To ask how the situation will evolve re Putin and Russia?

[Chocolatefrogs]

The war in Ukraine has been going for 2 years now and Putin’s main political opponent (Alexei Navalny) has been killed by the Russian government. Russia also still has international allies who will give their support to Putin (e.g. China, India, North Korea, Syria - and the USA, if Trump wins the election later this year). Not to forget that the Russian presidential elections are coming up next month and Putin will certainly win by a landslide.

I think this all gives Putin a big opportunity to win even more power and influence - as I’m sure we’re all aware.

Having said all of this, Putin is also getting old (he’s now 71), so he obviously doesn’t have much time left in power. If Putin gets ill or dies whilst in power, I’m sure one of his many allies will take over after being primed to do so for many years. And if Putin lives for a few more years, this obviously gives him a chance to get even more powerful and perhaps more reckless.

My question is - what is Putin capable of doing over the next few months and years and what is his ultimate plan?

On the back of this, I’d also be interested to find out if anyone has any recommendations of books/podcasts/documentaries I can watch to find out more about what Putin is actually trying to achieve. I regularly listen to Radio 4 and political podcasts, but haven’t read many books yet about Russian history and politics. I do want to know more about this as my knowledge is quite limited in this so far.

From my limited understanding so far, I’ve understood that he is hellbent on expanding Russian territory and therefore its power and influence, but I realise that this expansionism is very likely only a small part of what he wants to do.

I agree with this, OP. I feel very sad and worried about what’s happening in Russia and Ukraine, as I’m sure others do as well. I was recommended a book about Putin’s Russia while ago, called Nothing is true and everything is possible, by Peter Pomerantsev. I’m just about to start it actually - I think it will give a good overview of how the post-Soviet landscape and Putin’s rule have made Russia what it is today.

For podcasts, I’d recommend In Moscow’s Shadows by Mark Galeotti. He’s a respected Russia academic and these are interesting and accessible.

For a book, I’d recommend The Long Hangover by Shaun Walker (former Guardian correspondent in Moscow), which explains much of the long build-up to the war in Ukraine and how Putin has fixed on a vision of a glorious past to rally ordinary Russians.

If you want to find out more about how Putin has politicised historical memory in Russia, have a look at Dr Jade McGlynn’s work - she has written two books recently, one on the war and one on memory, and is quite active on podcasts, news broadcasts and so on.

In broader terms, Peter Pomerantsev is a good shout, as would be anything by Anne Appelbaum, Masha Gessen, Anna Arutanyan, or Edward Lucas. All of these academics and journalists will make their particular arguments, I wouldn’t ever rely on one source of info for Russia, but all will give you a different perspective.

Ukraine will go back to Russia. That's inevitable and the only way this ends.

This came out just four weeks ago and is receiving very good reviews. Martin Sixsmith is the guy who wrote 'Philomena' on which the film was based, he has a long and fine reputation in investigative journalism and this is not his first book on Russia, either. I haven't read it yet but I imagine it will go some way towards unpacking the answer to your question OP.
Putin and the Return of History: How the Kremlin Rekindled the Cold War eBook : Sixsmith, Martin: Amazon.co.uk: Books

The excellent course by Timothy Snyder https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLh9mgdi4rNewfxO7LhBoz_1Mx1MaO6sw_

Nonsense. Nothing is inevitable. Putin is mortal, the regime is finite, the prevailing factors are infinite and changeable. Like anything else we can speculate but we cannot actually predict with any certainty.

Second the recommendation for Mark Galeotti's In Moscow's Shadow podcast. Also excellent is Meduza's The Naked Pravda podcast moderated by Kevin Rothrock. For a slightly more academic approach try Brian Whitmore's The Power Vertical podcast. Worth checking in addition as often with good information are War on the Rocks and Brussels Sprouts (the latter focusing on the European perspective.)

(A) Russia goes on an indefinite war footing. Trump the Transactional, severs from NATO. Putin tools up at 1,000% per annum, morphing the Russian army into knife-wielding mercenaries. Russia explodes a couple of nuclear bombs in space to take out the satellites. Europe, relying heavily on AI and electronic warfare finds its drones, tanks, air defences and weapons systems inoperable. Too much time is instead spent arguing between states how to reduce emissions on warplanes and AFVs. Putin invades Europe which is outnumbered by 3:1 on real hand to hand fighting troops. When bombs and bullets run out the bayonet is the last weapon of resort. It was in WW1, the Iran/Iraq war and it returns again. Europeans are not used to fighting, in fact, guns are banned in most countries and the ability to mobilise a young army quickly is impossible, unlike the US where many families know how to shoot. This is 2028 and Romania, Moldova and the Balkans and Baltic states fall following an exodus of people into Western Europe. Turkey eventually also leaves NATO.

