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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think Liz Truss MUST call a general election to make “unpopular” and “difficult” decisions that deviate from the last GE manifesto?

280 replies

CurseOfBigness · 22/09/2022 16:02

I get that Liz Truss is a keen new prime minister full of beans and ideas. I just don’t think she has the mandate to push through decisions that are “unpopular” and “difficult” if it deviates from the last general election’s manifesto.

Liz Truss plans radical shift in economic policy: New UK prime minister readies tax-cutting mini-Budget and says she is prepared to be unpopular.

This new prime minister has not gained her position by winning a general election. If she wants to radically change things and be “unpopular” then she needs to put the vote to the people.

Truss talked the talk about promoting “freedom” and not being dictated by “instructions”. But Freedom is not for free. The rule of law applies as “instructions” to help keep society civilised. Checks and balances.

Removing the cap on bankers’ bonuses is a poor PR move. Trickle down economics is problematic and already being criticised as ineffective.

Truss thinks she can do what she wants because she’s party leader and by default became prime minister. But Truss can’t afford to be “unpopular” because she needs to win a general election in her own right first.

AIBU to think Liz Truss must call a general election to make “unpopular” and “difficult” decisions that deviate from the last GE manifesto? Isn’t that how democracy works?!

OP posts:
CurseOfBigness · 23/09/2022 11:05

the80sweregreat · 23/09/2022 10:58

It's not just people who are wary of the conservatives saying all this is a bad idea, it's also one of the older members of the conservatives as well ( Mr sunak and Mr Hammond spring to mind) plus those who didn't back Ms Truss for the leadership. She didn't win that very convincingly plus many probably only voted for her as they didn't like the fact that Mr Sunak wasn't Boris Johnson or of Indian heritage. It was a a bit of a shallow victory for her to be fair.
Still, we will have to see how it goes. We haven't got much choice in the matter

I think a GE will allow us some choice in the matter.

As it stands, the choices are being made by a person who has not won a general election and has no proper mandate.

I suspect she was the only world leader at the UN General Assembly to have not won a general election in her own right. That’ll likely lose some respect amongst her peers on the world stage. She simply doesn’t wield the same level of authority.

OP posts:
CurseOfBigness · 23/09/2022 11:13

walkingonsunshinekat · 23/09/2022 10:53

Judging by the complete lack of warmth in their body language when Truss and Biden met recently & by both sides stating there will be no trade talks, i think its safe to say, Biden & Truss share nothing in common, policy wise.

£/$ down even further after the mini statement, markets also don't believe in Trickle Down either and more importantly, the UK's ability to pay for its borrowing, which is vital, lose that confidence and we are in IMF territory.

We are heading for economic disaster, which to be fair, Sunak said would happen.

Sunak seemed to be better qualified tbh.

I agree people within the party didn’t vote for him based on his Indian heritage. And it’s their loss.

OP posts:
MarshaBradyo · 23/09/2022 11:17

CurseOfBigness · 23/09/2022 11:13

Sunak seemed to be better qualified tbh.

I agree people within the party didn’t vote for him based on his Indian heritage. And it’s their loss.

Are you sure it was his heritage? I thought Badenoch was popular with the party membership

I got the sense it was his wealth and a shift to the right they responded to, maybe you have a survey / extra info in which case fair enough

This was so predictable though. Given the media events of last few years with Johnson and Sunak I’m not sure why people are surprised this is where we are

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:17

walkingonsunshinekat
France has a very low inflation rate purely because it nationalised EDF, a policy a tory would never countenance

And Labour?

July 2022
Rachel Reeves has said the nationalisation of industries the party previously pledged to bring into public ownership “just doesn’t stack up against our fiscal rules”.

labourlist.org/2022/07/nationalisation-just-doesnt-stack-up-against-our-fiscal-rules-reeves-says/

Emmanuel Macron (formerly an investment banker) has generally been a tax-cutting President:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/macron-lures-bankers-fleeing-london-with-tax-cuts-for-rich-8r8vzhxgj

www.internationaltaxreview.com/article/2a6ab6uyjg7ixq6jiornk/macrons-pledges-the-end-of-cvae-in-bid-for-second-term

www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220317-macron-vows-tax-cuts-benefits-shake-up-in-election-manifesto

www.investing.com/news/economy/macrons-government-defends-french-tax-cuts-and-spending-with-2022-budget-2623104

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:21

I suspect she was the only world leader at the UN General Assembly to have not won a general election in her own right.

