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Original poster

To be concerned about the balloon discovered hovering over Montana

262 replies

MeetPi · 03/02/2023 05:57

The balloon is said to be a Chinese spy balloon up to three football fields long. In the last few minutes, another balloon has possibly been spotted over Canada - where the first balloon apparently came through to the US.

Purportedly President Biden wanted to shoot the balloon down, but the Pentagon convinced him otherwise, as this could prove a risk to people on the ground.

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/02/pentagon-chinese-spy-balloon

OP posts:
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Sweetpeasaremadeforbees · 03/02/2023 11:24

Well men, really. I bet there were precisely no Chinese women involved in the development and deployment of this balloon.

Well that is probably not true but bearing in mind that there has never been a female member of the Standing Committee in China I think it's pretty safe to say that the decision to send the balloon was probably made by men.

Original poster
MeetPi · 03/02/2023 11:33

I'd like to point out that we only know what the US and Canadian governments have told us. For example, we don't know how the balloon was identified as Chinese in the first instance.

Separating truth from propaganda is difficult. I try to cross-check from a number of sources, but with something like this you can only do so much.

OP posts:
TwoLeftSocksWithHoles · 03/02/2023 12:05

Are they sure it is Chinese? I thought they used lanterns? 🤔

notimagain · 03/02/2023 12:10

Dotjones · 03/02/2023 10:57

I'm not sure whether they have grounds to shoot it down. It's a debated point as to the altitude where national airspace ends. Satellites for instance are clearly not treated as invading national airspace. This balloon is higher than aircraft usually fly. If the US shot down something above its airspace that could be seen as an aggressive act in the same way one country destroying another's satellite could be.

Of course decades back there was talk (Eisenhower?) of some sort of open skies agreement whereby intelligence gathering aircraft would be allowed to overfly other nations without being engaged...satellites made that idea a bit irellevant..

Then of course there was the boot on the foot with the Powers U-2 (attempt to overfly Soviet Russia)....and over the years as others have said this sort of intelligence gathering has gone on, modes various, on an almost daily basis..so whilst this has gone mainstream in terms of Press coverage it's certainly not something to catastrophise about - which some seem to.

@GasPanic

But my guess is there are two issues, one is whether they have something to go high up enough to shoot it down.

"They", as in the US, will most definitely have Surface to Air Missile and Air to Air Missiles that can go up that high - the States has even demonstrated an anti-satellite capability...Debris might be more of an issue.

DogInATent · 03/02/2023 12:50

But my guess is there are two issues, one is whether they have something to go high up enough to shoot it down.
Altitude isn't a problem. The US has anti-satellite weapons they can launch from planes.

They know it's Chinese from the track it's taking. It's followed the major air streams across the Pacific. The Japanese made use of the same predictable winds to launch incendiary bomb balloons against the US.

LiesDoNotBecomeUs · 03/02/2023 12:55

I am now rethinking my picture of the sophistication of Chinese spy technology. Balloon-spying seems very 19C 😁

JesusInTheCabbageVan · 03/02/2023 13:01

StressedToTheMaxxx · 03/02/2023 09:03

The photos are a little disappointing, I was expecting to see a balloon like from the film 'Up'. How boring.

That was lots and lots of balloons though.

Maybe they could attach lots and lots of balloons to this balloon, so that it floats off into space?

GasPanic · 03/02/2023 13:16

DogInATent · 03/02/2023 12:50

But my guess is there are two issues, one is whether they have something to go high up enough to shoot it down.
Altitude isn't a problem. The US has anti-satellite weapons they can launch from planes.

They know it's Chinese from the track it's taking. It's followed the major air streams across the Pacific. The Japanese made use of the same predictable winds to launch incendiary bomb balloons against the US.

Well without wanting to get too technical, hitting a satellite is a completely different task than hitting a static target.

Balloons like this are probably fairly low in altitude maybe 10s of km and moving fairly slowly, less than 100 kph. Satellites are higher up, maybe 100s of km and moving very quickly, maybe 17,000 kph. It's a completely different trajectory and launch pattern and rocket requirements. For example to hit a satellite you probably have to launch the missile miles before the target actually passes you, so it catches up with it to destroy it. An anti satellite missile may not even arm itself until it is 50km above the earths surface.

This thing could be sitting in a dead zone probably above surface to air/air to air missile range, but well below satellite range. If it is say at around 100,000 to 200,000 ft it could be really difficult to take down. Plus my guess is the Americans want it in as many bits as possible.

So in short, maybe they can shoot it down. Or maybe they can't. I'm pretty sure that if they couldn't they would not want to advertise it.

unsureatthispoint · 03/02/2023 13:20

It looks like one of those giant panda flying things

unsureatthispoint · 03/02/2023 13:21

Can't they 'haul' it back down?

MissConductUS · 03/02/2023 13:52

unsureatthispoint · 03/02/2023 13:21

Can't they 'haul' it back down?

Who is they? The Chinese could probably get it to descend by releasing some gas from the balloon. I can't imagine a way the US could haul it down. Shoot it down, certainly.

MissConductUS · 03/02/2023 14:02

This reply has been withdrawn

This message has been withdrawn at the poster's request

EasterIssland · 03/02/2023 14:16

From bbc
China's foreign ministry said it was used for "mainly meteorological" purposes.
China "regrets the unintended entry" of the balloon into US airspace, it added.

notimagain · 03/02/2023 14:28

EasterIssland · 03/02/2023 14:16

From bbc
China's foreign ministry said it was used for "mainly meteorological" purposes.
China "regrets the unintended entry" of the balloon into US airspace, it added.

