Meet the Other Phone. Only the apps you allow.

Meet the Other Phone.
Only the apps you allow.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Snap elections globally = sign of global war threat?

55 replies

visionahead · 17/06/2024 09:40

Please don't shoot me down with 'conspiracy theories', hear me out. This year more than any time in history, globally voters will head to the polls with around 65 countries meant to hold national elections. This represents around 49% of the people in the world, including some major economies / countries too.

Sunak called a snap election, yes, inflation had gone down but there had at that point already been signs that although energy prices will decrease short term, they will increase again in autumn.

Macron has recently called a snap election, supposedly because of the shift in France to the right after the EU elections. But he must have seen how badly the snap election decision affected Sunak and the Tories. He still went ahead.

Lots of other countries globally seem to have brought their elections forward to what had been expected late last year.

There have for some time now been lots of war talk from major heads of state and heads of defence in many countries including in Europe (Poland, Sweden, Germany, UK etc etc).

Am I unreasonable to think that some of the rush to get us all (not just in the UK) to an election is due to uncertainties about what lies ahead from a perspective of the Ukraine/Russia (and to an extend, Israel/Palestine) with a broader conflict expected?

If so, and I've never been a Tory voter, I do worry that even though the Tories have had a very bad track record (although to be fair to them an any other government in power during the last few years, have had to manage the worst pandemic for over a century and a war - can't think of other governments having to deal with that volume of challenges).

Imagine a new party coming in - how will that work if they're faced with global conflicts. Presumably, they would spend a good few months just settling in, finding their feet? Have we had examples in the past when incoming governments have had to immediately deal with a situation of war?

OP posts:
noshadowatnoon · 17/06/2024 11:30

By their very nature, random, unconnected events sometimes happen in groups

visionahead · 17/06/2024 11:38

Some of the people (and nations) who have expressed a potential threat of war - and in much stronger and clear terms than before:
Donald Tusk, Poland's PM
Rob Bauer, chair of NATO's military committee
Our own Grant Shapps, British Defence Sec
Karl Lauterbach, German Health Minister
Manfred Weber, leader European People's Party
Boris Pistorius, German Defence Minister (though he said within 5-8 years)
Norway & Sweden

OP posts:
visionahead · 17/06/2024 11:39

I take the point that Churchill came in and made an impact in 1940. Not sure Nigel Farage could do the same!!!!

OP posts:
WeRateSquirrels · 17/06/2024 11:40

fliptopbin · 17/06/2024 10:38

Ok, yes Sunak called a snap election, but we all knew it was going to be sone time this year, so it is hardly a surprise.

Exactly. I'm surprised anyone is surprised.

samarrange · 17/06/2024 11:42

visionahead · 17/06/2024 09:40

Please don't shoot me down with 'conspiracy theories', hear me out. This year more than any time in history, globally voters will head to the polls with around 65 countries meant to hold national elections. This represents around 49% of the people in the world, including some major economies / countries too.

Sunak called a snap election, yes, inflation had gone down but there had at that point already been signs that although energy prices will decrease short term, they will increase again in autumn.

Macron has recently called a snap election, supposedly because of the shift in France to the right after the EU elections. But he must have seen how badly the snap election decision affected Sunak and the Tories. He still went ahead.

Lots of other countries globally seem to have brought their elections forward to what had been expected late last year.

There have for some time now been lots of war talk from major heads of state and heads of defence in many countries including in Europe (Poland, Sweden, Germany, UK etc etc).

Am I unreasonable to think that some of the rush to get us all (not just in the UK) to an election is due to uncertainties about what lies ahead from a perspective of the Ukraine/Russia (and to an extend, Israel/Palestine) with a broader conflict expected?

If so, and I've never been a Tory voter, I do worry that even though the Tories have had a very bad track record (although to be fair to them an any other government in power during the last few years, have had to manage the worst pandemic for over a century and a war - can't think of other governments having to deal with that volume of challenges).

Imagine a new party coming in - how will that work if they're faced with global conflicts. Presumably, they would spend a good few months just settling in, finding their feet? Have we had examples in the past when incoming governments have had to immediately deal with a situation of war?

Lots of other countries globally seem to have brought their elections forward to what had been expected late last year.

Can you name some of them?