There have been plenty of minority governments scattered around Europe.

CurseOfBigness · 23/09/2022 11:26

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:21

I suspect she was the only world leader at the UN General Assembly to have not won a general election in her own right.

There have been plenty of minority governments scattered around Europe.

As upthread, hers is a majority government, not a minority one. The problem is that all the other world leaders know her majority was inherited from Boris Johnson. Truss has no proper mandate because she has not won a general election in her own right.

So Truss can preach her economic policy to world leaders all she wants. But she simply won’t wield much authority, respect, credibility or gravitas amongst those world leaders.

Truss got in through the back door. And now she’s preaching to world leaders.

There’s an understandable lack of confidence in the government, hence the weakening pound.

OP posts:
Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:31

Brexit has been a disaster

Too early to say. Some promising news here:

31 August 2022
Exports to both EU and non-EU markets have exceeded pre-COVID levels for the first time in the first half of 2022, according to new figures released by the Food and Drink Federation (FDF).

The Food and Drink Federation’s Head of International Trade Dominic Goudie said:
“It is promising to see exports to EU and non-EU markets top pre-pandemic levels given the exciting opportunities presented by new trade deals with Canada, Australia, India and the Gulf Cooperation Council. These are vital to driving future growth in the UK food and drink sector.

Food & Drink Exporters Association Director John Whitehead said:
“We are pleased to see the continuing growth in exports of food and drink in 2022. British meat and dairy exports are growing well and chocolate exports remain strong reflecting the continuing demand for quality British confectionery.

www.fdf.org.uk/fdf/news-media/news/2022-news/uk-food-and-drink-exports-pass-pre-pandemic-levels/

CurseOfBigness · 23/09/2022 11:33

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:17

walkingonsunshinekat
France has a very low inflation rate purely because it nationalised EDF, a policy a tory would never countenance

And Labour?

July 2022
Rachel Reeves has said the nationalisation of industries the party previously pledged to bring into public ownership “just doesn’t stack up against our fiscal rules”.

labourlist.org/2022/07/nationalisation-just-doesnt-stack-up-against-our-fiscal-rules-reeves-says/

Emmanuel Macron (formerly an investment banker) has generally been a tax-cutting President:

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/macron-lures-bankers-fleeing-london-with-tax-cuts-for-rich-8r8vzhxgj

www.internationaltaxreview.com/article/2a6ab6uyjg7ixq6jiornk/macrons-pledges-the-end-of-cvae-in-bid-for-second-term

www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220317-macron-vows-tax-cuts-benefits-shake-up-in-election-manifesto

www.investing.com/news/economy/macrons-government-defends-french-tax-cuts-and-spending-with-2022-budget-2623104

Seems like Macron can afford to tax cut because it’s balanced out by nationalising EDF.

Compromise.

Tax cuts are ok it seems, as long as public services don’t suffer too.

Truss’ government doesn’t seem to have a grip on the balancing act. That’s where the fall is likely to happen.

OP posts:
Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:34

CurseOfBigness
So Truss can preach her economic policy to world leaders all she wants.

Her economic policy has many similarities with Macron's economic policy as far as I can tell.

TooBigForMyBoots · 23/09/2022 11:38

6 years after the vote to leave Brexit has been a disaster for the UK and it isn't done yet.

CurseOfBigness · 23/09/2022 11:39

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:34

CurseOfBigness
So Truss can preach her economic policy to world leaders all she wants.

Her economic policy has many similarities with Macron's economic policy as far as I can tell.

So you think she’s a wannabe Macron?

Macron appears to have balanced his economic policy with nationalisation. So, no, I do not think Truss is a Macron.

Truss is more likely following a Ronald Reagan style of economic policy that was popular with Thatcher (surprise, surprise).

OP posts:
Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:42

CurseOfBigness
Seems like Macron can afford to tax cut because it’s balanced out by nationalising EDF.

From my links:

2017 -
France is planning to woo bankers across the Channel by cutting payroll taxes for high earners moving to Paris.

2022 -
PARIS (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron's government defended its tax cuts and unprecedented pandemic spending on Wednesday as it turned in its budget plans for 2022, a presidential election year.

