To ask what will happen to primary schools now?

[drspouse]

My DS is 13 and AIUI that's the largest birth year and then there is a decline.
DD is 10 and almost everyone got their first place choice of secondary school in her year. Her school is advertising that their Reception is not full (DS was allocated another school and then got in on the waiting list).
So what happens when the number of pupils dips further? The primary school has got a nursery and baby unit, but it's got one classroom per class and it can't really close partially - it's two form entry - what happens to schools that eventually have a full class fewer?
A secondary school has closed locally and there are probably village primaries that will close but if this big town centre school has spaces eventually some schools will lose a whole class full, won't they?

They gradually lay off teachers.

It's very tricky.
Initially they will often do things like try to reduce PAN. (The number admitted)

So rather than trying to run two classes of 24 which is expensive, they will either reduce to one class. Or occasionally 1.5 class worth(45) and run mixed year groups.

If they can't fill a whole class and it gets to 15 they will run mixed year groups if they deem that a school is needed (like some rural schools)

Or schools merge and one site closes.

They will also try things like sharing heads and other services across sites to balance the books too..

But other areas are desperately in need of teachers.

My kids go to a small school that’s getting smaller, as is every other primary school in the area. Financially it is problematic and some local schools are merging years in classes (so eg two or three classes out of four year groups in KS2), some are reducing to one form entry, some are making substantial cuts elsewhere.

I imagine that in a few years either some of them will merge or a couple will close. If there’s fewer children then fewer schools are needed - I don’t think it’s a massive issue, except for a few unfortunate children who’ll end up moving at inopportune moments.

Schools close - already happening in London with several primary schools having shut down.

Which areas area seeing this sort of decline

My dc primary had to mix years 1 and 2 because of low numbers. However, there are 3 large primary schools all within 10 minutes walk of each other. The next to school to us is literally at the end of the road.

@MyHeartyCoralSnail , central
London.

Our town has built 2 new Primary schools with the new housing estates.

The council has also shut 3 village Primary schools and teachers have been offered jibs at the new schools.

I gess that's what is happening all around, there is no point in keeping small village schools open.

We have just had a consultation to close up to 6 primary schools on the Isle of Wight. 2 have been approved so far.

If I am remembering correctly as this year group was before my time, the year you are talking about had a low intake here at our infant school. It then rose again for several years up until 2018. It was then oversubscribed that year, before cutting down to below half the following year, getting less than 20 for the next year and then going back down to half for this coming September. It's a worry. Big schools don't work for all children and I wanted a small village school for mine. I do wonder if the infant school will merge classes then eventually close but I hope not. My children have been so lucky to have the start they have had and I'm pleased we will get them through before it closes.

Some will reduce their size from 2 form to one and a half form. Some of the smaller ones will close completely - particularly rural ones. This is what happened when the birth rate fell massively in the 90s.

The bigger problem tends to come when the birth rate increases again and they need to reopen schools.

A primary school near me closed recently. All the pupils moved to another local school.

My ds was born in a very high birth year...when we moved house, it was really tough trying to find a school place in our new area. Now these same schools have banners up advertising places. Society is changing fast

Our PAN is reducing from 40 (a class and a half) to 30 in September. Yet our KS2 is full and we have over 40 in each yr group. We tend to get children joining after EYFS.

More money and teachers available as not spread so thinly?

Your right there aren't enough teachers most newly qualified don't last long. We have lots of agency teachers used so teachers don't need to worry about being out of work quite the opposite!!

It's not more money as money is given to schools based on pupil numbers.

Our local school had to expand from 60 to 90 places as so oversubscribed 10 years ago. People would move here to go there - one of those ‘you need to be right by the gates’ schools.

Now they can’t fill the spaces.

House prices are probably 50% more expensive though, so I imagine less families settling here with young kids.

Schools are closing or merging all over London and have been for a couple of years.
I expect that will happen elsewhere too.

We are in the NW. There are lots of nearby village schools some of which are tiny. But most of the town ones are PAN 30 to 90.
I am kind of wondering what will happen to the classrooms - the school can't shrink them.

@Whippetlovely

They might be able to increase the amount of money available per pupil, if there are fewer of them? One can hope...😬

The PAN of our Secondary school has just been increased due to local need. It was 180 a few years ago, then 210 (220 for current year 9 as they had more children in catchment than places) now 240.

My children at one point attended a school that originally had been 3 classes a year. There was 100 children in the whole school by then as the population dropped... each class had at least two classrooms, there were specialist rooms, and a whole floor wasn't used at all.

They’ll merge classes.

I’m in Manchester and this thread surprises me - our schools both primary and high school are hideously oversubscribed. Mine are in primary and I’m already nervous about high school places looking at the stats! I wonder if it’s area specific.