What the press do to sell theirs newspapers..... (related to house prices)

[Poochypaws]

Headline in telegraph today. "Britain’s house price crash ‘will be the worst in the world" said in big bold dramatic letters of course. I read it and the details says "Prices are forecast to plunge by 11pc compared with their peak in 2022"

So I bought my current house in 2019. It has according to estimates gone up by about 20%. If it falls by 11% it will still be 9% more than I bought it for. Hardly a huge price crash.
Now I know for people who bought last year might dip into negative equity a bit and hopefully they will just sit it out and eventually it will come good again in a few years.

So are the papers overdramatic or am I underestimating how many people are going to go into negative equity or not be able to pay their mortgages with the rates rise.

I'm reasonable - yes there's going to be a dip and we're all going to be a bit more skint but honestly we've been here loads of times and it all irons out

I'm unreasonable - Yes it's going to be bad. Landlords will increase rents to cover increased mortgages so renters will be skint, mortgage payers will have their houses repossessed

I'm not completely dense. In 2009 I sold a house i bought in 2007 (getting divorced) and made a painful loss. However I bought again in 2014 and made it back when I sold in 2019.

Thoughts??

Where are you getting your estimates from, is it from estate agents or online?
Online estimated valuations, certainly in this area, are wildly optimistic compared to EA valuations and sold prices. Those that choose to price optimistically are still sat on the market now here, even after being reduced twice.

Thought are

• individual houses will not exactly follow the trend - some will hold their value better, others may drop further (especially if your circumstances mean you have to sell, meaning you must take whatever you are offered).
• your maths is a bit off. You'll not be still making 9%, but 6.8% (eg - you bought for £500k, goes up 20% means peak notional price was £600k, but if that higher price falls by 11% the price becomes £534k. £34K is 6.8% of the initial £500k)