To think the tories want a housing crash now

[Seagullsbythesea]

All the rhetoric around interest rates has suddenly changed- lots of papers quoting Hunt saying he’ll risk a recession to get inflation under control- lots of papers saying we might see 6 percent by the end of the year.

Seems like they actually WANT a housing crash now- why now?

My friend’s mortgage has just gone up £500 a month.

I dont think they’ll want that, as their target electorate generally own houses.

i think they might drop off a bit but there won’t be a crash

There's never a crash in something when it's in short supply. Too few houses, prices start falling because this imaginary crash and those that can snap them up, so prices rise again.

Starmer will say anything to get the popular vote. Give over. If I was him I’d be saying it too. Doesn’t mean he can fix it. Lol.

There won’t be a housing crash. There absolutely won’t. What might happen is property prices will no longer rise as much or as quickly as they have done previously but there won’t be a crash.

Prices are already going down. The land registry figures have finally been released and the average selling prices have been going down for the past 5 months.

There's no more "help to buy" interest rates are not going back down and the government has stopped printing money. The tories simply cant prop up the market anymore.

1.4 million mortgages are coming to the end of their fixed rate this year. It's going to be expensive.

The moronic stupidity of renters (and it IS only renters) who beg for a "housing crash" amazes me.

Observing that the conditions are right for a house price crash isn't the same as begging for it.

Plenty of people who own property believe it's going to happen, plenty of people who rent don't believe it.

Time will tell, but land registry figures indicate prices are already going down.

Pop the daily mail down. Your talking rubbish and are frankly offensive.

most renters know a housing crash is not a good thing. Prices need to adjust in one way or another what we have now is not sustainable

The moronic stupidity of renters (and it IS only renters) who beg for a "housing crash" amazes me

Everyone should have the right to a safe, secure, affordable home - being nasty about renters isn’t fair

Much as people might hope, there won't be a crash on the horizon. There may be some stagnation and some repossessions for the vultures to mop up, but while house supply remains limited house prices will remain high.

If the Tories wanted to cause a house price crash they would have spent their time training an army of skilled labour and building new houses at a rate of knots.

The reason Hunt said that was to calm the City.

This is the thing that will lose them the election. A lot of their usual vote will be hammered by hundreds more a month. People don't forget that in a hurry each month.

People hoping for a house price crash should look at what happened in Ireland a few decades ago. Prices crashed by 50%! The banks were only giving out mortgages to people who had huge deposits, so a lot of rich people got bargain houses, ordinary people without deep pockets still couldn't buy anything! A lot of people lost their houses, there were a lot of suicides of people who had overborrowed. It was a terrible time! And house prices have rocketed again there, so ordinary people are still struggling to buy. Be careful what you wish for.

Higher interest rates means people can't afford to borrow as much money, if they're borrowing less, they're paying less. No matter how much people "want" something, if they can't afford it they can't buy it. There's no demand without affordability.

It's amazing how many people who are anti socialism believe that the government cares, and will stop people from being homeless.

House price crashes don't cause people to lose their homes. High interest rates, recessions and job loses cause that, which then causes the crash.

If the housing market crashes the tories are done for a generation. There will be lots of homeless people, and thanks to thatchers brilliant ideas, leaving very little social housing left, where are people/families going to go? Everything will go tits up in a big way if that happens. I completely agree house prices need to come down. But whichever government is in charge is going to have to be prepared to house a LOT of people and be able to get the social housing to do it. On the other hand, both my parents are baby boomers... approaching if not already in their 70s.... the biggest generation alive... so when they start leaving their houses in big numbers do we not think there will be excess housing available? So that could be when the bubble starts to burst....

By the way, to those predicting a crash, how do you square this with net migration of over a half a million a year, soon to be a round a million a year?

I honestly don’t know. My thinking is that the housing situation is much more secure now then it was in the 80s/90s crash ( which was catastrophic for many) because we have had low rates for a long time which has given many the chance to establish a large chunk of equity in their homes - they are not on high LTVs any more.

However, we do have a cohort of the £9000 a year student loans who are now in the market, interest rates are stabilising from an incredible low, and a lot of young people are deciding not to play a game they feel won’t benefit them.

Btl has lost some of its appeal due to the energy conditions that will come in meaning those with large,cheap mortgages where they are relying on selling to make their money, won’t have the money now to do properties up so will get rid of some instead. The secure landlords don’t deal with extremes either way and will keep a steady base for their tenants at a reasonable cost allowing tenants to manage, and their circumstances might change so that they can buy.

I desperately want to buy but am at low end of London market as have low deposit and only fixed term contract. My rent is £900 a month.

I watch rightmove obsessively and I would say that there has been a steady shift in the last two years I’m 1/2 bed flats in zone 3. Where once they would be priced at £250,000 - £300,000 they shifted to £225,000 - 180,000. Now they are appearing at 175,000 -140,000.

I would say there is a distinction in some of them in the types of property they are - some are self contained flats in period properties in a quieter street where as some are new build flats closer to main roads but I am not seeing the range of discrepancy that was there before ( ie they are coming closer together in price range).

A lot of zone 3 has traditionally been residential. Many of the people here know what it is like to live and work in these areas and know the housing stock well. I think many are observing from the sidelines.

NB to the poster who said anyone could get on the housing ladder and it was their fault if they didn’t hasn’t taken into account real life things that happen - job losses, family changes, disabilities that appear. It’s not always so straightforward.

So whether they want a housing market crash will depend completely on whether it makes them richer. I believe a lot of tories, and their backers, are heavily invested in property, so it's unfathomable that they'll do anything to deliberately crash that markert right now.

What if a crash enables such people with spare capital to snap up more property at a bargain price?

Wages have stagnated for years but low interest rates masked this & of course asset inflation made some a lot of money. Not much manoeuvre room left

The moronic stupidity of renters (and it IS only renters) who beg for a "housing crash" amazes me.

The moronic stupidity of someone who typed the above post...

People should be paid a fair salary. How are we in a situation where a couple both working full time can't afford to buy a property?

yes it's ridiculous that's salaries haven't really grown but yet tax burden is so high.

A house price ‘crash’ would be a very good thing, particularly for the southern half of England. Property prices have become ridiculously inflated and the correlation with average earnings has been blown apart. Millions of young people now have no realistic hope of ever owning their own home.

None of that means I think a crash will actually happen though. The gap between supply & demand is simply too great, caused by the government’s inability to either build enough new houses to boost supply, or to tackle uncontrolled mass immigration to limit demand.

I also thought it was economical good sense to have people paying too much if their income on mortgages as then they don’t circulate money in the wider economy. So, instead of going out for a meal to a restaurant that provides employment, keeps a supplier going, delivery drivers, unusual work hours employees who are all brought into the tax bracket, those mortgages eat at home. This has a huge knock on effect in the U.K. as we have hotels that need guests, theatre tickets to sell, clothes for occasions to be bought - all these secondary industries. Those with lots of money will keep patronising their industries but what about the working/middle class end of pubs, shops, communities?

I think prices have more to do with supply and demand rather than interest rates

• bad sense not good!

As the pound drops in value, foreign investors will fill the gaps. Buy to rent out, move capital abroad, plenty of advantages for those in, for example, China.
Look at Canada and NZ.