What do you think will happen to the state pension in the future?

[Darkling1]

I’ve heard people say that it may be means tested in the future. I’m in my late 20s and wonder what the state pension will look like years from now.

I’ve recently started to invest a small amount into a SIPP each month. I can’t help but worry about the state pension, especially as the age keeps rising.

I think the age of state pension will continue to rise over time. I can see it being pushed to 75 by the time I’m eligible to claim.

What do you think will happen to it?

The state pension IS enough to live on. In some exceptional circumstances pension credits (welfare) may be needed. Say a single retiree in rented accommodation. That’s according to the IFS btw:

https://ifs.org.uk/publications/future-state-pension

Generally, if you want a better retirement you’ll need to earn it.

Link to earnings is the obvious solution surely! 1/3 of national average earnings seems a good balance.

I’m 39 I have paid into the system for over 20 years at this point. But have around 30 years left before pensionable age.

I think it will be means tested for sure, or even not existing at all.

I auto pay into a workplace pension so I expect this will rule me out of any pension provided by the state.

I’m sure that those without a workplace pension will have the state pension or a version of it though.

It is definitely a frustrating position to be in, but not sure what else can be done, plus each subsequent generation will have it harder.

That report is 18 months old. You really think the COL crisis hasn’t gripped people to a significantly greater degree since it was written?

Not really no.

I've been looking for figures on changes in life expectancy, and here is one.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/articles/mortalityinenglandandwales/pastandprojectedtrendsinaveragelifespan

(England and Wales, for those born between 1841 and 2020). If I've got any of the following wrong, feel free to correct me, I'm no statistician.

If you look at Figure 2b, for women, the modal age of death (the most common age for women to die) was 76 in 1841 (with the other measures in the graph much lower) and this didn't change a lot until around 1920. It then crept up and by 1960 (so today's 65-year olds) it was nearly 80. For those born in 2020 it's around 89. So in those 60 years it rose more than in the previous 120 years.

They also give figures for "period life expectancy", which I hadn't heard of before, and is a kind of average - this goes from about 43 in 1841 to about 74 in 1960 to about 83 in 2020. So today's 5-year old girls can expect to live about 9 years longer than today's 65-year old women.

And of course the birth rate is falling, so there will be fewer tax payers to support those 5-year olds in the future.

What the figures don't say is whether the age of healthy, fit, living has also risen, or what percentage of elderly people are living with ill health, or how many 60-70 year olds are fit to work, and in what jobs (and if they lose their job, who would hire them). I guess all this is hard to quantify.

So what do you think this means for the future of the State Pension?

I don't have a link to hand, but I'm pretty sure that I have previously seen stats that said that although life expectancy has increased, healthy life expectancy has not (or at least not by as much) so people are spending longer in poor health in leter life.

So more costs to the tax payer for those who fail to provide/look after themselves.

I think only those who have private pensions will be able to retire in the future. Everyone else will be expected to work until they die. If there are no jobs available, they'll just receive jobseekers allowance or whatever it's called now. I'm 55 and don't expect to receive a state pension. It'll be either means tested or withdrawn altogether by the time I'm 67.

This is just plain hateful.

May you never get old, or ill, or poor, or poor from being ill..

Most of those people are still tax payers. I’ll be paying tax until the day I die if I live to be 100.

Yes, but you're taking out more than you're putting in. Very few people (epecially those not working) will be paying more tax than they're "using" in terms of public services, benefits, etc.

The problem with a lot of public sector pensions eg the TPS is that current teachers are not paying towards their own pensions. They are funding pensions for current retirees. It’s a ‘Ponzi’ model unfortunately so very hard for the government to unwind.

The problem with a lot of public sector pensions eg the TPS is that current teachers are not paying towards their own pensions. They are funding pensions for current retirees. It’s a ‘Ponzi’ model unfortunately so very hard for the government to unwind.

With respect there is also far less worth ethic, far more slacking and general playing of the sickness system in the public sector than would ever be tolerated in the private sector (at least until Angela Raynor gets her way) due to the fact its so difficult to get rid of anybody. Obviously not directed at anyone in particular as there are many diligent, hard workers in the public sector but also many under utilised / pointless middle management roles and general slackers that are never held to account

No it’s just being honest. The country is broken and economically heading to a calamity with all the ridiculous benefits being paid out everywhere.

