to be really worried for Ukraine and Gaza if Trump wins the US elections?

[ILoveAnnaQuay]

I'm worried sick about what will happen if Trump wins the presidency again. It isn't like 2016 when the world was more stable and Trump wasn't as manic as he seems to be now.

If he wins, will he be "managed" by his advisors or will he plough ahead with his own agenda? If so, Ukraine will be doomed and the situation in the ME will deteriorate even further.

I'm aware from social media that people in other countries - particularly the Baltic States, for obvious reasons- are very worried about this. My sister in Australia says people are talking about it a lot over there, but in the UK no one seems very interested, whereas I'm lying awake at night worrying about this.

So, AIBU for worrying about this - its not a big deal and the world won't be any less safe
or
IANBU. people need to be more concerned about this

Clearly just me then!

I was worried the first time he became president as there was a lot of scare mongering about how he would destabilise the entire world but to be honest I think his influence is limited when it comes to the rest of the world. His ambition is to win over the American people not world domination in my view.

I agree

He will withdraw weapons from Ukraine and increase what goes to Israel in order to kill off the remaining population in Gaza, there will be no harsh words for Israel anymore. However I do not think Harris will be much better , she will just pretend now and again she cares about non Israeli civilians like Binden but will carry on sending the weapons.

Can you explain what good is already happening to Ukraine and in Gaza that he will undo

I think with Ukraine, other countries (e.g. the UK) are also sending weapons etc. So it wont completely dry up the supply, but because they are the largest economy (with by far the largest military) of the countries sending aid they are the biggest donor so it will have an impact. Personally, I would support the UK increasing the amount of aid it sends to try to offset any American reduction, but we wouldn't be able to replace it. Plus the impact on UKs budget and ability to retain enough to protect itself. So its not that Ukraine is immediately doomed. But its not great.

While Ukraine's independence and their citizens obviously matters in its own right, there are wider implications. Russia basically tried to use the fact they had nuclear weapons to force other countries to accept their military intervention. If they look like they have succeeded then its not only that Putin is likely to use that method again. Realistically other countries will as well, and then we aren't really in a world where nuclear weapons = strategic defense. We are in a new exciting time when nuclear weapons = strategic offence. Which should be interesting.

MightSoundCrassButItsFactual · Today 12:21

Can you explain what good is already happening to Ukraine and in Gaza that he will undo

Well, as explained in the preceding post, he's promised to stop arming Ukraine. His friend Putin will benefit greatly from that, because Ukraine's ability to resist the Russian forces will be greatly diminished.

He'll give Russia and Israel a blank cheque to do what they want in Ukraine and the Middle East. A truly despicable and evil man.

He has openly stated that not only does he not think America should intervene if its NATO allies are attacked (Article 5), but that he actually encourages other countries to attack them. I am not someone who is gung ho about military intervention. But one of the main benefits of mutual defence treaties like NATO is that they can prevent wars through deterrence etc. Of course, this can go wrong (see WW1) but in its whole history Article 5 of NATO had only been triggered once (of course this was in mutual defence of the only country that matters) so you could argue it worked. Having the President of America state that he doesn't think they should be beholden to the treaty renders it worse than useless and actually increases the chance everyone could accidentally get dragged into a huge war. Either you have a mutual defence pact or you don't, this shitting about is the worst of both worlds.

Also, Putin is not a nice person, but you will notice that he tends to stick by allies e.g. Assad through thick and thin. Its not because he has a strong sense of decency. Its because it makes political sense to do so. The same reason the Mafia keep promises. The more America openly proclaims that it doesn't intend to be beholden to treaties once they aren't in America's interests anymore, the less likely other countries (especially those with big scary neighbours like China) are going to want to sign treaties with America. Expect then a lot of kvetching that those countries are choosing to do deals with China/Russia at America's expense. Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing depends on your view of America/China/Russia. But it definately changes the balance of power in the world in a way that creates more uncertainty.

It isn't just about hard power, or going to war etc. Its also about soft power and long term belief in promises etc

I don't know what worries you about Ukraine specifically here. As it stands, Ukraine are wholly dependent on money and weapons from the Europe and the US which will have to stop sooner or later. If some kind of peace deal hasn't been negotiated by then, Ukraine will collapse and Russia can do as they please. That'll eventually happen after a couple more years of death and destruction. I think Trump would probably force an end to the situation now and avoid 2 or 3 more years of war, it probably means Ukraine losing the territory that Russia currently occupies but that's better than the obliteration of their entire country when the supply of western money and weaponry inevitably runs dry.

Somerford · Today 12:46

I don't know what worries you about Ukraine specifically here. As it stands, Ukraine are wholly dependent on money and weapons from the Europe and the US which will have to stop sooner or later. If some kind of peace deal hasn't been negotiated by then, Ukraine will collapse and Russia can do as they please.

I think that, rather than expecting Ukraine to win outright, the strategy is to engage Russia in a war of attrition, in order to weaken them both militarily and financially, until the eventually have to negotiate, like German did after the First World War.

