How do international flight prices work - booking flights 8 months in advance

[Blackkittenfluff]

Posting here for traffic.

I posted something linked to this a few days ago but it's led to me needing to ask another question.

I want to fly from Shanghai to Tokyo on 1 October and returning on 8 October.
This is during the Chinese national holiday - the mid-Autumn Festival.

Flights are already very expensive - 8 months ahead.
Is this it?
Will the price of flights go down a bit?

Having to book flights more than 8 months ahead seem very excessive, even factoring in the fact that there will be a lot of demand for flights out of China at this time.
Will airlines not put on more flights?
Should I wait a bit longer and book flights in a few months?

I'm just trying to get to the bottom of this.
I've never tried to booking flights this far in advance before, even for flights at Christmas.

YANBU - wait a few months to book the flights
YABU - book the flights now

I am not sure, but 8 months ahead seems early to book flights?
I might be wrong, though!

I have never travelled to or in Asia, but when I travelled from Europe to the US, I booked my flights around 2 or 3 months in advance.

But I understand that one might want to book early, to be sure, but it might be better to wait a little bit.

Hopefully someone can give better advice about booking flights to or in Asia.

Good luck!

Airlines forecast demand before tickets are even released for sale for peak travel times like the National Day Holiday in China (or Christmas in the UK). These are times of the year when the airline expects that it can easily fill the plane so it's mainly looking at how it can fill the plane with as high fares as possible. I wouldn't expect booking a long way in advance to save money for an obvious a peak time period unless the airline has got their calculations wrong and people don't book as expected. If that's the case prices may reduce closer to. Sometimes airlines miss a peak period (for example that there's a sporting event on) and don't get the demand mapped right - in those cases you can sometimes get lucky in you book well in advance before they notice!

Effectively, there's no way to know. The tickets may go up, or they may go down. With this type of people you stand a risk of the plane being completely full if you leave it too late so if you really need/want those dates I personally would just book. Check how much more it would be to book a fully cancellable ticket, which would allow you to book again if prices do drop (and cancel your existing booking).

Flights unlikely to drop. Sometimes there are deals through travel agents, especially tied to accommodation it i always book direct. 8 months is not that far ahead, I over have to book 2-4 weeks advance and that hurts more

And airlines can't normally easily add more flights to a schedule. Sometimes it happens but they'd normally know way more than 8 months out. Assuming it's a major airport in Japan, extra slots becoming available the airline doesn't already know about seems very unlikely.

For the price to go down nearer to the time, you'd either need another airline to release seats (for example in the UK I think Easyjet don't release until 6 months ahead whereas other airlines sell at least a year in advance).

Or you need sales to be lower than the airline hopes so they put on a sale to tempt more people to fly. I don't know if either of these points apply to this situation.

However, it could be that it's a very popular time of year and you have to book very far in advance to get the best price. I think it's similar when people want to travel from Europe to Australia or vice versa for Christmas, high demand increases prices.

It's possible that the only way to find a cheaper price is to go on a slightly different date or can you travel from another part of China or to another part of Japan? But that depends on how crucial your dates and route are and if you can't move these, then that's probably your answer - because many people want to travel at the same time on the same route.

Try calling someone like DialAFlight and ask for their advice. I've found them very helpful.

Generally prices will keep getting higher the closer you get. They may drop right at the end if airlines are struggling to fill seats. If you're booking at a peak time like before Christmas then you'll rarely get a great deal no matter when you book because they know the flight will sell out.

Look at taking out insurance that gives a refund if you cancel, that way if prices do plummet for an unexpected reason you could rebook.

I'd be booking them now. Isn't the holiday one of the biggest movements of people in the year. I'd want them booked, I can't imagine they would come down in price.

I have a relative who works for an airline in the pricing section. Flights are typically priced as highest when first released as those who must be there will book immediately. Then they fluctuate until a few weeks before flight date when they go back high as, again, those who must have the date will pay. If any left a day or so before then you may well get a good deal.

This isn't necessarily true for peak season flights.

The least likely scenario is that they put in more planes. It's not up to the airline as all the airlines out of the airport are on a tight departure schedule and there is limited runaway space.
I haven't really experienced flights going down in price... ever. So I wouldn't bank on that.

Use a price tracker like AirHint. They do fluctuate and they will email you when they do.

Have a look at the skyscanner and momondo tools https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/travel/cheap-flights/

If you need to travel to that airport on those dates then book it now, it's not worth the risk of them only going up or selling out altogether, especially at peak times.

Extremely unlikely that they'd add more flights as airlines don't tend to leave their slots unused, they either use them themselves or sell / trade them with their code share partners or other airlines.

If you're flexible on dates / airport then maybe keep an eye on them for a while and see what direction prices are going in.

I don't have anything definitive to offer as an answer but I doubt the flights will get cheaper the closer you get to the time. Flight routes are planned many months in advance so supply and demand forces are going to kick in. My recent experience of flying to the USA was that we booked last May, 8 months before we flew in January. I had been monitoring flight costs before and after and we hit the sweet spot for pricing (give or take a day or two).

@Blackkittenfluff
Good advice from previous posters!

Good luck and happy travels!

Book now. Peak travel times for holidays in Asia are crazy! If you don't book now you likely just won't be able to.