The only snap election I can think of is the one in France, and since that won't change the president (who can appoint literally anyone he likes as PM, and indeed can call another election right after the first one), it's not going to have the major geopolitical consequences that it would have if France only had a ceremonial president. Macron retains control of the nukes and the French armed forces, and he had a minority government anyway. However, he knows that realistically the French far-right (who, unlike Meloni, are not pro-Ukraine) will hold a lot of ministries, and so it's hardly the choice he would make if he's expecting to have to confront Russia in the next 12 months.

The UK's election is not a snap election by any means. It's 4 years and 7 months after the last one, and the average length of UK parliaments is 4 years. In fact it was a surprise to many that Sunak didn't call an election in March for the same day in May as the local elections. Foreign issues are barely causing a ripple in the UK campaign and there is no suggestion that Labour will have substantially different policies on Ukraine and Russia to the Tories. They might be slightly less supportive of everything Israel does in their rhetoric, but Starmer is strongly pro-Israel and anti-Hamas.

Other than that I can't immediately think of a major country that has brought its elections forward, let alone "lots".

dudsville · 17/06/2024 11:48

If that was the case then to what end?

BrigadierEtienneGerard · 17/06/2024 11:49

France alone has a totally unexpected election. The others were all due sooner or later it's just that the governing party picked an earlier date rather than a later one.

And in France's case the fresh election is the result of an election which was already held and had been expected.

You are overthinking all of this.

TellingHimToFloorIt · 17/06/2024 11:50

visionahead · 17/06/2024 11:39

I take the point that Churchill came in and made an impact in 1940. Not sure Nigel Farage could do the same!!!!

What does Farage have to do with it? And do you seriously believe that the Conservatives could steer the country through a war given how badly they've handled every other crisis they've faced (or, in the case of Brexit, engineered) and how worse off all of us are as a result?

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 17/06/2024 11:51

Sunak didn't call a snap election. It was happening at some point this year anyway.

unsync · 17/06/2024 11:55

Macron has not got a majority so has not been able to get anything much done. The Euros have given him the opportunity to do something about it. I think he's betting on people being shocked about the rise of the far right and there being a knee jerk reaction against that.

SnapdragonToadflax · 17/06/2024 11:56

visionahead · 17/06/2024 11:39

I take the point that Churchill came in and made an impact in 1940. Not sure Nigel Farage could do the same!!!!

What has Farage got to do with anything? Reform will get a handful of seats, he's not going to be anywhere near government (thank god). He's just a racist little pipsqueak agitator.

Watercoloursky · 17/06/2024 12:15

Yeah, that's the message that the Tory party official election videos have been making and activist have been trying to spread - 'ooh, the world is scary and dangerous, don't vote for change' - bit desperate that they're having to rely on fearmongering. Frankly, if tough times are ahead, I don't want this shower in charge, they haven't exactly covered themselves in glory during recent crises.

ThreeFeetTall · 17/06/2024 12:16

The majority of those elections were already going to happen in 2024. It's not a reason for drama.

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 17/06/2024 12:31

unsync · 17/06/2024 11:55

Macron has not got a majority so has not been able to get anything much done. The Euros have given him the opportunity to do something about it. I think he's betting on people being shocked about the rise of the far right and there being a knee jerk reaction against that.

Either that or he wants the far right to have a chance to govern for three years so everyone learns the hard way what a bad idea that is, stops flirting with fascism, and elects the centre left with a whopping majority in 2027. I can see some logic in the "we need to lance this boil" approach.

Moreorlessmentallystable · 17/06/2024 12:37

More to do with the general disatisfaction and the no confidence in the current governments that seem to be an issue globally.

unsync · 17/06/2024 13:15

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 17/06/2024 12:31

Either that or he wants the far right to have a chance to govern for three years so everyone learns the hard way what a bad idea that is, stops flirting with fascism, and elects the centre left with a whopping majority in 2027. I can see some logic in the "we need to lance this boil" approach.

I'm not getting that from people over here. I think he's just really frustrated at how little he can get done. I'm just waiting for all the posters to go up, for the Euros, there was one espousing the success of Brexit!!

MissScarletInTheBallroom · 17/06/2024 13:39

unsync · 17/06/2024 13:15

I'm not getting that from people over here. I think he's just really frustrated at how little he can get done. I'm just waiting for all the posters to go up, for the Euros, there was one espousing the success of Brexit!!

Are you in France?

visionahead · 17/06/2024 13:53

TellingHimToFloorIt · 17/06/2024 11:50

What does Farage have to do with it? And do you seriously believe that the Conservatives could steer the country through a war given how badly they've handled every other crisis they've faced (or, in the case of Brexit, engineered) and how worse off all of us are as a result?

