State Pension

[JollyPollysjolly]

my Husband is sure that by the time we reach state pension age (me 45, him 49) that it will no longer exist - or maybe when we reach 100 ha! Anyone with any knowledge that can add to this idea so I can argue back?

Or asked to consider ‘assisted dying’ for our elderly parents and disabled children to cut NHS and social care costs?

As I understand it the period of low interest rates after the 2008 crash is part of the reason for the housing bubble. Now we have some homeowners who have the worst of both worlds, they have paid an inflated price for their property and now that interest rates have shifted towards the historical average the debt has become unaffordable. It's no surprise they hope that 2% is the norm to which we will return.

The 5% draw downrule of thumb has been adjusted down to 2-3% due to the cycle of crashes we have had.

A pp mentioned that life expectancy now only applies to those born now. That means those born in the 1960s getting close to state pension age won’t have the life expectancy of now, but the life expectancy of 1960s which the low 70s I think?

It isn’t true anyway. Life expectancy is age dependent. My life expectancy at birth was 72. I’m now 70 and it’s increased to 88. The older you get the higher it goes.

@blossomtoes Yes but it is a bit meaningless. Plenty of 70 year olds who will die within 5 years.

The age expectancy calculation at age 70 removes everyone in your birth year that has already died younger than age 70. Your birth year group haven’t had their life expectancy go up from 72 to 88; it is to be interpreted to mean that as you have survived to age 70, you are far more likely to make it to 88- as in live longer than the average age expectancy at birth.

Blossomtoes didn’t mention why your age expectancy goes up the older you get. It is because they don’t count everyone born the same year as you that has already died. It’s a survivor remaining life expectancy calculation.

Thanks 😂

@blossomtoes My father, mother and in laws all died in their seventies.

My parents’ combined ages when they died was 196 so I’m hoping to get more than another five year! 😉

@blossomtoes At a guess you come from a reasonably well off background?

At 67, both my parents are alive and kicking, and even in decent health, at 89 and 91, with their faculties and intellects intact. I'm not writing them off quite yet. Father's gp's both made 89, his mother the same age, and his father was 94. Mother's family are similar but not quite as long lived... about 85 on average.

Whilst poverty can reduce life expectancy @NoisySnail its not necessarily the case at all.
Many poor people of the 30s/40s/50s living in abject poverty lived into their 80s.
Maybe it was all the porridge and cabbage they ate !

Meanwhile the richer eating too many heavy foods, meat and no veg a few centuries ago suffered and died from poor diets.

Now processed foods and lack of exercise are reducing life expectancy. Round and round and round we go!

What makes you say that? My grandad was a miner so my dad certainly wasn’t. He grew up during the depression too.

Life expectancy is very strongly correlated with wealth/socio economic status at a population level, but on an individual level there are plenty of outliers.

E.g. my great grandad grew up in a workhouse (orphan) and lived to 99.

Thanks @BabaBarrio that's depressing 😩

“If you make it to 65…” being the key factor here as many people will not make it to 65. That means for everyone who makes it and has 18-20yrs of retirement, there will be those that don’t even live long enough to retire or die within a few years. That is why it is important to use life expectancy at birth for the birth year when making state pension age decisions that will affect anyone not born this year, but born 20+ years ago.