Seven months out from the vote, right-wing candidates have already attacked the government over the 130 billion euros ($152.5 billion) - nearly 6% of GDP - spent since the COVID-19 crisis erupted to keep households afloat.

The OECD is based in Paris -

June 2022
OECD Warns UK Set to Stagnate in 2023, Urges Tax Cuts

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-08/cut-taxes-before-economy-grinds-to-a-halt-oecd-warns-uk

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:47

TooBigForMyBoots
6 years after the vote to leave Brexit

Various parties were trying their upmost to stop us leaving the EU right up until the general election in December 2019 - since then we've have a worldwide pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

CurseOfBigness · 23/09/2022 11:49

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:42

CurseOfBigness
Seems like Macron can afford to tax cut because it’s balanced out by nationalising EDF.

From my links:

2017 -
France is planning to woo bankers across the Channel by cutting payroll taxes for high earners moving to Paris.

2022 -
PARIS (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron's government defended its tax cuts and unprecedented pandemic spending on Wednesday as it turned in its budget plans for 2022, a presidential election year.

Seven months out from the vote, right-wing candidates have already attacked the government over the 130 billion euros ($152.5 billion) - nearly 6% of GDP - spent since the COVID-19 crisis erupted to keep households afloat.

The OECD is based in Paris -

June 2022
OECD Warns UK Set to Stagnate in 2023, Urges Tax Cuts

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-08/cut-taxes-before-economy-grinds-to-a-halt-oecd-warns-uk

Tax cuts in France are balanced by nationalisation… that’s not happening in the UK.

Macron is also backed back one of the largest trading blocs, the EU. He can afford to take more risks and knows it.

Truss doesn’t have any backing like that. How can she take such wild gamble?

Point being: Macron and Truss are in different situations. It’s not comparable. They’re facing different issues at home and abroad.

Plus, have you checked if those calling for tax cuts don’t have vested interests?

OP posts:
Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:51

CurseOfBigness
There’s an understandable lack of confidence in the government, hence the weakening pound.

And the Euro?

22 August 2022
Euro at Two-Decade Low Just Start of Drop, Strategists Say
Common currency breaks below parity again amid grim backdrop
Morgan Stanley forecasts euro will slide to $0.97 this quarter

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/euro-back-below-parity-just-start-of-decline-strategists-say

CurseOfBigness · 23/09/2022 11:53

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:47

TooBigForMyBoots
6 years after the vote to leave Brexit

Various parties were trying their upmost to stop us leaving the EU right up until the general election in December 2019 - since then we've have a worldwide pandemic and the war in Ukraine.

Meaning that Brexit was short-sighted, naive and didn’t factor in worst case scenarios?

Bad things can happen at any time.
Bad luck that bad things happened to coincide with Brexit, making it harder.

The fates are warning something is wrong…

OP posts:
Torunette · 23/09/2022 11:57

Ach, I find these threads fascinating.

I have quite a bit of insight into Tory grassroots politics, and Sunak lost, fundamentally, because the grassroots thought he was too rich and they didn't want another public-school type in the top job because they are too divorced from the reality of the country. The grassroots are sick of Etonian types.

This does not mean, however, that they wanted Truss. A significant number of them I've spoken to actually hoped that Kemi or Wallace would make it.

This economic problem goes back to 1997 because Labour had made a manifesto commitment on a) schools and hospitals and b) to stick to Tory spending plans in the first term. They discovered, once they got into power, that there just wasn't the money to deliver a), and they were further hobbled by b), but this was tricky because they'd spent years developing the "evil Tories want you to live in slums" line. So that's why the expansion of PFI came about -- it was a way to deliver capital projects a) without contravening b).

Only in 2001, they were no longer committed to b), but had already discovered that the tax take didn't have the capacity to fund a) or, indeed, very much else. So Brown not only spent up to receipts, he even borrowed YOY during the "boom" between 2001 and 2007. Of course, when the "boom" collapsed (because it was entirely predicated on cheap credit), tax receipts collapsed by £200bn -- in essence, tax receipts shrank back to the level they had been in 2001 (this was entirely predictable). But the state was still committed to 2007-level spends.

Hence ... the need for austerity, which was, in short, an attempt to get receipts and expenditure more in balance, which was even more difficult because the public sector was hobbled by expensive PFI liabilities.

