To think a house price crash is definitely happening

[JudesBiggestFan]

I'm seeing house prices drop down and down before my eyes.
We
sold our house at 30,000 less than asking a couple of months ago but the chain has now fallen through. Three months ago our buyers sold, it fell through, they relisted two weeks ago at 20 grand less - so 275000 instead of 295000 and one viewing, no offers so far.
So we're all on hold, but I know they now won't sell at that price as first time buyers in this area just can't afford that. Every day I am seeing houses on Right Move that are hanging around for months or being reduced again and again.
I feel like the market hasn't caught up with interest rates...people just don't have the cash needed for current house prices and high interest rates on top but sellers are reluctant to reduce. Feel really stuck - we need to move for work reasons but the market is the slowest and worst I've known. Is it the same everywhere?

So you didn`t sell a year ago when good advice was to drop the price, now you are going to be chasing the market down because you ignored that advice?

"My house on a council estate is still steadily going up in value every month."

I am finding that hard to believe with the recent rise in borrowing costs, can you link to the general area so we can take a look with https://www.propertylog.net/

The area I live trend from Rightmove stats.

Can`t see the graph very well, what does it show?

Did you even read the links before jumping to correct me? SW dropped 20% last October, 16% year before, 26% year before that. I'd say that's a trend.
Please remember that this is the source of the data in the article you linked. It's becoming ever clearer that you haven't a clue what you're talking about.

It’s clear for me. Screen shot and zoom in if struggling

@Oliotya If you are referring to the southwest of the UK, property prices have definitely NOT declined by 16-20% annually in the last three years, or even in the last three quarters. They are down a bit, and stuff is taking longer to sell, but that's the froth coming off the Covid/stamp duty frenzy in 2021. Try offering that much under asking prices, and you'll be invited to sling your hook.

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/South-East-property-transactions.html This one displays better.

I'm not referring to house prices. Again, read the thread before jumping to correct people please.

https://www.plumplot.co.uk/South-West-property-transactions.html

Average rents in the SW are massively influenced by the season. There are more available after the summer and until Easter. Holiday lets are often let for the winter.

Locally, a huge housing development has ceased building.

Houses are being reduced, but still not moving.

Not much selling at all.

Houses bought during the 2021 summer madness are now coming up for sale at ridiculous prices (summer 2021)

I think by Q4 next year things could look pretty bleak tbh

Well, yeah... if you read the quote history you'll see that was pretty much my point.

Not using that link. I bought my house for around 150k (asking price 145k). Same house type on the same estate has recently sold for 166k, 188k, 150k, 180k and 145k. The higher sales were more recent (less than 2 months) than the lower ones.

Price trends round us seem to be driven by house prices. Family homes i.e nice detached on a private estate are still slowly rising, semi's seem to have peak but aren't falling however the bottom end of the market that appeals to first time buyers or landlords seems to be in a free fall. We are considering selling and the estate agent said if we are happy to break the chain like our last move it will go quickly. The issue seems to be chains breaking so properties come back on cheaper for a quick sale.

A managed house price fall is required.

Not everywhere. We’ve been offered unsolicited offers for our house by estate agents - approx 300k more than what we paid when we bought it during covid.

LOL, great thread.

There will not be a crash. That’s tabloid alarmism.

Prices have fallen in some areas but are still increasing in others. There is not one story across the whole of the UK. It is still a good investment to buy the right property, in the right place, for long-term gains.

UK residential mortgage rates have dropped a little too.

It is normal for prices to fall and rise. Nothing every has a continual upwards trajectory.

Until recently prices have not fallen for 20 years (due to cheap debt too readily available to anyone with a pulse) there are plenty of people alive who have absolutely no concept of a recession, interest rate rises (well they have that now) or a proper house price crash (prices were heading for 20% down in 2007 when the PTB stepped in with their global monetary experiment that will turn out to have been one of the biggest financial mistakes in history - for ordinary people)

There have been price fluctuations in the past 20 years. The overall trajectory is upwards but it isn’t a straight line.

People have forgotten that the low interest rates of recent years are an anomaly. Average mortgage interest rates over the past 50 years have been closer to 7%. (Not at work and it’s gone midnight where I am so don’t have exact figures to hand.)

The point is that there isn’t a “crash”. Such claims are just unhelpful scaremongering.

I live in a market town in the south east which went nuts in COVID.

Nice detached 4 bed houses are now £1.5/1.6 Million.

I look at Rightmove a lot and have noticed the following:-

1. Top end properties seem to be selling again £2 Million plus.
2. The mid range is stagnant. Prices dropping nothing really selling.

1. Anecdotally building work is slowing down (presumably because people aren't taking equity out when they remortgage).

1. A fair proportion of houses that don't sell are rented out. Sellers obviously can't bring themselves to drop the price.

I work in property and we have not had any new build reservations for about 2 months now.

The interest being charged in development finance is about 11.25% so the land slide is slowing which in time will lead to lower supply.

7% is about average, I thought it was nearer 5% but a poster here or at MSE pointed out that it was 7%. Telling a 20 year old or even a 30 year old that low interest rates were an "anomaly" is like telling a teenager in the early 80s that Boy George would be doing panto in 2023, they dont have a reference point, they can`t compute it, that is where the bankers make their score, sheep (especially young sheep) not being able to understand the historical yield curve.

Historically, the old rule about lending for mortgage in building societies was 3: 6: 3. It meant you took savings deposits at 3%, lent it at 6% and were out playing golf at 3 pm, confident that all was under contol. The numbers have tightened up, but the principle is the same. Never kid yourself that your advisor has your personal interests at heart. S/He has a target to meet.

We're seeing similar percentage reductions here...but these are houses that would have been much less pre covid. Prices shot up by 25% or even more between early 2020 and late 2021. So a 7% drop now still leaves them much more expensive than they were.