Britain’s economy will get worse forever

[ShottaSheriff]

https://novaramedia.com/2024/03/03/britains-economy-will-only-get-worse-forever-aaron-bastani-meets-gary-stevenson/

AIBU to say that: Unless something massively changes, wealth inequality will continue to destroy this country (and others around the globe). I fear for our children.

Poverty has explodes in the UK, the middle class is being eroded. Those in power, making the decision are the same people who benefit from widening the gap between rich and poor.

Gary Stevenson’s piece is really worth watching. It’s horrifying and obvious all at once and yet most people in this country are buying into the divisive narratives that apportion the blame for the decline in standards of living, of society, on anything and everything else except the rich elite.

We collectively need to educate ourselves and we need to do something.

There are definitely problems, we have relied on a low wage workforce, we need to create a more positive environment for entrepreneurship but thats not done by government intervention.

https://www.wipo.int/pressroom/en/articles/2023/article_0011.html

I agree with much of this. We are in a downward spiral because we are not growing; we need to offer more to the global economy. The economies which are successful look beyond their borders.

Sorry, but income inequality is not inherently a problem in my opinion as long as there is a reasonable opportunity for social mobility. As others have mentioned, the main challenge is poor growth, which is what generates opportunities for social mobility and is also necessary to fund increasing social obligations (nhs, state pension, etc.)

I 100% agree with you OP. Social mobility is infinitely harder than it used to be. Housing, austerity, wages stagnating, Covid, wars, all contribute. In the 80's/90's everyone who wanted to get on the housing ladder could do so, and usually before they started a family. You could move up from renting and council house ownership to ownership fairly easy if you wanted to. Now, 20 year olds will be having to choose between starting a family at the best time physiologically, or chancing infertility because they can't get to where they want to be before they are in their 30's, and childcare is then crippling.
The rich elitists and their share portfolios will always be laughing all the way to the bank.
I think Gary Stevenson is extremely honest and articulate Nd more people should listen to him and get a grip of that's happening.
With regard to the PP saying they wouldn't employ you due to your negativity, that isn't even relevant to the point you are making in your OP. I'm assuming they are young and haven't seen life as an older person and how social mobility has affected certain demographics over time, say the last 20-30 years.
Ffs even owning a dog is a luxury item these days and soon that too will be for the elite as the peasants left behind wont be able to afford insurance or vets bills.
I'm certainly no conspiracy theorist but observing the world economics and politics over my lifetime, the social divide has never looked more realistic or depressing, and the more I see the 'you will own nothing' / the Great Reset / WEF dialogue becomes increasingly logical.
Not one person I went to school with - even the less academic or SEN pupils, who maybe looked at a potential harder life ahead, have done badly in life: they wouldn't get anywhere near that if they were leaving school now.

I'm not doubting you.

Back in the early 80s my Economics teacher explained how , in most countries, other than extreme dictatorships, it was desirable to be a net exporter . Ie, you produced an awful lot ( steel, coal, electronics, mechanics , fashion etc,, )
It meant that the money came to our country to be invested and make profits that stayed in our country.

If we ever needed more imports than exports, then we were doomed.

Here we are, importing everything from China and we manufacture almost nothing.
We only assemble cars... we don't make them so the profits go to other countries.
Our private pensions are dictated by foreign investments, much of our fresh food is imported.

What do we actually manufacture?

And yet,judging by that other thread, if you don't want to work, because it worries you , then you shouldn't work?

How does our country ever gain?

I’m not sure planning a career is “becoming thatcher”, I’d describe it as common sense.

I think you misread…

we can't

too much lasting damage has been done to our public services and our economy with brexit, austerity, liz truss's little jolly with the budget, pandemic pandering of tory honchos by giving them billions to buy useless ppe. our days as a wealthy nation are gone

I didn’t say “becoming thatcher”, I said “becoming thatchers”. Read the post that I quoted. It has nothing to do with Margaret.

@ShelfShark bloom berg has an interesting article on its site claiming they aren't better off listing elsewhere either.

Ah sorry, it was late. Still stand by my point, people still make good money in the trades. It’s not all dire out there. I think the UK could do a whole lot better and would agree that we have become a low wage economy but I’m not convinced it’s as awful as it seems.

I think the move towards degree apprenticeships is a good one, no uni debt, getting paid and paying into a pension from 18. Probably a job waiting for you at the same company at the end of it if you do well. I think that is the direction we need to go in. Too many people doing worthless degrees and ending up working in a call centre.

We’re in such a bad way we can’t keep would-be immigrants out!!!
I think things are cyclical - we aren’t manufacturing but all that coal and steel being used to make stuff in China is destroying our planet so manufacturing and selling has its big downside. The end of human life.

I watched a programme about the super rich - you can’t tax them and take their money unless all other countries agree to too -and that ain’t going to happen.

