To think Kemi and Nigel will likely win the next UK election after making a pact of some kind and fighting on an immigration / identity politics platform?

[MumtananoBay]

Especially after Trump’s win today.

labour has a tiny lead at 27% today (6th nov, politico.eu polling )

tories have 27. Reform has 19.

so that’s a possible 46/27 which gives a right wing team up more MPs than Labour has now. (OFC in any pact they won’t get all those votes)

this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir.

Australia has been using an alternative location since 2012 so a long time. Maybe before even then brought back. It was a Liberal gov who brought it in but now Labor, which is like our Labour, have kept it.

So the idea a centre left gov can be far right doesn't really work. I think the UK will struggle with this hurdle as other countries put in harder policies but if numbers keep going up maybe it'll change

Exactly Starmer brought the party back to the center left. Kemi will take the conservatives a bit further right then the next leader will be more like center right cameroon figure then they will get elected. The country always swings from a bit to the left to a bit to the right. Overall the country is quite balanced.

Well I can't comment on Australia as I don't know enough about it, but certainly at least this labour government did the right thing and put Rwanda in the bin.
The only thing to do is to sort out the immigration process so it is efficient and claims are dealt with compassion and resolved quickly.
That is something the past government failed to do so immigration became a hot potato, and as we have trotted out on all the other threads in terms of immigration as a whole, the numbers needing dealt with are so bloody small there was never a need to make it so.
But that's what the previous government did.

A drop in approval ratings for a PM does not mean people don’t vote for them when an election rolls around. They can reluctantly vote though they find them unfavourable or they can not vote at all.

Approval ratings commonly drop for whoever is in government before budget and just after Christmas. It’s pretty common due to financial anxiety and NHS winter crises.

These polls are not indicative of an election result 2,3,4 years ago. We watched Conservative polling boom and bust for their entire time in Downing Street.

Yes. Keir is fucked. So unpopular. Won’t deliver economic growth just years of misery: high food prices, high energy prices, high rents, high mortgage costs, low growth, endless immigration, identity politics, falling out with our most important ally, lots more strikes.

Have you seen how far Reform has come in a short while? They were second in 100 seats where Labour came first. In some, Labour won by a tiny minority.

His approval rating is significant in terms of how quickly it plummeted and how soon after the election. Nice complacency though.

One of the few accurate comments on this thread.

Another one who can't see the window for the view in it.

Can you not see how this will become more problematic as numbers across the channel rise as well as deaths?

The former chief immigration officer has already said Starmer's approach is not feasible and a deterrent is needed. Rwanda in fact, but that's gone.

I don't think this will go away, if Starmer declares a national security issue it starts to put pressure on actually doing something about it

The discourse around migration is far right in that it is being used to create a scapegoat and division. We should be having a sensible conversation about it, but it's been weaponised and is deeply rooted in racial/cultural discrimination.

Ask yourself this, why, if immigration is such an issue, is the conversation focused around asylum seekers, who make up the less than 5% of total migrantion, and not legal migrants, who make up 85% of it? And if you don't think it has been racialised, why is the discourse around the cultural impact focused on Islam when the majority of legal migrants to the UK are Indian (Hindu), Polish (Christian), Pakistani (Muslim), Romanian (Christian) and Irish (Christian)?

The removal of protest rights is an attack on freedom of expression, that is far right in my books. Sure, you might agree with it in relation to stopping JSO protestors, but it now means that if you or I wanted to organise a protest against a government policy or actions we could be jailed for even attempting to do so.

The attacks on science are favourite stomping grounds of the far right. They push this to cause distrust in science-based evidence, in favour of emotional decision making.There's no need to believe in the scientific method, which has been behind virtually every human advancement for the last 500+ years, because this politician/personality knows best.

Same with the attacks on median You can't trust the MSM to tell the truth, what with it's regulators and professional standards, but you can trust this random social media account created today.The recent riots should have been a wake up call, when all it took to spark them was one rogue individual sharing rumours from a fake news sight.

The attempts to withdraw from the ECHR and repeal the HRA should be self explanatory.

Well if it were me I am in favour of legal routes for immigration, so applying before arriving in the UK, which stops the need for traffickers.
As we know, most claims even under the tories were approved anyway, they just took so long to process excuse they caused an enormous backlog, adding to the perception that immigration = bad news.

I think we dismiss Reform as unelectable at our peril.

Trump, Meloni, Orban, Le Pen, Wilders. “Far right” is becoming mainstream all over the world.

And if other European countries continue electing staunchly anti immigration parties the U.K. will have to go the same way in terms of immigration policy. Partly because it’ll catch on here - immigrants are always an easy scapegoat - and parties who need votes will pander to this.

But partly for practical reasons - we can’t take all the worlds migrants because politics has shifted.

So does the far right not exist at all in your opinion?

I know people believe this can be done but no country will do this. It's not feasible, you won't meet the demand

That’s what far right is? Sensible policies from men in suits?

Sounds a bit far fetched. Sounds like you do t know what it means.

Op, the poll provided does not prove 'everyone hates starmer.'
Where I live most people would rather commit suicide than vote for Farage or even the Tories. Barely anyone voted for him in the actual election.
And yes, Farage is racist. What is it you like about him?

Most of us stupid enough to vote for such crazy people!!!

No, not anyone I don't agree with, just those espousing far right views or policies. Can you give a specific example of where you think this might apply?

So has every PM’s since Boris Johnson. Net favourability is a reflection of the wider political and economic landscape. We also haven’t had an election so close to the autumn budget since 1974.

What does complacency have to do with someone’s opinion of the long term trend of figures? Are you unable to have a discussion like an adult without nasty parting shots?

I think we used to have safe and legal routes for asylum seekers, but now unless you are from the Ukraine, Hong Kong or Afghanistan there is no legal way in unless you satisfy the earnings rules etc for the 90% of the other immigrants. Unlikely for those seeking asylum on day 1.

How many would you have to say yes to and how many countries to meet the demand?

It literally does.

and I don’t think he’s racist. I think he believes English culture is worth standing up for and defending. Clearly a lot of people think the same. You do you OFC

I doubt Kemi will even last a year.

Also, people forget that in the General Election we just had, Reform (headed by Farage) got approx 4 million votes which is the almost identical number of votes that UKIP (also headed by Farage) got in the UK General Election 10 years ago. So number of voters for Farage or that kind of political sentiment have stayed virtually the same. No “dramatic surge” in that direction in this country so much.

Also, in the General Election we just had, Labour won very many seats in Tory heartlands (breaking that “Blue South” wall). Some of those counties had been historically conservative forever.

I think in this country, people’s political sentiments on their social and fiscal axes don’t align as much as people in other countries. There is a huge chunk of the population over here that is socially liberal but fiscally conservative and a huge chunk of the population that is socially conservative but fiscally liberal. Probably almost just as many as who are conservative on both and liberal on both. Nothing goes down clean lines anymore. Leftists aren’t the same thing as liberals and conservatives (small c) aren’t the same thing as being right wing. America is much more binary along lines whereas our voting populace is probably a little more dimensional and it’s harder to predict where things might be in 4-5 years time culturally. A week is practically a lifetime in politics, let alone 4 years.