It's not £3billion, it's £2.3 billion.
It's a bit of a saga. Last July, after the heads had finalised their budgets for September, the government unexpectedly announced that teachers would be getting a 5% pay rise in September. Headteachers had planned for about 3% as that was what the government had previously suggested.
There was to be no new funding for this 5% rise, so headteachers had to suddenly adjust their budgets to account for it. Planned building projects were cancelled, IT equipment not ordered, support staff hours cut or made redundant.
In the meantime, inflation is going insane. Energy prices are going insane. Schools are going into deficit. Most of them are running out of money and the newspapers are printing stories like this:
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/oct/22/exclusive-90-of-uk-schools-will-go-bust-next-year-heads-warn
So, in the Autumn statement in Nov 2022, heads are rather relieved to hear that there will be an additional £2.3 billion for schools.
Catch - they won't be getting it till September 2023. It will do nothing to fill the current deficits. But maybe next year they could do those urgent building works, buy that IT equipment, hire a librarian. Or just stay afloat. There is a lot of discontent on twitter about how the money is needed NOW, not in the future.
Fast-forward to present day. Gillian Keegan is offering a 4.5% pay rise to teachers for next year. 0.5% of this will be paid for with new money. The other 4% is not new money. It is supposed to come out of the £2.3 billion that was promised back in November 2022.
But that £2.3 billion was awarded because budgets were in a terrible state last year, not because they thought they wanted to give teachers a particular pay rise next year. It's double counting. It's money that heads desperately needed for other things. The DfE were looking on it as 'spare money', when it very much isn't.
Even with all that, the DfE admit that schools would only be able to afford the 4.5% next year on average. So some schools would be able to, if their finances were already ok. Schools with holes in the budget won't. Schools which have a large number of support staff (e.g. special schools) definitely won't be able to afford it because the DfE calculations about what to do with the £2.3 billion also include paying for a support staff pay rise, which only works if you have the average number of TAs.
So the DfE are telling heads that it's affordable because their rough spreadsheet which has £2.3 billion as 'spare cash' looks fine. Heads are looking at their own finances and are saying 'wtf'.
And the headteacher unions have both overwhelmingly voted to reject the offer. They're the ones who know whether it's affordable or not.