To worry there is about to be a second 2008 financial crisis

[Warisocker]

Just to warn everyone, bellow is going to be quite a depressing read and this is just my opinion, I hope this will not happen.

The economy generally is absolutely shite compared to what it was the when I was a child and certainly compared to when my boomer parents were coming of age. By every metric out DC will have a worse quality of life on average than us. The benefit of increased life expectancy will most likely begin to reverse over the next decade or so and technological advancements have not been a silver bullet they were sold as, social media has wrecked out DCs mental health and will likely eliminate many potential jobs (chat GPT anyone?)

More recently, the war in Ukraine, the tension in terms of sanctions and the cost of living crisis is creating severe difficulties. For poorer people, a bad situation is being made much much worse. If it was once hard to make ends meet it’s now becoming almost impossible. For middle Britain, living standards are being (possibly irreversibly) decimated. Specifically for our DC moving away for university, getting a car at 17, being able to move out into a flat share with your friends, being able to buy a house in your 20s. These things will continue to go on for some, and good luck to those who can, but for the majority it’s going to become a thing of the past. And I think that’s a crying shame.

Specifically, about the title of my thread, Silicon Valley bank has collapsed. This was how the 2008 financial crisis started - a major bank collapsing. Aibu to worry that, in addition to the current dire situation, we may be headed for another financial crisis.

Svb, silverlink and signature all collapsed

You have conflated so many disparate issues in your OP that really it just reads as though you’re panicking in the face of a selective reading of bad news. FYI, panic can bring about the very thing you’re worrying about, even if the underlying metrics are sound (they are more sound than they were in 2008). So, first thing to do is calm down.

Secondly, none of us have a God given right to nothing but progress over the course of our lives and into our children’s lives. Who ordained that? Including the car at 17 and home ownership in our 20s? And, specifically, how can we expect this when we are wreaking climate havoc, and consuming so rapaciously (goods and services, including social media seeing as you’ve pointed to that)?

There is so much buck-passing going on, very little holding to account of elected officials or of ourselves. The Tories have never lied about who they are and what they stand for (well, they have, but we should all know better). We get the leaders we deserve. We all use Amazon, Uber eats, Instagram. So distracted by all this rubbish that we don’t pay attention to what matters. This is no accident. It’s pretty pointless complaining at this point. If you want things to change, make it happen 🤷‍♀️

I try and live day by day OP.

today I’m fine. Tomorrow I’ll probably be fine. I try not to think much beyond that.

Maybe that’s a selfish point of view but I’m also not arrogant enough to think I can change big things either for better or for worse.

It’s mainly self preservation to avoid anxiety. I recommend it.

Good twitter thread on the situation:

"Why US banks are failing🧵

US banks were provided with interest free money by the US Govt / FED for years to prop up the stock markets and to buy Govt bonds. The undocumented rule is that those banks which buy more Govt bonds get preferential treatment to access free money.
The US banking system has become a tool for the US Govt to create the illusion of a strong economy by pumping the markets with Govt printed money and using banks to raise more debt. That only works for a limited time because the more money is printed the higher inflation rises.
When inflation got out of control the US Govt / FED had to stop the interest free flow of printed money to US banks and increase interest rates. Banks which got used to making big profits by manipulating the market with free Govt money started to struggle without the regular fix.
The US Govt bonds that US banks bought, including with depositor funds, to qualify for more free printed money are now toxic assets with the increase in interest rates and the demand for US treasuries drying up globally. That's what created the current crisis for US banks.
In short, US Govt driven market and debt manipulation are to blame. President Biden said today that investors / shareholders of failed US banks will not be compensated because it’s their fault for making bad investments. In reality they are victims of the US Govt Ponzi scheme.
In my opinion the US financial sector is in terrible shape, US markets are highly manipulated, US Govt bonds are now considered a toxic asset with international demand drying up and the future outlook for the US economy couldn’t be more dire. The total collapse is inevitable"

It's extremely pessimistic, but when you add in wider geopolitical issues between the USA and China right now due to Taiwan, sanctions etc. and many other countries choosing to trade in anything but dollars and also offload a lot of their dollar reserves it could get bumpy. The Fed had a choice to make raise interest rates to offset inflation, making long term bonds worth less and putting those 30 regional banks at risk of collapse or stop the hikes, provide a backstop aka print more money which will lead to inflation.

Worse than 2008 in many ways because there was quite little inflation and plenty of wiggle room to lower rates to encourage borrowing. Now there is ingrained inflation, no real prosects of lowering interest rates without further inflation and GBP destruction. The real kicker is we may have been okay if the past 15 years of borrowing had been invested in productive assets... but nope! Spaffed on houses!

Those with secure jobs should be ok. Everyone else... not so much. I reckon we aren't far off the fabled tenner chicken. And I don't mean the fancy corn fed organic one.

UK and European banks are well capitalised so can withstand quite significant pressure and financial shocks. While it’s been seen as “hard” to do business in the UK and Europe in recent years compared to the US, we are about to see why it is important to run independent banking entities with boards that personay accountable.
Trump reversed aspects of the financial laws like Dodd Frank and they haven’t had the focus on governance that we have had here.

I'm one of those 'boomers' who was born in 1964. Since then I've watched the world go through financial crashes, wars, nuclear war threat, Chernobyl, Aids, the cold war, high unemployment and lately, like all of us, a pandemic. There is always so very much to worry about and yet I am sure most people born the same year as me will have many happy, safe loving times all entirely unrelated to the above. We can spend so much time worry about things that can't happen and then if they do what we realise is that all things can be tolerated.

So much in the news is set to worry us and the news now is everywhere, all the time. Humans aren't designed for this onslaught of horror and bad news.

There are many things that are better about the modern world than in earlier times e.g. infant mortality rates are much lower, cancer is much more treatable. We don't notice these things in the media as they aren't want sells newspapers.

All we can do is vote for the people we think will do the right thing by society, campaign and really work hard to influence those things we can for the better and then to live our lives and try not to worry too much.

Nah op, UK and European banks are much better capitalised than they were in 2008.

The bank HSBC bought were a specialty bank, set up to support Tech companies who have very specific finance requirements. So quite separate to standard retail and commercial banking (which is where the shit hit the fan the last time.

Looks like a good move for HSBC, plenty of profit in Tech. They wouldn’t touch a bad prospect with a barge pole. They were begged by the UK government to take on Northern Rock and refused.

Life is very difficult for a lot of people as it has been in the past, all you can do is take it day by day. No point worrying (pointless waste of brain energy) on something that you can’t control and might not happen 🤷‍♀️

All are well capitalised until there’s a huge run on them. Usually due to rumours through the markets or brokers. Which is pretty much what happened here