To wonder if the Sep-25 reception cohort will skew towards summer babies?

[SparklyRainbowDinosaur]

Just musing really as my daughter is an August 2021 baby so will start school Sep-25 as one of the youngest. A few people have asked me if I was planning to defer her.

I'm a bit of a data nerd and I've read stats about the birth rate dropping between Nov-20 and Mar-21 and then recovering again. So it's got me wondering whether my daughter will be less 'young' in her year than other cohorts?

Also wondering if there would be an impact on school subscriptions as our prefered primary is sometimes oversubscribed.

Would love to discuss with any other statistics enthusiasts if any out there 🤣

Completely missed out saying the fact that this would be due to Covid. Doh!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2021

Here's some data to mull over. Can't see births by month, yet, though.

Thanks @menopausalmare !

https://theconversation.com/effect-of-lockdowns-on-birth-rates-in-the-uk-181472 this is what I was reading.

Have you looked at your local authority's school place planning policy? Ours is basically a village by village analysis of birth rates for the last 11 years. I consider myself a pretty hardy stats nerd, and obsessed either school admissions, but I couldn't get to the end of it!

There will always be weird anecdotes or local clusters though. My ds is at a 15 child entry school and I already know of 8 sibling applicants in my dds year (will be 2026).

My daughter is a September 2020 baby, so will be in the same year! The hospital was super busy when she was born so on a purely anecdotal basis, and in my area (north-west) it didn't feel like 2025 will skew young.

My word.

I've wondered similarly about my youngest who was born July 2020 and will be the eldest in her class, the younger half of her class would have been conceived from March 2020 onwards and so I'm assuming her year will skew a little older than the norm.

However...

A) that will apply nationally but individual class sizes are small enough that there's no guarantee it will apply in your class.

B) I wouldn't allow national trends to influence decisions for an individual child.

Personally if I were in England there's no way I'd be sending a child to primary school within weeks of turning 4. I'd defer.

My thinking was along the lines of: A 'normal' amount of Sep-Nov 2020 babies (conceived pre lockdown like @PurpleChrayn ). Then perhaps fewer born between Dec 2020 and Feb 21 due to the onset of lockdown and people delaying TTC (ourselves included). And then a higher number born spring 2021 onwards after the first lock down as the birth rates recover, those that delayed resuming ttc resulting in a 'surge' of spring and summer babies.

It may prove untrue when she starts but I'm interested none the less!

in the UK your daughter would be left in her year group - you don’t get a choice.
I would focus on encouraging her confidence and play - choose a nursery or school that you like too.

It’s completely unpredictable IMO. My DDs year and the one immediately above that had “normal” spreads. The one immediately below has a huge majority of kids born June-August, and my DSs year below that is very much skewed Sept-Dec (anyone born January is the younger half of that year).

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/summer-born-children-school-admission/summer-born-children-starting-school-advice-for-parents

You do get a choice and can choose to defer school entry and have your child join the year below instead, so an August born child would join reception a year late and become the eldest child in that year group rather than the youngest in their expected year group.

One of mine was summer born and if deferment had been allowed when they were that age I absolutely would have gone for it.

You can also defer for the youngest quarter in NI, so April, May and June births.

I've got an August 2021 baby too. I think it's definitely a possibility the birthdays might be skewed towards the beginning and end of the school year with fewer in the middle.

In practice though it might be barely noticeable as in a class the sample might not be big enough for it to make much difference.

That’s not true. You absolutely can apply to defer entry until the next year when a summer baby!