Should we all be worrying about a Ref-Con collaboration or coalition?

[LiterallyOnFire]

I don't know why I didn't think about this sooner - I suppose I assumed the Tories wouldn't want to associate with Reform.

Now the dust of the election is settling, though, could the Conservatives be desperate enough for direction that they try it? The world's gone a bit mad anyway, so why not that?

AIBU to be worried about it?

There was some coverage of the possibility before the GE.

Farage apparently declared himself willing.

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/13/farage-willing-to-lead-conservative-reform-merged-party/

(Behind a paywall but you can see the first para.)

Hopefully the rioting will make it less likely, but everything feels fraught this week.

I’m not sure about elsewhere, but Reform split the Conservative vote in our constancy leading to a Labour win, previously we’ve always been a conservative area.

Just from general chatter I’ve seen on Facebook, a lot of previous Conservative voters are moving over to reform. Who knows if this is actually the case though.

Yes it's what they decide to do about the split vote.

The Tories are quite divided themselves.

Hopefully I'm just scaring myself in an unsettling week.

I will Google more later to see what reassurance there is to find.

Far too many One Nation Tories who would rather chew broken glass than have anything to do with Reform, so no, I don't think there's any likelihood of formal coalitions and the like.

Far more likely the existence of Reform continues to drag the right of the Tory party even further right, and the Conservative Party simply ceases to exist in it's current form. Defections from the right of the Tories, or Reform absorbs the right, and the remainder rebrands as something else.

I don't see Reform as an ongoing concern anyway. It's clearly nothing more than a vehicle for the short-term ambitions of Trice and Farage and will go the way of UKIP. If it shifts the Overton window rightwards, and as a consequence splits the Tory party, it will have served its purpose.

Mm, I'm no fan of the Tories en masse (there are honorable exceptions), but I'm not keen to see the Overton window shift even further to the right.

And I do actually want a functioning opposition which puts country first, not ambitious narcissist first. I think One Nation Tories fit the bill, so I'd quite like them to actually recreate their party closer to the centre, instead of chasing the hard right.

Maybe I should study the lists of who lost their seats and who is still in the parliamentary party. Might be soothing.

And I do actually want a functioning opposition which puts country first, not ambitious narcissist first.

Quite.

The next election is a long way off so I don't think there is any immediate worry!

Think what has happened to Braverman's leadership chances suggests not?

No I know. It's quite a while for encouraging developments.

I was sitting in Sainsbury's car park, waiting for OH, with patchy signal and I started wondering if the Tories would survive the infighting and then I went down this tunnel of thinking maybe a slight majority of them would rather cooperate with the far right than split...etc.

I don't follow the ins and outs of parliamentary doings as closely as I used to, which doesn't help. My politics-nerd younger self would be so disappointed.

It's a depressing week and it's obviously getting to me.

Worry more about Labour's fairytales regarding the state of the public finances. The public records are apparently a great surprise to them...

Here we go again...

With regard to the OP, Reform and the Conservatives can scrap it out. I can't see them actually merging in any meaningful sense.

Reform and the Conservatives can scrap it out. I can't see them actually merging in any meaningful sense.

Realistically it would have to be a post-election coalition, because they won't collaborate easily, I suppose.

But unless they collaborated I doubt they get the seats.

I've been assuming all along that the large reform vote was largely a protest vote for a party that couldn't possibly win. So I'll concentrate on that.

There's an ongoing battle within the Tories between the wild-eyed ra ra populist nationalists and the more sober elements, who mostly got booted out under Boris Johnson.

My money is on a lurch to the Right by what remains of the Conservative and Unionist Party, especially if the Labour vote seems to be holding up in any future by-elections.

No need for a combined right of centre party at the moment. The best thing they can do is sit back and watch Labour implode which they are doing at a rapid rate already. It is pretty much the same tactic Labour employed at the last GE.

Hard to see Labour attracting any new voters at the next GE meaning they are totally at the mercy of the structure of the opposition parties.

I’m pretty sure Conservatives/Reform are fully aware of this and will reach some sort of consensus nearer to 2029. At that point, as is often the case, people will be desperate for a change and a “new” alternative will appear very attractive to many.

I struggle to see how Labour win a second term.

A formal coalition wouldn't be necessarily needed as long as Farage is leading the bull by the nose, which he is. He is setting the agenda for UK political discourse right now.