To not know how to manage mortgage

[WhiteButtonMoon]

I am absolutely not good with financial understanding. I wish I was better, but I'm not, so I'd really appreciate some advice.
My 5 year fixed product has just ended. We were on 1.89%.
Gone on to variable of 8.25% now.
I want to fix, and am being quoted 4.33% for a 5 year fix, or 4.53% for a 2 year fix.
No product fees on either.
15 years of repayment left.
We will stay with the same provider as ivd entered all our details in to MSE and looking at all the deals on offer, our current provider is on a par with them all.
My big headache is - fix for 5 years or 2 years?
Currently giving myself a hard time as 2 weeks ago I was offered 3.99% but I didn't accept it as the BoE was expected to drop it's base rate, which I waited for and it did, and I thought that would reduce the mortgage rates but the opposite has happened and 2 weeks later it's increased to 4.33%. This is making me panic - that it's risen that much in 2 weeks.
I'm caught between a rock and a hard place. If I fix for 5 years I will be absolutely hammering myself if rates drop over the next year or two, because every little penny saved each month makes a massive deal to us.
Meanwhile, if I fix for 2 years and at the end rates have increased, I will hammer myself for that too, again, because even a small amount of money each month makes a massive difference to us.
I know none of us has a crystal ball, but this is so hard.
We are really struggling every month due to COL inflation, we're honestly really impacted by rises in fuel, groceries, utilities, etc.
2 young DC of 11 and 10.
We're older parents aged 50 and didn't expect to be in such financial challenges at this age when I was a younger adult.
We're middle earners public sector. No pay rise for 10 years whilst COL has risen exponentially has made us worse off in real terms than we were a decade ago and it's reeeeeally depressing the hell out of me. Thought we'd be financially comfortable by now, at least. But we're even worse off.
So that's why I'm in a muddle about how long to fix for.
Keep thinking the USA election will unsettle the worldwide economy and affect interest rates, but maybe I'm overthinking things?
Thanks for any advice anyone with financial skills could give!

Yeah I think this is what it comes down to. It's personal preference, especially as the sums involved are likely to be no more than a few pounds a week unless OP has a pretty big mortgage.

What's the rate for the remainder of your mortgage? At least then you'd know what you are paying each month, no nasty surprises.

Your main priority is to get off of the SVR asap. There's not a lot of difference between the 2 year and the 5 year and if you can get it with no fees I'd go for 5 year fix personally as I have 0 faith in RR not borrowing and spending more in April budget and Screwing the economy some more. The rates went up because of her borrowing and spending.

It's highly unlikely that rates will drop super low again. 4% is close to the long term average rate.
When we got our first mortgage we had the option of fixing for 5 years at 1.8% or 10 years for 2.1% we went with the 5y fix. It was only in the last 6 months of that fix that the rates went over 2% and when we renewed we went to 3.8%. We are happy with our decision. We used the period of low rates to massively overpay which has meant the mortgage was much less when we moved to the higher rate. We went with another 5y fix - 2 actually as we moved and ported the original mortgage and added a second to facilitate the move to a bigger house. We are 2ys down the line and both of our mortgages are at lower rates than those currently being offered. We like the security of knowing what we need to pay for 5 years. You win some you lose some but on average we are happy with how we are riding the waves. We count ourselves incredibly lucky that we were able to fix a couple of weeks before the Truss mini budget!

I'd fix for 5 years, on the basis that you seem to find making the decision difficult so it is probably best to put it off as long as possible! You don't want to end up paying 8% again in 2 years time while you make this kind of decision again.

Remember that these rates are result of experts producing their own forecasts over the next few years. It's a fairly competitive market, so both the rates will be set to make a normal level of profit on average, based on the information available now. It is highly unlikely that one offers an objectively much better deal than the other. Yes, after the fact, one may turn out to be better than the other. But there's no way you could know that now. It would just be good/bad luck!

I would fix for 5. Teenage years can be expensive.
I would look at saving any extra ££ you find firstly in an ISA each each year if above your fixed rate, and secondly in any method you can above the fixed rate allowing for tax on interest, thirdly in paying down the amount you owe.

I'd fix for 5 years, on the basis that you seem to find making the decision difficult so it is probably best to put it off as long as possible!

Agree, it's worth taking the process itself into account.

You can apply for a new fix 6 months before the expiry of the current one in some cases. If you know you're the sort of person who's likely to do that, you might easily be looking for rates maybe 17 months after you go onto the new one. Which is no problem if you find that stress free, and for some people it would work to their advantage. But if you're someone who worries and struggles with decisions, it doesn't feel like a lot of breathing time. Really I think a lot of this comes down to how the individual is likely to feel.

Brokers sometimes have access to particular deals. You might consider speaking to one informally to see if any better options are available.

Yes absolutely if you haven’t already done this.

Normally when you are offered a rate it is in place for a few months…has it expired that quickly?

if you want certainty and you can afford the 5 year I would do that.

Another day another hate comment from another dumb liberal.

Unlike you I don’t need to take a mental health day for your name calling.

Lets reconvene in 12 months. See which country is doing better financially.

Given the state of both your posts on this thread, I'd suggest a mental health day is exactly what you need.

No-one on this thread has offered any political views one way or another, apart from you

We just fixed for 2 years. No faff at all, a call with a broker and then all sorted.

Could you fix on 5 years for now and make as many over payments as you can within the limit allowed. Save anything extra and pay that in once the 5 Year rate is up?

I think I would be more annoyed at myself if the rate went up instead of down at the end of 2 years. But if I could comfortably afford the rate for 5 years then that's at least it's an extra few years of peace of knowing how much you need to pay each month.

Once you fix keep an eye on new rates a few months before the deal ends in case there is something lower.

You need to actually accept it though, from the post it doesn't sound like it was accepted.

That is such a shame …

I honestly don’t think it really matters that much - what matters is that you pick a fix ASAP and get off the variable rate. Being on the variable rate for just a few weeks might well cost you any gain from shopping around or waiting for a better offer.

You should be able to call up your provider today or do it online and be on a new fix from tomorrow.

IMO, taking into consideration that you have allowed yourself to fall into a punitive standard rate, I suggest fixing for as long as possible, if you can afford the monthly costs.

With the best will in the world, you are unlikely to become the type of person who in 18mo time starts researching best deals and seamlessly switches before the 2 year expiry. And 2 years goes by fast.

I'd fix for 2 years

Just a reminder that you do not need your mortgage to expire before applying for a new one.

@WhiteButtonMoon we are in exactly the same position, but just about to finish our 5 year fixed deal in December.

We knew the interest rate would drop, but were also surprised to see the mortgage rates go UP as we assumed they'd drop down. My bank were quick to drop my savings interest rate!!!

Stop focussing on the fact it's gone up. Your far bigger mistake was going onto the variable rate, as that cost you a HUGE amount in one month! You need to fix immediately.

Personally I'd go with the 5 year. We have decided that a 5 year fix gives us much more stability knowing how much it will be each month and not worrying what happens in 2 years time.