Aibu to think the weather reports should all be pretty similar?

[Guiltridden12345]

Just that. We are going on holiday somewhere hot. We are looking at reports mainly because it’s so awful here and we are excited. Met office says for the next few days 25 29 29 28. Bbc weather says 30 31 31 30. That’s quite different esp the 25 or 30 predictions for tomorrow. I find this all the time here. I’ll say to take a jacket as it’s going to rain and my daughter will say it’s not. Two differing reports.what’s going on with the meteorologists?

Meteorology is not an exact science. It is making predictions based on available data, and people are going to interpret that data differently. Then when you have made the prediction the data will have changed.

Tbh, it’s not going to make much difference to you whether it’s 25 degrees or 30 degrees when you are on holiday, unless you are doing strenuous activities. And sometimes you get caught out in the rain That’s just the way it is in the UK!

Met office and BBC weather predictions are often different around here too. Met office is usually the most accurate

Just interested to know why/how they can be so different: I understand it’s not exact but they are presumably interpreting the same data? And 25 and 30 degrees feel very different - I could (just about)run, sightsee, do an activity in 25 degrees, in 30 degrees it’s a sun bed and shade, it’s just too hot for me to do much more. So I’m interested in weather so we can plan stuff for the cooler days.

They are just making predictions using models. If it was that easy to predict the future using models then everyone would always win at playing the stock market or gambling. People in these fields have access to all the same data too but interpret it differently.

I find Met office least accurate

They always under or over predict temperatures. Usually by about 6 degrees. So difference between 18 and 24. I always fill in the feedback thing.

It makes no difference. They continue to predict it wrong.

Meteorologist here. The Met Office and BBCs app/web are driven automatically by data for the symbols/temperatures aspects. They use different models, the Met Office uses its own, the BBC an American model. That accounts for the difference in this case.

Ooh an expert!! Do you mind if I ask which model is the most accurate? And if it is, why others use a different model?

I used to travel a fair bit and whilst the BBC output was OK as snapshot it could quite often be adrift most especially on temperatures.

More recently where I live now (outside UK, mainland Europe) the BBC app has produced temperatures that have tended to be a couple of degrees or more adrift (and funnily enough very recently always higher) than the values in the forecasts produced by our local national agency.

Most of the time the more locally produced forecast turns out to be the more accurate.

I know the days of having forecasters dotted around at local level has mainly gone, a lot of forecasting is joined up across nations these days and there probably aren't that many models but TBH I think it you're going on hols it's always worth trying to find a source for forecasts published by the local agency.

That’s a really good idea, go local!