Another budget one. Sorry.

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I keep seeing posts about how this budget will be so bad for us all, am I the only one who won't be (personally) directly affected? Or at least, in a negative way?

I get the issues around businesses and NI but I am a civil servant.

I will get a pay rise! Yep, you read that right. I earn NMW so my wages will go up.

And I don't have a 'gold plated ' pension.

I totally get there will be a lot affected but I can't be the only one who benefits can I?

Sorry, I think you may not have looked at the link I posted. It is the figures supporting the budget. The expected revenue take into account the pupils projected to leave the sector (as explained in the notes). You are double counting by deducting them again.

Because they underestimated the number of pupils leaving Indy sector. IFS said proper detailed consultation was required, Labour refused so they use an overly optimistic figure. I have got 1000s of examples of parents pulling their kids out. 10% in DDs year group so far this year.

The fact they tax education but leave gambling at current levels says everything

Not bad for me. I work for a University. I live only of my wage.
Investment in NHS will have a big impact on my family, as one is waitig for two major surgeries, well overdue, other for physio and diagnosis and I have conditions that need monitoring. Last two, we have issues and lengthy waits getting appointments. The family member waiting for surgery cannot currently walk, yet nothing is been done. This will remove them from the working world till they get the first surgery, more than 6 months overdue.
So many people are in this situation. It needs to change, now.

I am surprised that many are moving mid year. Where are they finding spaces?

Virtually everyone is going to feel the effect of this budget whether it hits their payslip or not.

Every business or service you use will put their prices up, whether that’s the vet you take your dog to or the corner shop where you buy your bread.

Many small independent shops, cafes, pubs and service providers will close.

Unemployment will rise

Cost of living will continue to rise.

You know who it won’t impact? The wealthy. Ask yourself why a Labour government isn’t taxing the rich appropriately?

Why are you surprised? 20% increase = 2K ish for rest of year. Many parents can't afford it. We said that would happen, it was a foreseeable consequence of bringing the policy in mid-year.
They aren't finding places in many instances so LAs are being forced to shoehorn them in

I'm surprised purely because I am surprised there are spaces in good state schools. The best schools around here are over subscribed but there are some spaces in the less good schools, so I guess the kids would go there.

I am also surprised because it's very disruptive. But I can see that if 2K can't be found it can't be found. I think I had not realised just how close to the wire so many private school parents were.

It also doesn't take into account VAT recovered by schools as part of the policy change

Probably because you believed Labour when they said only wealthy people use indy schools?
Could you afford to pay extra 2K on mortgage or rent between January and June? Because it's the same comparison

Regarding business putting their prices up, well that would mean yhey do have to pay even more tax, so there is only an amount that will make sense.
Not for small business, but large ones will have to consider reducing their idiotic profits and the moronic bonuses. Have you ever checked how the wealth distribution graphs are looking these days? While the working, middle class and pensioners have to watch their smart meter daily?

Yes, I could, we've got some savings.

And I do find it hard to believe that 10% of parents at your DD school have no savings at all.

Why would they spend savings to help buffer for redundancy etc? Not sure why you find it so hard to believe that everyone has a tipping point. Every household has a budget that they can't go above.
Fundamentally I don't care if you believe me or not, I can only go on what i know and have seen. Oh and the 1000s of other such parents

Do you have a pension? You’re likely a shareholder in one of those ‘moronic’ businesses 🙄

I appreciate that you know the sector better than me. All the parents I know at private school, while not rolling in wealth, are able to manage the payments, at least for a while.

If you are right in what you say, the private school sector will fold in a couple of years. If 1000s are leaving now, mid year, then even more will leave at natural points of change. I think that private schools do have their place, so it will be a shame if that happens.

You seen to be just coming on this tread shooting other peoples opinions down without sharing your superior knowledge by posting any comment yourself

The OP asked if anyone else was benefiting, well my sister who is a carer for our mum can now earn more before having her carers allowance removed.

The Liz Truss budget cost my family £300-£400 a month more in mortgage payments.
This budget has a net zero effect on our income and immediate outgoings.

I work for a Local Authority, Ive had below inflation pay rises for over 10 years, low or non existent pay rises wont be anything new to me.

Of course some companies may pass their increased costs onto customers -such is life.

Employers always loudly protest about any NMW increases, any extra bank holiday etc

However some companies such as Amazon, who pay limited UK tax as they are registered abroad, will now have to pay increased tax via NI contributions as this is more difficult to avoid.

The conservatives didnt do farmers any favours either- several farmers local to me drove their tractors up to Westminster to protest just a few months ago about post brexit trade agreements that disadvantaged them.

The conservatives have bought the country to its knees with its in fighting, brexit and self serving policies. Both the NHS and Education - services my family use- very noticeably declined under the last government.
Pay for most people hasnt kept up with inflation.
Something needs to change and if we need to pay more taxes for the public services we need then sobeit.

I don't think I will be hugely affected unless I'm missing something.

I work for a very large multi national company who can afford to suck up the NI increases and they do increase our wages every year with inflation.

I am not due to inherit anything other than my mum's house which is only worth about £150k.

No DC at private school or anything.

Prices for some things will probably go up so may find myself paying more for services. Not a massive deal as I'm due a pay rise in January, so I likely won't be any better off but not worse either.

Yes there will be many indy schools closing. Not the famous ones like Eton, but many of the smaller ones especially those serving rural communities or SEN ones.

Higher taxes don’t translate to better public services though and actually I for one want to see less govt not more but I don’t get an opt out !

@Beezknees i wouldn’t bank on that pay rise!

Reeves’s long-term spending figures almost as unrealistic as Tories’ were, IFS says – UK politics live https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/oct/31/rachel-reeves-autumn-budget-labour-tax-rises-uk-politics-latest?CMP=share_btn_url

One for your dh.

Yes it does. Again this is set out in the document:

"After recovery of VAT on their costs, on average the government expects schools to be liable for VAT amounting to approximately 15% of fee income, though this will vary between schools."

You seem to really want this policy to be fiscally ineffective. Of course, you are correct that if the independent sector shrinks by massively more than 7% of pupils (the IFS upper projection used in the budget) then the figures will be different and if enough students leave then it will no longer be a net benefit. But there is no credible report suggesting this will happen (and you haven't provided a link to any report that does suggest it).

I am sorry this policy will be negatively affecting you personally. But I think that your upset about this, which is entirely understandable, is causing you to twist the available information.

Tax on packaged alcohol is increasing in line with RPI. Only tax on draft served alcohol is decreasing

Do you live in a bubble or have the power to fly? Just wondering how you avoid pavements, have your bins emptied, see as you walk/drive due to lighting? Also, who would you call if you needed an ambulance?

It's been committed to since 2023.