I'm just worried in general at the thought of him winning

@MightSoundCrassButItsFactual Trump has said he will stop supplying money and weapons to Ukraine. He won't support a cease fire in the ME so Gaza will continue to be attacked.

@biscuitandcake thank you, you've summed up what I'm worried about.

Being American, I find both Trump and Harris concerning, they've both said things and have a track record that raise many concerns, and it's very frustrating that these were the 'best' that the two largest US parties could put forward when so many other options were available and could have done well with party backing. I'm also annoyed how other candidates have been ignored - Perot was in the Presidential debates in the '90s even when everyone knew his chances were slim - at minimum Oliver (Libertarian) and Stein (Green) who are both on enough ballots to hit 270 should be included. West (Independent) would have brought a lot to those debates as well.

I'm more frustrated and worried that the media is pushing the narrative that things will be really worrying either way - that one candidate will save us and the other will doom us - and I am concerned either way the vote goes that it's going to spark off things in a horrible way. Every vote since 2000 and the hanging chads of Florida has been contested and each time the ire has grown more. There has been a lot of discussion on the US side on the possibility of getting to a point where states refuse results at some point in our lifetimes.

However, this is also fairly unique that it's a former president and a current VP as candidates for the largest parties, so we've seen what they do in power, and I don't think Trump will doom us all if voted now anymore than he did before - from his latest speeches, I'll be surprised if he makes it four more years. I don't think Harris will doom us nor do I think she's going to save the US in the manner she and many of hers try to claim. If my country of origin can just not implode on the results, I think the balances in Congress and government officials can manage most of their wilder ideas. I think if we've learned anything with the Biden presidency and even Trump's previous one, it's that the President is a heavily managed position.

@RamblingEclectic i agree that the constant "this election is the one to decide democracy" drama that increases with each election is unhelpful. I don't think it's that day one Trump will be inaugurated. Day two apocalypse. But people from other parts of the world are entitled to be concerned about what this means for their part of the world not just America. Eg a tariff war between America and China would likely bring increased financial hardship to Americans but could actually have a worse effect on Europes economy even though Europe isn't directly involved. And there is a danger in the gradual eroding of democratic protections, political cooperation and international order. Stuff like Russians invasion of Ukraine and the world's reaction will have a very long tail and you might see the biggest consequences 20 years from now.

Besides which, be honest, as an American if someone said that if America was attacked again (as on 9/11) not only should the rest of NATO not get involved but that actually we. slhould encourage another attack on America... Would you think that person was super cool and based, or would you be annoyed with them. Likewise, I think it's reasonable for other countries in Europe (who have an ongoing bloody war in their doorstep) to think less of Trump for saying this and the Americans who think this makes him strong. That's not hysteria or TDS.

I am worried yes. But increasingly I am feeling enraged that British and European politicians have done so little over the last couple of years to prepare for this obvious risk.

We can't do anything about whether Trump is elected, and we can't do much about him being chummy with dictators who wish us ill. But we could have done a lot to be ready to deal with crisis he will create if he wins.

And we haven't.

Biden and Harris have sat on the sidelines and watched the carnage in Gaza with barely a word of criticism of Israel. I can't see how Trump can be any worse.

@Nogaxeh that is a really good point!

RamblingEclectic · Today 14:22

Being American, I find both Trump and Harris concerning, they've both said things and have a track record that raise many concerns, and it's very frustrating that these were the 'best' that the two largest US parties could put forward when so many other options were available and could have done well with party backing.

Yes, I'm British, but was relieved when they eventually binned Biden. I think Harris will be less bad, is all I can say!

Westfacing · Today 15:38

Biden and Harris have sat on the sidelines and watched the carnage in Gaza with barely a word of criticism of Israel. I can't see how Trump can be any worse.

Well, he's an enthusiast cheerleader for Israel. Look at how much it kicked off when he moved their embassy to Jerusalem. He also thinks that Israel is entitled to keep land it invades.

No matter what your view on the rights and wrongs of the two sides, it's expressly forbidden, under international law.

I'm.not saying I think Harris will be wonderful, but I do think that the US is in a powerful position re Israel and we are right to be worried.

My PIL live in rural PA and most people they know are planning to vote for Trump. I think it's going to be very close.

How could Gaza be worse off? Genuinely. The country is being destroyed right now. A genocide is taking place. How could Trump make it worse?

I am Christian though not American Evangelical who claim Trump is the Messiah. According to their fb posts , Kamala has a good chance to win so they urge all Christians to vote. May be do that if you are a Christian and do the opposite if you are not. Be fair on your country and do not withhold the vote

I'm.not saying I think Harris will be wonderful, but I do think that the US is in a powerful position re Israel and we are right to be worried.

Of course the US is in a powerful position re Israel - and what have they done for the past 12 months, nothing but support Israel and weakly talk of a ceasefire every now and then.