Results like these at a general election would mean Tory annihilation

[noblegiraffe]

Says a BBC headline this morning.

Anyone else stockpiling popcorn?

It’s also the apathy that’s it’s a foregone conclusion that has lost Labour its lead before. It’s also what caused Brexit. So I wouldn’t be counting chickens just yet, history is a good crystal ball. By all means carry on with the MN echo chamber though. It doesn’t change anything. It also doesn’t change that they will be a 1 term government unless they sort their shit out.

I think labour have made it clear this week they are keeping working and not assuming it's in the bag.

@Princessandthepea0 could you tell us a year out from which GE Labour had a lead of 20 points translating to over a 100 seat majority in parliament that they then lost.

Thank you.

Kinnock is an example. Although not the huge predicted majority. Brexit was a blinding example. It was predicted a huge remain landslide. Left wing voters stayed home - done deal. Didn’t work out. Are you aware it’s patronising views like yours which drive people away from the left. Carry on in your echo chamber. It changes nothing. Many people are not voting for Labour when they would usually. That will lead to a 1 term government - especially when there is no money to wave a magic wand. Labour need to be pulling list votes back permanently. They won’t have a chance to do anything. You carry on.

"Labour getting in because people have become lacklustre about voting isn’t a good thing. "

So any GE with a Labour win needs to reflect 1997?
Did you apply the same standards to the Conservatives wins of 2010, 2015, 2017 or 2019. Of course you didn't.

The fastest way to check everyone's hypotheses will be to call a GE
and get on with it. I'd vote for that.

Brexit was a blinding example. It was predicted a huge remain landslide

No it wasn't. The opinion polls in the run up predicted that it would be close win for Remain, not a landslide.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinionpolling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

I know you are in desperate denial, but 2024 is not going to be a repeat of 1987. As shown here, the opinion polls broadly predicted a Tory win. Nothing like the current polls.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1987_United_Kingdom_general_election

@Princessandthepea0 I think you have some things back to front. It's already been pointed out on this thread that the Electoral Calculus aggregate poll accurately predicted 7 out of the last 8 elections. Saying they're likely to be wrong this time is just wishful thinking.

And yes, Labour has a mountain to climb to repair the damage done by the Tories, but it isn't Labour who need to win back lost voters. They're on the way to doing that already. It's actually the Tories who will need to win back lost voters after a GE - the moderate ones, the sane ones, the ones who don't tolerate corruption, the ones who care about the environment. The Tories need to restore sanity and move back to the centre ground. I suspect that this will take longer than one parliament given the state of the current membership and the current crop of active politicians.

Desperate denial of what? I don’t vote Tory.

Quite honestly it makes no difference how you vote, your continual anti Labour rhetoric speaks volumes.

I really want to know how you do vote. Genuine curiosity as you seem so displeased with everyone.

Without the buildings that PFI built, those books and drugs would be outside in the rain.

My point is in the context of 1.2 trillion of Govt spending, 2bn is very very little.

Pls don't go on about pension funds, they invest widely, inc over seas and as anyone approaching retirement has found to their cost, gilts! who has made the UKs gilt prices plunge more than almost anyone else's? the Tories voting in Liz Truss.
Japan Germany France and Spain have much lower yield prices, which is pretty much long term Govt borrowing costs, money poured away due to our mismanagement of the economy, makes PFI look like a positive bargain.

When was the last time Blackrock came out for Labour?

This country is crying out for investment, much will have to be public but a great deal will also be private and atm every country in Europe is chasing inward investment, unfortunately, much that comes to the UK is in the form of buy outs, that needs to change, which Labour will do.

Excellent post.

I agree with every word.

Its patronising to ask for evidence for statements made?

I'm confused.

Nope, but you enjoy your Labour government 😂 I can’t wait to see that shit show.

Thanks. I can't wait either. The shit show is about to end.

It will be a shitshow because of what is being inherited by any government. If Labour do get in, by 2029 I cannot see things getting any better economically. It’s like trying to turn a heavy tanker round at full speed in the stormiest of seas.

The rest of this decade will be characterised by high interest rates, high inflation, the continuation of Russian aggression against Europe, a real reduction in asset values including uk housing with a strong probability of a conventional war between the US and China.

The weight of all these will make it very difficult for Labour to show anything positive by 2029 but the electorate, driven by fake internet news, will act without understanding.

None of us imagine it is going to be sun lit uplands when the Tories are kicked out. It is going to be a long, hard and painful slog to put right 13 years of cruelty, incompetence and corruption. At least we won't have to witness bigotry from the Cabinet on a daily basis.

Denial that Labour are going to win the GE.

I was chatting with my 20's nieces and they're so idealistic... or is it naive?

What is wrong with ideals, hope for cahnge? Better surely than apathy.

The youth (and women) came out to vote for change in Poland and that is what they will be getting.

I am way older than 20 and remain an idealist.

Same. I mean, right wingers are always telling us that if we don't strive for what we want, we won't get it, right? So here we are, striving.

I fear @Revenants has called the likely future.

They missed the part where post GE the Tories argued amongst themselves for several years with the NatCs coming out on top and the party continuing to be utterly irrelevant.

And, while I love the bright eyed idealism of the very young, it eventually dawns on most people that Dr Pangloss was just wrong.

We're already well past the point where anyone has any control over national politics, because global media, politics, finance, economics and multi-culturalism makes everything that happens everybody's business. Like Israel v Palestine. Noisy minorities slugging out medieval religious convictions on the streets from Birmingham to Beirut via Berlin. All equally deluded and to blame. IMHO, obviously.