That is exactly it.
So many people are not aware of how much money the people at the very top of the economic scale is holding. It is much more than your wildest dreams, many folds more than it used to be and many many many folds more than it is sustainable for the capitalist system to work.
There are many graphs around, but one example is attached.

Can we really make it in life with education, hard work and discipline if the average wage cannot buy you a house? Pa0y rent and childcare at the same time? If you cannot afford to live less than 60 min commute from your work? If your really good wage actually cannot pay for house, car, commute, childcare, food and entertaintment, then what?
I think you can work hard to get a good wage, but as individuals we are not in control of the general economics around us, so what that wage can ultimately buy us.
As a community, though, as a whole, citizens do hold a position to heavily influence changes in the system. But people need to be focused on this in mass and it does not look like they are there yet.

We’re at the bottom of the G7 growth league, and the only G7 economy that’s smaller than pre-Covid. You can look at individuals making good money in the trades, but ultimately the country’s economy is in a bad place.

You’re kind of illustrating OP’s point with this. I started on £35k + benefits as a new graduate in London a decade ago, and that wasn’t a high starting salary then, and money is worth less now. So yeah your opportunity is a bit shit.

@ShelfShark you've nailed it there. Individual choices or individual examples of people succeeding in spite of the current economic climate do not negate the fact that the economy is in an appalling state for all the reasons that the last few posters have highlighted. And the widening wealth gap can’t be ignored. There are people profiting significantly from the downward spiral and as the middle classes disappear, the assets become ever more concentrated in the pockets of the few.

Gary’s Economics makes these points really well and powerfully.

Gary’s Economics has been a revelation to me. He seems to be the only person who’s been asking where does the money go?
I don’t think he’s pessimistic so much as clear-sighted.

Loads of journalists have been asking this question for ages....but generally get pushed into a "conspiracy theory" box.

Or, if there is a whiff of being right wing, they get pilloried for that. People have been questioning this for at least 20 years. If you point out a bankrupt Labour council on MN, posters get angry.

Thanks OP. I will check on Gary's economics, I have not watched him before.
Other good source is Martin Lewis.

We should get macroeconomics taught in school. And the tax and revenue system too. I know now they do a bit of basic taxes in secondary, but still we need people with good basic skills in finance and economics.

I read a really interesting book that looks at the rise and fall of empires including the Dutch, British, American and now, potentially, the Chinese (rising).
It sought to explain why things are happening right now and compare them to history. Things like cost of living, income inequality, divisions in society and why some empires fall and are replaced by new ones. Essentially, old ones have labour wage increases, material price increases, goods price increases etc which make them less competitive and then a new empire is able to undercut them or build on what has already been established. The old ones build more and more debt to stand still and eventually it all collapses.
This is usually over decades and centuries though.

Link below if anyone fancies a read:
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail amzn.eu/d/fUqtImD

I agree with Gary, inequality matters. If our younger generations, including plenty who are professionals, spend over 50% of their income on housing, where do people think growth will come from? This country is a service-heavy economy. The super-rich who own income-generating assets won't spend any extra income as even they can only go on so many luxury holidays or own so many private jets. As the upper and middle classes tighten their belts, the very wealthy will not fill the gap of this lost spending but instead buy up more assets that those classes sell to free up money and hence drive up the price of assets which includes houses (but only in desirable areas).

If AI and robotics does become the job destroyer they fear then guess who benefits from it? It won't be you or me.

If our younger generations, including plenty who are professionals, spend over 50% of their income on housing, where do people think growth will come from?

This is solvable by building more housing. The Japanese have done it. It just takes political will to overcome NIMBY.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/opinion/editorials/tokyo-housing.html

And we're now the world’s fourth-largest exporter, moving up three places since 2021, jumping ahead of France and the Netherlands (both EU countries last time I looked).

Despite Brexit. But don't let the facts get in the way...

@MissConductUS I can’t read this article.

But the prospect of London turning into Tokyo, is one of the many reasons I left.

The Japanese government are offering people money to leave Tokyo now?

I’m sorry if I’m making assumptions about what your link says. Is it about overcrowding Tokyo and surrounding areas?

Just as overcrowding London and the local areas has not gone well, that sounds awful.

Whatever we do to prosper, we do have to accept that England is a small place.

And already very overcrowded. An endless pyramid scheme of over population, followed by generating more and more business, cannot be the answer for a small country.

Surely it’s more about addressing wage disparity and putting in things like rent controls?

as well as many other things. We are not short of money in this country. It’s been very questionably spent.

Erm…bad news…..

Yes, the UK did jump to being the 4th biggest exporter but almost entirely attributable to a massive (~1000%) increase in our gold exports.

The reason so much gold was being exported is because it’s seen as a safe investment. The sudden clamour for gold was a sign of a lack of confidence in our economy (and the wider world economy too).