose a prize - which of course will probably be the best remaining prize.

Agreed but you can only do this if all winners are present.

Raffle runners have to ascertain value of prizes for the return they complete for local council or wherever they get their lottery licence from, so makes sense to list by value if you can't have people there choosing.

From the outset yes, but not once your ticket has been removed from the draw! That's what most people are missing. Once your ticket has been removed because you won a teddy, your chance of winning the car is zero. Your odds have changed. It doesxmaje a difference.

Apart from the maths (and I admit to being a bit shaky on questions of probability) if you do it in reverse order o to peak, you remove the option that people often take i.e if you've won a prize and have several tickets, etiquette suggests you then waive your prize if you win again, because you've already got the best prize (I know some CF's would grab all the prizes if they could but I'm talking about nice people). But if you've got ninth prize and the tablet or whatever is still on the table, no multiple ticket holder going to drop out, so could theoretically keep going until they'd won everything on offer from a hula hoop to a laptop.

Its all very theoretical as far as I'm concerned, because on the rare occasions I won anything in a raffle it is lavender scented floral embroidered handkerchiefs, or weird plastic hooks to hang your handbag from a table (wtf ???)

Well, yes, the odds of winning subsequent prizes changes once the initial prizes have been won. But that doesn’t affect the fairness of the order of the prizes - assuming you can’t buy tickets once the draw has started, your odds of winning the car when you buy your ticket will be identical whether the car is won first, last, whenever. The ordering affects the human element of the game, but the maths doesn’t care about that!

The odds of winning the jackpot on the lottery fall significantly if you don’t match the first ball, but the lottery is still fair.

With multiple prizes it should be announced which prize the draw if for. And you can only have one winning ticket obviously!

That's usually how raffles go to me.
An announcer says "For the Costa Coffee voucher.... ticket number 354. For the basket of jams.... ticket 175".....and so on until the final prize which is usually the star prize.

If you are that desperate to win the main prize the only solution is to buy as many tickets as there are prizes.
20 prizes...buy 20 tickets.

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worst evening ever was a charity carol concert where awarding the raffle prizes went on for an hour and a half. I'd gladly have paid an entry fee and not had to endure the raffle prize awards.
Scrap that, it was a really crap evening altogether.
I'd have made a donation and stayed home with some mulled wine.

This.

Otherwise you're lowering the odds for the higher value prizes.

1000 tickets sold.

Each ticket has a 1 in 1000 chance if winning top prize.

Too prize gone.

Bow each ticket has a 1 in 999 chance of winning second prize

Then 1 in 998

Etc

It does in some places.

Rules for on the day only draws are much more relaxed than buy in advance tickets.

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I say the chances of winning are equal at the time of starting the draw which is the key thing. Although I can see it's a bit of an anticlimax if you only buy one ticket and then get drawn early. But most people buy a strip. But then you are in the can you win twice dilemma.

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