To be stressed about GCSE 'flight path'

[Judetheobscurio]

My daughter is in year 9, and we have only just begun to receive progress reports which detail her 'flight path', as in year 7 and 8 all reports focused on 'effort' and whether she was 'meeting expectations'. What these expectations were was not stated, and I only finally received the 'flight path' at the start of year 9 when I requested it (although now it is given in the reports as 'target' grades for GCSE, along with current level, and an indication of what would be expected at this stage for someone with these 'target grades').

I was somewhat shocked at the flight path she has been given, which is mainly 5s and 6s. Maybe naively, I had understood throughout primary school and years 7 and 8 that she is a bright child and is doing well, although she has never been pushed by us or had tutors - we live in an area with good local secondary schools so no need to prepare for 11 plus etc. I have subsequently realised this entire flight path (for all subjects, including DT, Art, PE!) has been based on SATS results - for context she didn't do SATS due to covid, although prior to this, when it was expected they would, primary school very much pushed the view that SATS were to test the school not the child and would have no bearing on her future education (subsequently I feel this information was erroneous). Despite not doing SATS, the 'results' submitted for her were based on one practice paper done in January of year 6 - several months before she would normally have sat these, and without the preparation that would usually have occurred. I have no idea if other local schools (she went to a small village primary) have 'estimated' their results in the same way.

She has recently been diagnosed with dyslexia (my concerns about an academic performance below what I would have expected led me to reflect on a few issues which had been in the back of my mind for a while and have her assessed) so this is likely to have had an impact on her attaining her potential and hopefully she can now be supported with this. My worry is the craziness of basing an entire predicted academic attainment across a wide range of subjects on two English and maths papers age 11. Reassuringly the recent progress report (which comes with limited explanation and took me a while to interpret) seems to indicate she is currently achieving above what would be expected for her 'target grades', even without her dyslexia having been recognised and supported.

My worry is that teachers are just going to work towards people achieving these arbitrary 'targets' and think that's fine, when from my point of view it isn't and I would
like her to be supported to aim higher than this. I'd really appreciate advice from any teachers as to whether this is the case or whether we can just ignore these predictions and support her to work towards achieving the best possible grades. Also from anyone who has experience of dc being given 'target grades' which turned out to be inacccurate. It feels to me like some kind of fate has been set aged 11 without us being properly informed, and with potentially damaging consequences.
Apologies for long post for anyone who has got this far!

The flight path will be based on what similar students with comparable SATS scores went on to achieve at GCSE. As the data set for your daughter isn't complete, the flight path is going to reflect that.

It sounds like this is something that the school only gave you after you specifically requested them, and so might not reflect the school's full input. Current Working At and Predicted grades are probably far more worth your concern. The flight path may even rise in the next report or two - it doesn't limit what your child can attain at all.

Teachers and schools are judged on "Value Added" on the Progress 8, so the higher the average grade over the target, the better.

Also, 5s and 6s are perfectly respectable grades - if that's what she ends up getting, there are worse things.

Who called them flight paths? You said the report said 'target grades'. Did the working at grades' say the same? 5-6? My DD has similar targets but is working above in a fair few subjects.

My dd is also a year that didn't do SATs. I am also a teacher. We did CATs tests to support our targets in lieu of SATs. They are much lower than expected across the whole year group. Our set 1s all have targets around 5-6 when in fact, nothing suggests when teaching them, that they will perform any less than previous years who have gone on to achieve top grades.

My DD has been diagnosed with ASD (3 year wait) and is also likely dyslexic and have processing issues. She, from what I can tell, is working at around grade 6-7 on average. But she now has extra support in place. I've been told I am likely going to have to get a private diagnosis for the dyslexia which I must remember to talk to the SENCO about as the earlier the better. Don't hang around on this.

Of course teachers don't teach towards the target grade. Ever. Our results are scrutinized and our performance judged on these. Getting students to be above their target and to do the best they can is of course the aim for every student. At least I expect that from my colleagues in my department.

My youngest is another year 9 with no SATS scores
His school have current and predicted on his reports, based on if he took gsces now what he'd achieve... they did CAT tests when they finally started secondary properly.

The flight path is a best guess of average performance.
Some kids will follow it. Some kids will exceed it. Some kids won't match it.
Fous on you daughter being the best she can.

Don't worry too much OP. Schools have to have target grades based on data - and for secondary schools SATs is the best - however flawed. That said teachers don't stick to those targets - it's just a vague aim. All good teachers will be doing their own assessments and coming up with their own aims for each student. The official target is usually pretty meaningless.

But again, these targets are for the school. If your daughter exceeds these targets, she's done the school a favour too. It's all about their progress 8 scores.

It doesn't mean that is what she will get, should get, what the teachers are teaching to. This is just on average, kids at 11 who scored what your daughter scored, went on to get at GCSE. A blunt tool.

It might help if you think of it as a safety net (something that will get noticed if she drops below)

Not a limit

In my experience flight path expectations tend on the cautious side where there have been estimates, schools know full well that they get hammered by ofsted if pupils achieve below flight path expectations so its in their interest to predict low

Secondary schools generally base the predicted grades on testing that they do when children join the school. These are usually CAT tests or equivalent. Very little emphasis is placed on them e.g. multiple choice test done in the computer lab on a Wednesday afternoon. Your daughter may not remember doing them. It is an indicator for the school and something they use to work out their value added stats. Your daughter’s teachers will want her to achieve the best possible grades that she can. However, they are predictions equivalent to B/C grades. Considering she has been meeting expectations and has been diagnosed with dyslexia after you have had some concerns, those grades predictions sound reasonably realistic.