Then Boris the clown came along. And the pandemic happened. And Boris panicked because the narrative is "everyone is going to die." Cue: huge amounts of spend, like confetti chucked into the air.

We come to now: shit books, PFI liabilities like vampire squids stuck to our backs, everyone running around like headless chickens, unnerving price rises, housing costs sucking the blood out of the system, former QE that still hasn't been removed from the system, increasing energy prices ...

... and it comes down to this. It does not matter what political party you talk about, the issue is the very nature of the political narrative in Britain. It is far too adversarial. You cannot govern and run a country successfully (or, indeed, anything) with a blue team versus red team mentality. It's not a game of football.

Good governance requires people to engage with reality, and not let ideology, whether it be on the left or the right, get in the way.

The media is largely to blame for this climate, but activists do not help (and actually push away the people that we really need in politics). Neither do the attitudes of some MPs. To some extent, Corbyn recognised the problem and tried to do something a bit different at PMQs, but people just scoffed at him.

And to those arguing against FPTP, if Britain had PR, we would have had a decade of a parliament where UKIP would have been a powerful minority in the HoC. If we had AV, it would have benefitted UKIP, the Greens and the Lib Dems.

I'm not massively happy we have Truss. But I wouldn't be massively happy with Starmer either. Ain't nothing happening over the next ten years apart from dealing with this economic mess and attempting to keep the show on the road, regardless of who is PM -- it's just that if it was Labour in charge, the anti-Tories (apart from whoever is in the SWP at that point, and no one listens to them anyway) won't scrutinise government actions for any bungs to the super-rich.

TLDR: It's all a huge mess. Both parties are to blame. Liz Truss is a side matter. Hold onto your hats. Think frugal. Support the vulnerable in your communities. Insist on good governance and say no to willy waving and battle politics.

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:58

CurseOfBigness
Meaning that Brexit was short-sighted, naive and didn’t factor in worst case scenarios?

Like Ukraine joining the EU in 10 years time? The new Turkey? Freedom of movement with the poorest country in Europe (even before the war) - population over 40 million.

walkingonsunshinekat · 23/09/2022 11:59

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:51

CurseOfBigness
There’s an understandable lack of confidence in the government, hence the weakening pound.

And the Euro?

22 August 2022
Euro at Two-Decade Low Just Start of Drop, Strategists Say
Common currency breaks below parity again amid grim backdrop
Morgan Stanley forecasts euro will slide to $0.97 this quarter

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-22/euro-back-below-parity-just-start-of-decline-strategists-say

The fall of the Euro is to do with war in eastern Europe and high US rates, just as both affected the £.

Now we have a collapse in sterling due to the Tories totally un costed borrowing requirements to fund energy costs and tax cuts, with no increases in public investment, so all this money can just flow out of the country.

Maybe learn some history?

Blossomtoes · 23/09/2022 12:01

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:21

I suspect she was the only world leader at the UN General Assembly to have not won a general election in her own right.

There have been plenty of minority governments scattered around Europe.

That’s not quite the same thing. Truss hasn’t been exposed to electoral judgement at all.

MarshaBradyo · 23/09/2022 12:02

Appreciate your post Torunette some good insights there, loved the confetti line and others

walkingonsunshinekat · 23/09/2022 12:03

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 11:58

CurseOfBigness
Meaning that Brexit was short-sighted, naive and didn’t factor in worst case scenarios?

Like Ukraine joining the EU in 10 years time? The new Turkey? Freedom of movement with the poorest country in Europe (even before the war) - population over 40 million.

Ukrainians are a proud and patriotic people, even in our small part of the UK, Ukrainian families are returning home, once the war is over, more will follow, they will rebuild with help from the EU and RoW, whether the UK will have any money left after you lot have wasted it the wall is another matter.

Maybe you prefer 5m mainly elderly HK Chinese coming to the UK ?

CurseOfBigness · 23/09/2022 12:10

Torunette · 23/09/2022 11:57

Ach, I find these threads fascinating.

I have quite a bit of insight into Tory grassroots politics, and Sunak lost, fundamentally, because the grassroots thought he was too rich and they didn't want another public-school type in the top job because they are too divorced from the reality of the country. The grassroots are sick of Etonian types.

This does not mean, however, that they wanted Truss. A significant number of them I've spoken to actually hoped that Kemi or Wallace would make it.

