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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To worry about Putin

38 replies

TarasHarp55 · 13/09/2022 15:51

Im so worried that he might just lash out in Ukraine with a nuclear weapon. Then that would be ww3. I wasn't even thinking on those lines because I don't watch the news but I heard my dh and sil discussing the possibility. I wish I hadn't heard them tbh. Now I'm worried sick. Can anyone give any reassurance? Sorry to sound so weak.

OP posts:
Levellingdown · 13/09/2022 15:54
  1. It wouldn’t start WW3 if they used a small nuclear weapon in Ukraine
  2. You can’t do anything about it, if the world ended in a nuclear war next week it would have been a waste of your last days to spend it being worried!
TarasHarp55 · 13/09/2022 15:57

I know worrying is a total waste of time but that's the thing...I can't help it

OP posts:
Whammyyammy · 13/09/2022 15:58

When I heard Ukraine were pushing the orcs back, I thought great. But then thought putin will probably retaliate irrationally, but I wouldn't waste time worrying. If a world wide nuclear war breaks out, the world will end for all very quickly....

Swingsarefun · 13/09/2022 16:00

This on Twitter seemed informed and reassuring twitter.com/arthistorynews/status/1569605271659466752?s=46&t=OGUklqnhTr-TVp3a31EX0Q

Softplayhooray · 13/09/2022 16:01

Nobody knows, OP. One might speculate that he is absorbing massive unexpected military losses which has savaged his ego, and we all know the Zaporizhzia (sorry, bad spelling probably) nuclear power plant has been used as a pawn for a long time and is down to reap emergency power. The idea of an 'accidental' nuclear accident there and at other Ukraine plants is therefore a possibility if he's scared of losing his strongman image.

But the possibility of him actually using a nuclear weapon I'd say is non existent and a nuclear meltdown while terrible is unlikely to extensively affect the UK due to geographic distance. Saying that the radiation could really affect Russia so I doubt the military are in favour.

Pixiedust1234 · 13/09/2022 16:01

This again? Go speak to your gp. You can't do anything so just let it go,

Derbee · 13/09/2022 16:03

I’d be surprised if their nuclear weapons work. The massively feared Russian Army have been shockingly inept. We need the world to keep arming Ukraine until this all comes to an end

walkingonsunshinekat · 13/09/2022 16:06

No such thing as a "small Nuclear weapon" even a "small" tactical weapon is as powerful that the 1st one used on Japan.

Then what for Putin/Russia? If NATO did nothing, he would then threaten other countries "Leave NATO, rejoin the USSR or i'll use another one"

This is why Ukraine has to give Putin a face saving way out, what that means is probably some sort of commitment to rid Ukraine of imaginary Nazi's but he can then sell that to his people as a "success"

As for the "this again, see your GP" scroll on by..? no one is forcing you to type inane comments.

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 13/09/2022 16:12

I doubt he'd use a nuke as it'd bring down the wrath of the world on him. It would be the end of Russia.

He may engineer an 'accident' at the nuclear plant but DH, who knows about this stuff said that worse case scenario would be a similar event to Fukishima but with less radiation and there absolutely will not be another Chernobyl.

Levellingdown · 13/09/2022 16:14

@walkingonsunshinekat there is such a thing as a tactical / small nuclear weapon. When people have discussed Putin using nuclear weapons it’s these as there would be incredibly limited point in pretty much nuking the next door country with a massive weapon
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 13/09/2022 16:25

Levellingdown · 13/09/2022 16:14

@walkingonsunshinekat there is such a thing as a tactical / small nuclear weapon. When people have discussed Putin using nuclear weapons it’s these as there would be incredibly limited point in pretty much nuking the next door country with a massive weapon
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon

DH says that it's the smaller ones which are more of a problem for the next door country. The big ones have a bigger blast radius on the ground but the fall out that the neighbours get is much less dangerous as it goes up higher, so takes longer to come back down, giving it more time to lose the worst of its radiation.

justaladyLOL · 13/09/2022 16:29

You cant change anything so do not waste time worrying

User287264 · 13/09/2022 16:35

I feel a bit uneasy too. I feel like some big reaction from Putin, either planned or lashing out unplanned, is coming.

But what will be will be, I can't do anything about it.

Huelcup · 13/09/2022 16:40

He's had months to use a nuke and hasn't yet.

You should probably be more worried about the Ukrainian nuclesr power station that appears to only be running on two AA batteries whilst Ukrainian and Russian forces both battle around it.

Igotjelly · 13/09/2022 16:42

They anticipates massive retaliatory strikes following the explosions in Crimea and they never came. Considering the Kremlin still refuses to mobilise the population and economy to a war footing I think the use of tactical nuclear weapons is unlikely.

what is concerning is the situation son Zaphorizhzhia.

Igotjelly · 13/09/2022 16:43

*situation in

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 13/09/2022 16:44

what is concerning is the situation son Zaphorizhzhia.

It's concerning for the Ukrainians and the people who live in the surrounding area of the plant but it poses no risk to people in western Europe.

FatherBuzzCagney · 13/09/2022 16:45

Hi OP, FWIW I'm an academic specialising in Russian foreign/security policy. These are scary issues and so it's not surprising that you and other people are anxious. Hopefully I can explain why you don't need to worry about this particular issue very much. Tl;dr: the Russian army isn't suicidal so I don't see them using them, even if Putin wanted them to.