Im a TA not a teacher but I’m familiar with flight paths and how they are used. I can reassure you that teachers will always teach to the child’s abilities, a child won’t be restricted in any way from reaching the highest grades just because of their flight path.
It will be noted if she starts to fall significantly below her flight path grades, and hopefully some remedial action put in place. But if she achieves above her flight path she will be praised and encouraged to keep on improving, not held back in any way.

'Flight paths'- what an awful phrase.

Hope you can get the support you need for your daughter OP.

My DD had lower predicted grades as she started to perform better from year 9 onwards. I too worried about it but she did much better in her actual results . Choose the subjects she likes for gcse and keep an eye on what she is achieving in next year or so. She may not be academically in the 8/9 categories and that's ok, one thing I would do if her maths and English are low is get tutor as she really needs a 5 to make life easier later on.

You don’t think much of teachers, do you?

a child won’t be restricted in any way from reaching the highest grades just because of their flight path.

It will be noted if she starts to fall significantly below her flight path grades

No, but its the constraints on teachers time and lack of resource that means teachers usually end up having to focus on the second of the two things above, and not the former. A school will be judged more poorly if lots of kids don't achieve expectations per flight path, because the teachers time was spent pushing a hand full of more able to get higher grades than expected.

Another Yr 9 with no SATS. I'm not that worried for ds2. Haven't even seen his flight path. Agree with pp that they are often conservative. Ds1 did better than his predicted. You'd be better off talking to Senco and HoY re making sure she's fully supported re the dyslexia and is getting all the support she can to facilitate good results. If you don't push, don't get it agreed in an email, you get less.

Llyn Flight path is common terminology at the moment.

I get you OP. Often primary school parents evenings are full of messages about how well a child is doing and that they are bright, but I think they say the same positive things to most people, and I'm sure they are true, all kids are 'bright', they are interested, curious, active etc but the first real data you get is SATs.

At secondary some schools use SATS, some do their own tests, many use contextualised scores (DC with same SATS, from same primary will have different flight path based on home address etc). SATs do matter, and primary schools either mislead parents or just do not know. Of course DC are not limited by the flight path as posters above have claimed but that is disingenuous. They will not be identified as needing support if they are bumping along the flight path, and what if that flight path is below their potential? That's where the issue is.

In our school targets come from fft5 data and flightpaths are what teachers estimate students will achieve at the end of year 11 based on their prior and current effort and attainment. You shouldn't worry about them or even feel affected by them. Fyi the teacher will be doing their best to support all students in class to achieve and won't be able to provide your child with any special support.

Would you have been disappointed if you had been given a report that was b and c in old money? I don't think they're bad grades?

It’s not particularly time consuming to encourage students to exceed their flight path grades. A teacher will just give the slightly more challenging worksheets to the students who are demonstrating they can cope with harder work, invite students to pick the harder maths questions if they want to stretch themselves, question them a bit further when answering questions in class to encourage them to give a more developed answer, etc.

My top Year 9 have low targets. Took me less than 3 lessons to realise that (we do baseline assessments right at the start). I pitch high (and hope I get them for GCSE as my residuals will be amazing 🤣)

Thanks for the responses
The school uses both the terminology flight path and targets - but I guess the flight path consists of the targets so they are kind of the same thing.

It's somewhat reassuring to know that (good) teachers won't be restricted by the student's flight path in supporting them to achieve potential. I hope that is true of most. Currently, if I've interpreted correctly it looks like she is working a grade or so above the flight path in most of her subjects (ie a grade or so above where someone with that flight path would be expected to be now!)

I've vaguely heard of CAT scores - school have not mentioned so I don't know if they use them. The report states the flight path is based on key stage 2 scores - as someone said, they reflect what students who achieved similar scores at key stage 2 have gone on to get at GCSE.

I appreciate some will think 5 and 6 respectable grades - being honest though, it's not what I would have wanted or expected her to be capable of achieving, and I suspect there would be others on here who would feel similar. I acknowledge this is based on mine and dh's academic experience so I am somewhat projecting. I guess 6 is ok, but I would really want her to be aiming higher than a 5. I don't think it's correct that in context of dyslexia she should necessarily be aiming lower - the dyslexia explains to me why she has not been reaching what I consider to be her potential, and with support she should therefore be able to do this. For example, she will now get extra time in exams and one issue which has come to light recently is her speed of reading processing impacting on how much she is able to complete in the time given. The fact that she has actually been doing as well as she has given the degree of her phonological processing and speed of processing, which have gone completely undetected other than by me, indicates the extent to which she has been able to overcompensate for these issues.

Essentially, I want her to be supported to get the best grades she can, to hopefully be able to access sixth form and a good university/ college. I don't want her year 6 determined 'flight path' to be set in stone and for her not to be supported to achieve more if she can.

A flight path by definition shows the child's predicted progress based on where they were at start of secondary school. It's based on averages (although there is still comparatively small amounts of data based on actual SATS and actual GCSEs). It's a broad tool to look at trends across all children

However, your child is an individual. Your teachers (but probably not in Year 9) will also provide you with predicted GCSE results based on how they are actually progressing in class /achieving in tests etc. These are more useful. But still only a guess! Teachers don't teach based on flight paths - they try to support your child to do as well as they can. Children who achieve more highly than their targets look good for the school :)

Best thing to focus on is whether your child is putting in sufficient effort - if they are working hard and making progress, then you can't actually ask any more of them.

@mumsys thanks - I was almost relieved to get the dyslexia diagnosis as I felt it explained some things. The form 8 (?) which allows access to exam arrangements has already been completed and I have a meeting with the SENCO next week - so I will definitely be pushing for as much support as they can offer, I realise that has to be a focus. There were a number of suggestions made in the report, which we obtained privately, and hopefully the school will also have things in place to support dyslexic students.