I'm no fan of the Tories, and certainly not Boris, but I'm not sure many countries did brilliantly during Covid either. A few exceptions perhaps. The PPE was awful but I can also see how, when in a panic, contracts are struck to ensure supply. the party gate was terrible, yes.
Then the war straight after. Yes, Brexit, what a nightmare (I'm a Remainer).
Reform won't get any seats but if enough votes I wouldn't be surprised if he somehow weasels himself back into the Tories. God help us!

Half of the world's population going to the polls this year. Unprecedented! Acknowledge many were called for this or next year but does seem to be several that seems to go early rather than later.

OP posts:
Bobbotgegrinch · 17/06/2024 14:40

Sunak hardly called a snap election. We've known for 5 years that the election needed to be held by next January, and we've known for months that he was going to call it for "the second half of this year". He also gave 6 weeks warning of it, a perfectly normal campaigning period for our system. Nothing about this election is "snap"

What Macron has just done, thats a "snap" election.

ForFirmBiscuit · 17/06/2024 14:42

All of this could’ve been prevented if we didn’t sell our farm lands and factories to build more council houses

Bobbotgegrinch · 17/06/2024 14:42

Also, what settling in time is needed? Just because labour are in opposition doesn't mean they have no idea how government works. They already know all the civil servants involved, have been involved in drafting policies, laws. Most of them have worked on cross party committees for years. They'll be ready to dive right in as soon as the results are in.

TellingHimToFloorIt · 17/06/2024 17:11

visionahead · 17/06/2024 13:53

I'm no fan of the Tories, and certainly not Boris, but I'm not sure many countries did brilliantly during Covid either. A few exceptions perhaps. The PPE was awful but I can also see how, when in a panic, contracts are struck to ensure supply. the party gate was terrible, yes.
Then the war straight after. Yes, Brexit, what a nightmare (I'm a Remainer).
Reform won't get any seats but if enough votes I wouldn't be surprised if he somehow weasels himself back into the Tories. God help us!

Half of the world's population going to the polls this year. Unprecedented! Acknowledge many were called for this or next year but does seem to be several that seems to go early rather than later.

Panic is no excuse for giving multi-million pound contracts to their friends with zero experience or expertise in the area. None at all.

As for no other countries doing brilliantly, Partygate marked Britain out as uniquely and terribly disgraceful. This is not a government qualified to lead the country through another crisis; they're not qualified to take us through the weekend.

Labour won't take months to 'find their feet' and we know where the Tories' feet are: firmly under the table. A change in government is needed from every angle, but even more urgently so if more instability is imminent.

visionahead · 17/06/2024 20:45

TellingHimToFloorIt · 17/06/2024 17:11

Panic is no excuse for giving multi-million pound contracts to their friends with zero experience or expertise in the area. None at all.

As for no other countries doing brilliantly, Partygate marked Britain out as uniquely and terribly disgraceful. This is not a government qualified to lead the country through another crisis; they're not qualified to take us through the weekend.

Labour won't take months to 'find their feet' and we know where the Tories' feet are: firmly under the table. A change in government is needed from every angle, but even more urgently so if more instability is imminent.

The reason we have a Covid vaccine, to be fair, is partly due to Boris knowing Kate Bingham. Heavily criticised at the time, but that worked out pretty well, even if some of the others were pretty shocking.
But, Boris was Boris and he's a bit of a clown - he's not in government anymore though...
Just don't trust Angela Rayner - even though she has more personality than Keir and Sunak combined - to actually be particularly strategic, which is worrying for someone in her position.

OP posts:
TreadSoftlyOnMyDreams · 17/06/2024 21:05

This is the point of the civil service? Continuity?

DogInATent · 17/06/2024 21:09

Lots of other countries globally seem to have brought their elections forward to what had been expected late last year.

Which countries have brought their elections forward?

Not the UK, we're within the expected window for an election. Early within that window, but an election had to happen before the end of next January.

France, yes, that's the one snap election call.

Belgium, did get some mentions in the press and on social media after the French election call. But the Belgium position was entirely normal in their electoral cycle.

.
Half of the world's population going to the polls this year. Unprecedented!

The elections in India, USA, etc. aren't unprecedented, snap elections, or unprecedented. Stop talking rubbish.