This economic problem goes back to 1997 because Labour had made a manifesto commitment on a) schools and hospitals and b) to stick to Tory spending plans in the first term. They discovered, once they got into power, that there just wasn't the money to deliver a), and they were further hobbled by b), but this was tricky because they'd spent years developing the "evil Tories want you to live in slums" line. So that's why the expansion of PFI came about -- it was a way to deliver capital projects a) without contravening b).

Only in 2001, they were no longer committed to b), but had already discovered that the tax take didn't have the capacity to fund a) or, indeed, very much else. So Brown not only spent up to receipts, he even borrowed YOY during the "boom" between 2001 and 2007. Of course, when the "boom" collapsed (because it was entirely predicated on cheap credit), tax receipts collapsed by £200bn -- in essence, tax receipts shrank back to the level they had been in 2001 (this was entirely predictable). But the state was still committed to 2007-level spends.

Hence ... the need for austerity, which was, in short, an attempt to get receipts and expenditure more in balance, which was even more difficult because the public sector was hobbled by expensive PFI liabilities.

Then Boris the clown came along. And the pandemic happened. And Boris panicked because the narrative is "everyone is going to die." Cue: huge amounts of spend, like confetti chucked into the air.

We come to now: shit books, PFI liabilities like vampire squids stuck to our backs, everyone running around like headless chickens, unnerving price rises, housing costs sucking the blood out of the system, former QE that still hasn't been removed from the system, increasing energy prices ...

... and it comes down to this. It does not matter what political party you talk about, the issue is the very nature of the political narrative in Britain. It is far too adversarial. You cannot govern and run a country successfully (or, indeed, anything) with a blue team versus red team mentality. It's not a game of football.

Good governance requires people to engage with reality, and not let ideology, whether it be on the left or the right, get in the way.

The media is largely to blame for this climate, but activists do not help (and actually push away the people that we really need in politics). Neither do the attitudes of some MPs. To some extent, Corbyn recognised the problem and tried to do something a bit different at PMQs, but people just scoffed at him.

And to those arguing against FPTP, if Britain had PR, we would have had a decade of a parliament where UKIP would have been a powerful minority in the HoC. If we had AV, it would have benefitted UKIP, the Greens and the Lib Dems.

I'm not massively happy we have Truss. But I wouldn't be massively happy with Starmer either. Ain't nothing happening over the next ten years apart from dealing with this economic mess and attempting to keep the show on the road, regardless of who is PM -- it's just that if it was Labour in charge, the anti-Tories (apart from whoever is in the SWP at that point, and no one listens to them anyway) won't scrutinise government actions for any bungs to the super-rich.

TLDR: It's all a huge mess. Both parties are to blame. Liz Truss is a side matter. Hold onto your hats. Think frugal. Support the vulnerable in your communities. Insist on good governance and say no to willy waving and battle politics.

That’s a great contribution. Thank you! I learned a lot!

But I still think Sunak’s Indian heritage was a factor too. No one will openly admit this for obvious reasons.

OP posts:
Clavinova · 23/09/2022 12:14

walkingonsunshinekat
The fall of the Euro is to do with war in eastern Europe and high US rates, just as both affected the £.

Yes, I know - tell that to CurseOfBigness.

with no increases in public investment

Plenty of public investment was announced under Boris Johnson.

From the announcements today;

It was also confirmed that the government is in discussion with 38 local and mayoral combined authority areas in England including Tees Valley, South Yorkshire and West of England to set up Investment Zones in specific sites within their area. Each Investment Zone will offer generous, targeted and time limited tax cuts for businesses and liberalised planning rules to release more land for housing and commercial development. These will be hubs for growth, encouraging investment in new shopping centres, restaurants, apartments and offices, and creating thriving new communities.

^In a further move to grow the economy, the Chancellor announced plans to accelerate new roads, rail and energy infrastructure. In 2021 it took 65 per cent longer to get consent for major infrastructure projects than in 2012. New legislation will cut barriers and restrictions, making it quicker to plan and build new roads, speeding up the deployment of energy infrastructure like offshore wind farms and streamlining environmental assessments and regulations."

Clavinova · 23/09/2022 12:20

Ukrainians are a proud and patriotic people

Indeed they are - but you are implying that Polish, Romanian, Bulgarian, Lithuanian... people are not?

Swipe left for the next trending thread