Everyone will just start claiming disability. Let’s face it most people who are for example 75-80+ will have something that will disable them enough to claim.

Because the problem with saying no one will get a pension and everyone will have to work doesn’t include those who have never/rarely worked. If those claiming disability now at age 40 will still be claiming disability at 80, those who weren’t disabled at 40 will just start claiming disability at retirement age. You also have those people working part time/very low paid that get topped up with UC.

My parents in law are 75. In theory to look at them they look well. They both enjoy holidays and looking after grandkids occasionally. They both worked until in their mid 60s. But my FIL has a bad leg due to polio as a child and now has a severe back problem which requires regular injections and diabetes. MIL has arthritis and an eyesight degenerative disease as well as needing a knee replacement. So yeah in theory they could both potentially work in the right job. But they would also be able to apply for disability benefits. Which is what every older person (including me) will do if they totally remove state pension.

Because let’s face it. The government already tell you to make sure you get your 35/40 years NI payments in to make sure you get your pension. Oh but hang on. If you don’t, you just get pension credit instead which gives you the same if not more.

So if the government tell me I need to work forever, but those on disability/other benefits don’t, once I hit retirement age (or when I get medical issues sooner) I will start claiming disability as well. Or I’ll go and get the easiest job going for minimum wage and claim whatever other people claim. Because there’s no way in hell I’ll be continuing working full time at 75 when others who have never/barely worked don’t need to. I already have health issues due to my job. (Constant pain requiring regular physio - that by the way I pay for privately). I physically will not be able to do this job in another 30 years. In fact I’ll be lucky if I can make it to 15 more years. So yeah. I will claim disability. Sell my house first and spend that and enjoy what I can. Then the government can fund me.

This thread reminds me of The Mandibles by Lionel Shriver - a scary ‘dystopian near future’ novel about what happens when countries let the size of the public sector get out of control, borrow too much and forget that someone has to pay for it all. A very disconcerting read.

Not a good plan in my view. The brutal cuts which will follow our economic collapse will likely remove benefits for all but a few of the most needy and deserving.

We now have a similar debt level to Greece before their sovereign debt crisis (100%). en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis#/media/File%3AGreek_debt_and_EU_average_since_1977.png

There is no room for an economic shock. And there are lots of possible sources both in the UK and round the world. An IMF bailout will come with savage cuts to benefits. and take a look at what happened to the Green State pension!

Could be several things, or a combination of them. All would be unpopular.

• raise the state pension age (already happening)
• make it means-tested, like the first UK state pension. I don't think this will happen as it would be too unpopular and would reduce the incentive to pay into private pensions
• scrap it altogether and enforce some kind of personal savings scheme for old age - how could this be enforced though, especially for those not working? Plus it would need to be something you'd pay into over 40 years or so with a guaranteed result, unlike most saving schemes, and it couldn't be subject to change depending on the government of the day
• lower the level of the state pension (possible)
• raise taxes to pay for it - also possible, but the burden on younger people is already considerable. Many young people, with mortgage or childcare costs, already take home less than many pensioners
• give pensioners more benefits, like zero council tax, but that's really a form of raising taxes for other people, who would have to make up the shortfall

Well there’s literally nothing I can do about it unfortunately. I have worked years in self employed health care and only have a small private pension which will not be large enough to fully fund me. I own my own decent size house which I plan to sell and downsize to fund retirement. But once that is gone, it’s gone. I’m happy to just live on state pension and my small private pension. But if they remove my state pension meaning I cannot afford to live at all then yes I will claim benefits. Whatever benefits you want to call it. But there will be something available to claim for the 75 year olds in bad health who no one will employ. The same way there’s pension credit available now for those who didn’t bother working and paying NI.

Anyway luckily, no one in my family lives very long so I doubt I will. I can only name one family member who made it past 72. That’s including parents, grandparents, aunts and uncles. So quite honestly I don’t think I need to worry much anyway.

There is lots you can do about it. Just because we are a debt supertanker heading for the iceberg, doesn’t mean you should accept your fate.

Some changes to government policy now, scrapping the triple lock, trimming PIP motability and other benefits getting abused will help avert disaster. Write to your MP and get your voice heard.

How do you know I’m taking out more than I’m putting in? I wasn’t aware that I’d shared my financial details with you.