To stay in current job despite possible better offer?

[MerryGoSpherical]

Current job:
Tiny commute (2 miles)
Senior role, lots of different aspects (stressful but enjoy the variety)
Potential for more strategic stuff which is good for my career
I'm in a niche so there's no one to learn from as no one else senior does what I do
5 days in 4, so get 1 day with kids but have to work most evenings
Going through loads of redundancies, my team escaped last time but I think we'll be up for it next time so the future of my role is very uncertain
The team I line manager contains several difficult characters so hate this part of my role

New job:
Big commute (1.5 miles to station at either end, hour on train), would have to do one day a week
Same grade but focused on just one aspect so would be more straightforward, and it's my favourite part of the job (this part might be dropped in my current role too)
No real opportunities for strategic stuff but interesting people to collaborate with for project work that would be fun and possibly good for career
Bigger place so lots of senior people with similar interests so good for learning and developing
3 days, so 40% pay cut (would be same salary or small raise which would cover commute costs), but one day less childcare and free evenings
Hopefully much more stable place, no redundancy threats
Possibly line managing but hopefully easier people

My context:
40s, 2 primary kids, one in nursery. DH works 4 days, mainly from home but commutes a similar distance to new job once a fortnight or so. Currently able to build up savings on existing salary so could afford the pay cut.

I can't work out if the redundancy stress is making me panic, or if this might be a good move. They've actually reduced office space and so it's all hot desking, so although they're adamant that it's definitely a 40% attendance in their hybrid working policy I wonder if eventually there might be some flex in this. But obviously can't rely on it.

I do like working full time as I really enjoy work, but it would be great to get my evenings back.

YABU - new job is definitely better, go for it
YANBU - stay where you are, less money and a bigger commute isn't worth it

I would stay put and see what happens tbh. Might all be fine and if it isn't, you can job hunt then.

Thanks, I'm leaning towards that but worried that jobs don't come up often in what I do and I'll end up being out of work!

That is hard, all sympathy.

I would consider moving if it is just one day a week you have to do the commute. Is that definite? Could that be the day your DH doesn't work?

Stopping working evenings sounds worth it to me as does getting to focus on favourite bit of work. Is there scope for it to increase to more hours for example when your nursery aged one goes to school? How often do jobs come up in your area for you?

I would like to move but am staying put for flexibility but also because if I left for something else it would be tricky to return and there would be little else in this area that I would be qualified for