There are two types of nuclear weapons that people have talked about Russia potentially using during the war. The first are the missiles designed to strike western Europe, including the UK. These are the things that the fascist nutters on Russian current affairs TV have been threatening to launch at the UK and Ireland. This is delusional nonsense that no-one believes, including them no doubt. Any attempt to target a NATO state with a nuclear weapon carries the very high probability of a nuclear response, wiping out Putin, the senior Russian military leadership, their wives, mistresses, children, dachas. Putin knows this. We can never say anything with 100% certainty, but this is as close to an impossible scenario as it's possible to get in international affairs.

The second are the so-called tactical nuclear weapons, designed to be used on the battlefield. They're referred to as this because the idea is that they only have tactical application and effects - basically, they're used to achieve specific things on the battlefield. They are, in theory, different from strategic nukes (the type I mentioned above) which transform not just the battlefield, but the states involved - and the rest of the world.

The problem with the idea of tactical nukes for Russia in this scenario is that they can't, in fact, contain their effects to the battlefield alone - i.e. tactical nukes can never actually be tactical, they will provoke escalation and so will always have larger, strategic effects. This is a point made by people like Lawrence Freedman, one of the UK's most eminent scholars of war.

We can see this very clearly in the current war. In relation to the nuclear power plant currently being occupied by Russia, Western politicians have said that a deliberate release of radiation by Russia could be treated as a NATO Article 5 matter - meaning that it would provoke a direct military response from NATO (most importantly, the US). If that's the position in case of the power plant, you can be very confident that the same principle applies to any Russian use of tactical nukes. More importantly, the Russian government will know that it applies to tactical nukes.

We don't know what mental state Putin is in - it's possible he might feel the game is up and be happy to go out in a nuclear holocaust. But the men (and they are all men) around him are in power for what they can get - status, and a yacht-load of cash. Shoigu, the Russian Defence Minister is the classic example of this, but they're all the same. I can't see any circumstances in which the men around Putin would be willing to kill themselves and everyone close to them just to allow Putin to avoid defeat. They will get rid of him sooner than do that.

Another factor making tactical nuke use in Ukraine massively unlikely is the morale problem in the Russian army. There are all sorts of reports (not all verified) coming out about the state of the Russian army in Ukraine: desertions, soldiers disobeying orders, resignations, serious tensions between officers and men, fighting between the Russian army proper and the units from the Donetsk and Luhansk "peoples republics", fighting between the Russian army and the Chechen irregulars. It's clearly an absolute shitshow - as can be seen from the way the Russians collapsed in the face of the recent Ukrainian offensive. I don't see how the Russian army leadership (even if it wanted to) would persuade underpaid, underfed, mutinous troops to use tactical nukes, knowing what the response would be.

Hope this all makes sense. Happy to explain anything else Russia/NATO/war-related you have any questions about.

Igotjelly · 13/09/2022 16:46

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 13/09/2022 16:44

what is concerning is the situation son Zaphorizhzhia.

It's concerning for the Ukrainians and the people who live in the surrounding area of the plant but it poses no risk to people in western Europe.

Indeed. I’m not sure our concern should be limited to those of us in the UK though….

Andante57 · 13/09/2022 16:47

The massively feared Russian Army have been shockingly inept

Yes, I was very surprised by this as I’d always thought they were an incredibly powerful military force.
How long has the Russian army been in decline? Since the end of the Soviet Union? Or were all those displays of Soviet military might greatly exaggerated?

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 13/09/2022 16:49

Igotjelly · 13/09/2022 16:46

Indeed. I’m not sure our concern should be limited to those of us in the UK though….

Absolutely. I'm desperately worried for the people of Ukraine. My comment was to still the fears of those who are frightened for themselves and their children when they really don't need to be.

InconstantMoon · 13/09/2022 16:58

Thanks for that great post and sharing your expert knowledge @FatherBuzzCagney

MarshaBradyo · 13/09/2022 17:00

Appreciate post FatherBuzz

FatherBuzzCagney · 13/09/2022 17:01

Andante57 · 13/09/2022 16:47

The massively feared Russian Army have been shockingly inept

Yes, I was very surprised by this as I’d always thought they were an incredibly powerful military force.
How long has the Russian army been in decline? Since the end of the Soviet Union? Or were all those displays of Soviet military might greatly exaggerated?

The Russian army was in a terrible state in the 1990s for lots of reasons, the Russian government kept promising serious military reform but never did it - partly because the politicians relied to various degrees on the support of the senior armed forces leadership, who were quite happy with the way things were (because they got to steal everything, basically).

The Russian army was humiliated in Chechnya in the 90s, then by things like the sinking of the Kursk submarine, then by its underperformance in its war with Georgia in 2008.

That finally forced them to start real reforms, and between 2008 and 20022 the Russian govt spent many billions of dollars modernising the armed forces. So most analysts thought the Russian armed forces - though still dealing with obvious corruption and other problems - were a serious proposition again.

Turns out they're not. The war has shown that all the old problems - corruption, lack of strategic thinking, tactical and operation ineptitude, corruption, poor unit cohesion, terrible morale, and corruption - are just as present as they were 25 years ago in Chechnya. And now the consequences are a hundred times worse for them because they aren't fighting a small group of secessionists, they're fighting a serious army that's backed by a population of 40 million and is equipped by the US. They're screwed, and it's very unlikely anyone will take them seriously again.

FatherBuzzCagney · 13/09/2022 17:02

Thanks @InconstantMoonand @MarshaBradyo !