Ah the old met research flight excuse......0/10 for originality.

When Powers got shot down that was the US cover story for a few days..

MissConductUS · 03/02/2023 14:29

This reply has been deleted

This message has been withdrawn at the poster's request

Apologies, I've posted this on the wrong thread and asked MNHQ to remove it.

UdoU · 03/02/2023 14:34

MeetPi · 03/02/2023 08:45

Perhaps look up what China has been building in the South China Sea.

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What has that got to do with the US?

Are you even in the US?!

DontbesuchanarseGlenda · 03/02/2023 14:42

@NeverDropYourMooncup
omg, they’re here to read us their poetry 😮

Sirius3030 · 03/02/2023 14:44

unsureatthispoint · 03/02/2023 10:46

Really? We have to tolerate stuff on our airspace because of fear of 'geopolitical ramifications'? How about if we sent a bunch of baloons their way? I bet that would go down well. Our leaders are beyond wet

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Yay! Let’s start the balloon war! What’s the worst that could happen after all!?

DogInATent · 03/02/2023 14:52

GasPanic · 03/02/2023 13:16

Well without wanting to get too technical, hitting a satellite is a completely different task than hitting a static target.

Balloons like this are probably fairly low in altitude maybe 10s of km and moving fairly slowly, less than 100 kph. Satellites are higher up, maybe 100s of km and moving very quickly, maybe 17,000 kph. It's a completely different trajectory and launch pattern and rocket requirements. For example to hit a satellite you probably have to launch the missile miles before the target actually passes you, so it catches up with it to destroy it. An anti satellite missile may not even arm itself until it is 50km above the earths surface.

This thing could be sitting in a dead zone probably above surface to air/air to air missile range, but well below satellite range. If it is say at around 100,000 to 200,000 ft it could be really difficult to take down. Plus my guess is the Americans want it in as many bits as possible.

So in short, maybe they can shoot it down. Or maybe they can't. I'm pretty sure that if they couldn't they would not want to advertise it.

Show quote history

It was purely a demonstration that altitude isn't a problem.

Low radar cross-section and the somewhat flimsy construction of a balloon probably is. The gas envelope would have to be comprehensively shredded to bring it down quickly. A 'wounded' balloon slowly shedding gas could take hours to descend.

notimagain · 03/02/2023 15:31

GasPanic · 03/02/2023 13:16

Well without wanting to get too technical, hitting a satellite is a completely different task than hitting a static target.

Balloons like this are probably fairly low in altitude maybe 10s of km and moving fairly slowly, less than 100 kph. Satellites are higher up, maybe 100s of km and moving very quickly, maybe 17,000 kph. It's a completely different trajectory and launch pattern and rocket requirements. For example to hit a satellite you probably have to launch the missile miles before the target actually passes you, so it catches up with it to destroy it. An anti satellite missile may not even arm itself until it is 50km above the earths surface.

This thing could be sitting in a dead zone probably above surface to air/air to air missile range, but well below satellite range. If it is say at around 100,000 to 200,000 ft it could be really difficult to take down. Plus my guess is the Americans want it in as many bits as possible.

So in short, maybe they can shoot it down. Or maybe they can't. I'm pretty sure that if they couldn't they would not want to advertise it.

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@GasPanic

I don't want to get too technical either but I'm not buying that this balloon is sat in some magic dead zone..certainly not even it's at around 100k feet (which, plus or minus maybe 20k or so is about as high the best balloons carrying any decent payload have historically to reach).

A tough target compared with some objects I agree but on the plus side not hidden away in ground returns, and pretty much static so not many dynamic demands any missile post launch when up in the thin air.

There will be some SAMs and/or fighter/AIM combinations in the US inventory that could reach it...

greenspaces4peace · 03/02/2023 15:35

from what I read it’s huge, 3 USA size football fields. If it was brought down, birds wildlife trees homes people houses so so much potential damage. The weight of it must be significant.

MissConductUS · 03/02/2023 15:46

There will be some SAMs and/or fighter/AIM combinations in the US inventory that could reach it...

I agree. The AIM-120 has a maximum range of 75km. That's assuming favorable launch geometry.

www.military-today.com/missiles/aim120_amraam.htm

The F-16 has a ceiling of 50,000 feet. The AIM-120 fired on a near-verticle path should easily reach 120k feet from there.

Ponderingwindow · 03/02/2023 15:49

I’m not going to get worked up about potential spying or surveillance. That is happening constantly.

I will be much more concerned if it turns out the primary goal isn’t information gathering.

DogInATent · 03/02/2023 15:57

greenspaces4peace · 03/02/2023 15:35

from what I read it’s huge, 3 USA size football fields. If it was brought down, birds wildlife trees homes people houses so so much potential damage. The weight of it must be significant.

Not really. I've had to look this up.. the balloon for the Baumgartner high altitude jump was much larger (40 acres of fabric, or 30 US football pitches worth) but the capsule weight was limited to less than 1,400kg.

Helium/hydrogen doesn't have a huge amount of lift potential, and at high altitude it needs a very big balloon to allow it to expand at the low atmospheric pressures. It's not like a toy rubber balloon, it's more like inflating a rubbish sack.

If it came down it might smother someone, but it's not going to crush them.

LittleRedYarny · 03/02/2023 16:17

I think you’re right… but that is only because he’d be willingly handing over everything they asked for and more.