(B) Trump the Transactional comes to power, but rational elements within the political houses limit what he achieves following four further years of tenure. China baulks at conflict with the US and concentrates on its soft diplomacy and its New Silk Road programme. Economic growth is too elusive for China over the next few years to contemplate taking Taiwan militarily. Russia is held in a messy check economically, militarily and politically as the US supplies firepower under a new Lend Lease facility. As Russia bleeds out it slowly becomes a vassal state of China and eventually India. Meanwhile the major arms manufacturers in the US get to test a range of experimental equipment in Ukraine while billing that country and Europe for the privilege.

Three things are certain:

1. The next POTUS will be heavily supported by steroids to keep going.
2. Share values of leading defence manufacturers will rise.
3. Russia's long term position is weakened.

I agree, it is the only way to avoid a worse war and it will subdue his ego.

How will it subdue his ego? I think Putin’s ego will be given a huge boost if he gets Ukraine.

Of course it will! Give him an inch and he'll take a mile, give him Ukraine, and he'll be after Poland, the Baltic states, even Finland!

Putin just needs a big hug and for someone to tell him it’s all gonna be ok. Let him cry it out and back down.

Ukraine will not survive, it's a numbers game, they will eventually run out of troops. It's simply a matter of how long it takes. The issue isn't Ukraine, that's a done deal and nothing can stop it. The issue is what happens after it falls.

Russia will have demonstrated that it is a virtually untouchable war machine.

North Korea will have been emboldened by its new "special relationship" with the most powerful state in the world. And also, NK will have massively increased (thanks to Russian technology) it's nuclear capability. It will become a lethally dangerous rogue state.

There will be a defacto strategic alliance between Russia, China and NK.

The EU will disintegrate, indivdual member states will see how weak and ineffective the block has become, unable to take any action without complex diplomatic discussions or resolutions. The US will pull back, either because their presence will expose how weak they have become, or because they fear they will be marked as a target for the new trio-of-evil. That would be a fight even the good ol US of A would not be able to win.

Some very bad things are going to happen in the next few years.

@Hereyoume Russia will only win if the West stop arming Ukraine. The converse is true, Ukraine can drive Russia out of Ukraine if the West arms it.

Your confidence in Russia does not match the reality. The second or third largest and most powerful army in the world has come to a grinding halt. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia without the West, but Russia is certainly not defeating Ukraine. In fact a few months into its SMO it had to withdraw from certain areas because it was spread too thinly.

Russia has become poorer under Putin and that will continue. The country with the world's greatest natural resources should by now be well on the way to economic might after nearly 40 years, but instead most of its wealth has been transferred abroad.

I am confident the Ukrainians don’t share that view 😐

What absolute nonsense. Winning never subdued anyone’s ego least of all Putin’s.
If Putin wins, Moldova and the Baltic states are next and the war gets infinitely worse.

The West have been arming Ukraine for the past two years and Russia is still gaining ground.

Ukraine has lost significant numbers of fighters and unlike Russia, cannot replace them fast enough to make up for losses. Only this weekend there was a report from the Ukraine front lines that most combat units were at 60% of their strength with no reinforcements in sight.

The West knows it's a done fight and are pulling back from arming Ukraine.

I hope you are right, that my confidence in Russia is misplaced.

Ah, have you learn nothing?

Collective West was appetising Putin for long enough. Ukraine is the effect.

I think everyone will slowly pull away with the support of arms and such and that will end up meaning Ukraine will no longer exist as such.

What He does at that point could
go either way. He could sit for a year or two to build up troops then invade further or just keep invading.

But it’s certainly feeling that the fight to help is dead/dying. The help was given expecting a pretty fast outcome I think not dragging on two years down the line. They just changed the rules on some fleeing Ukraine this week also so now you can’t sponsor even your own family coming unless you are a citizen/settled status etc

The news isn’t exactly popping it high up, which means it’s not getting the clicks as the public is losing interest, which in turn means governments can lose interest in helping as much without getting push back from
their citizens.

There’s also the fear of giving away too much for him to ultimately win and then be left with nothing to defend one’s own country too.

If this happens Russia will conscript Ukrainians, use Ukrainian infrastructure and Black Sea ports, and attack the next state. Moldova? Georgia? Baltics? Poland? This is how empires expand - they use all the resources of the colonies to get even more land.

I hugely recommend everyone to read Serhii Plokhy https://www.amazon.co.uk/Russo-Ukrainian-War-bestselling-author-Chernobyl/dp/1802061789?source=ps-sl-shoppingads-lpcontext&ref_=fplfs&psc=1&smid=A3P5ROKL5A1OLE.

This is how empires expand - they use all the resources of the colonies to get even more land.

A simple yet good point.

Really good points and lots of resources and info for me to read through and think about. Thanks so much, everyone.

Trump will visit him in the Kremlin and carry Putin up the stairs Gone With The Wind Style. They will spend a passionate night together and Putin will forget all his warmongering ways and him and Trump will retire together in Putin's villa thing that he has and live happily ever after......

Love always wins 💞😘💒

I was recommended a book about Putin’s Russia while ago, called Nothing is true and everything is possible, by Peter Pomerantsev

It's fascinating, disturbing, very well written and absolutely brilliant.