I think it's multifactorial:
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Increase in prevalence related to rising average age of parents at conception, and possibly also increased survival of moderate and extreme prematurity
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Possibly a role for unprecedented environmental pollutants eg microplastics on the developing brain in utero/infancy, but far from proven and could be a complete red herring. Certainly if there is any environmental effect the evidence would suggest it is moderated heavily by genetic predisposition
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An increase in presenting symptoms/concerns because of the ways in which the educational and social context is more challenging for all children, and perhaps particularly those with SEN
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An increase in awareness and diagnosis is probably the largest part of it
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Increased visibility due to decreased institutionalisation and increased mainstreaming of all children
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Decreased support for / increased pressures on both schools and families
Personally I think we are long overdue massive societal and particularly educational reform to enable those with SEN to become as functional and content adults as possible. We do want an integrated society but I can't help but feel mainstreaming has had the unintended consequence of trying to force neurodiverse children with very spiky profiles to become generalists in school environments which are inherently toxic for them. I think of my brother's life story:
- Early diagnosis of what was then called "Asperger's" based on delayed speech and typical behaviours of autism
- Managed state primary and just about managed with lots of SEN support (feel sadly that the support he received is far less available to children with SEN now)
- Fell to bits in secondary, with severe bullying, suicidal
- Left secondary to go to local authority funded specialist school for autism (absolutely unheard of / impossible now for a relatively "high functioning" autistic child but absolutely what my brother needed to literally stay alive I think)
- Much much advocacy to get access to GCSEs, doing just his subject interests. Despite limited number of GSCEs, special dispensation to access A levels and later university (is this possible for autistic young people now??)
- Entered skilled employment but then left after a few years - employer unable/unwilling to make adaptations for autism.
- Ongoing /lifelong impact of bullying and negative messages on self esteem. Extreme social anxiety and low ability to function.
- Remains one of the most extremely intelligent and capable people I know, within his narrow fields of interest/specialism. But will always need support (even if fairly light touch) with getting along in life. Effectively unable to work, within the society we live in.
My brother deserves to be part of society but the effects of mainstreaming nearly destroyed him and will never leave him. And he faces potentially an impoverished future having been able to contribute minimally despite his potential.
I just do think what a waste. In the right kind of education system and broader society, that could support autistic people like my brother to reach their extremely high potential in narrow areas of brilliance, but support / protect them in the many significant areas of difficulty, how much could be gained?
I genuinely believe that the Einsteins of this world are largely autistic. We need amazing, innovative, different minds now more than at any other point in history. (And am aware that's not all autistic people of course but some like my brother do fit this extreme spiky profile, but at the same time are significantly disabled by autism). But how far would Einstein have gotten in mainstream UK education in 2025?
Personally I think mainstreaming is failing many neurodiverse children and we do need specialist schools for an entire spectrum of needs that support them academically but without forcing them into being generalists (current mainstream school model is to make everyone a generalist). But perhaps if mainstream were different - more flexible, less stressful?
Then we need the flexibility in higher education and employment that says no-one cares you don't have a English language GSCE, or if you can't look someone in the eye, or ever attend an interview, or you need to live with your mum, or you actually are only awake on an insane irregular schedule - you can study and work as a super specialist in a narrow area of interest. Funding STEM would probably help (though aware it's not STEM for all with autism it does seem to be a fair generalisation for many!)
Anyway just my ramblings.