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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to believe interest rates should be at least 4% already, and rising fast?

227 replies

LargeDeviation · 05/09/2022 19:34

1.75% base rate is pathetic in the face of double digit inflation.

The Bank of England has been much slower than the Fed in raising rates, and this is one of the main reasons why sterling is weakening - not the only one of course. Gas and oil are priced in dollars and energy prices are the dominant contributor to inflation, so we should strengthen the pound wherever we can.

The BoE has been far too timid to raise rates going back to Mark Carney. He had several opportunites to raise rates and even gave unemployment thresholds at which he would do it, but when unemployment went far lower he invariably lost his nerve.

Andrew Bailey is even worse. He should have cut QE and started raising rates as soon as it was clear that vaccines were working in early 2021 - or at least when it was clear that omicron was mild. It was clear far before the war in Ukraine that the post-vaccine boom would cause at least some significant inflation. Even after the war started, he has been so timid in acting! Tiny 0.25% and 0.5% raises.

Yes, raising rates will reduce cashflow, reduce house prices, and even possibly cause negative equity to those on high LTV variable mortgages, or those remortgaging soon. And yes it will reduce credit available to households and businesses, which would be difficult.

However with inflation you need to act fast and act big to get people to believe you are serious about taming it, otherwise expectations take hold and it becomes embedded. It is easy to cut rates again a bit afterwards.

If any of the MPC are reading: stop quivering, stop with the Lilliputian raises, and remember that your mandate isn't about the broader economy but to keep inflation under control!

OP posts:
Frabbits · 03/07/2023 10:31

I don't think it's necessarily pensioner bashing to point out that rising interest rates tends to benefit older generations, as they by and large will have paid the mortgage off and will benefit from improved savings rates.

The problem we have is that compared to last time around in the late 90's/early 2000s is that so many people have taken out fixed rate mortgages that rising rates isn't impacting as many people as quickly as it might have done. Yes, the cost of credit card/loan borrowing etc has risen but at the moment the main expense of the households the BoE are trying to restrict spending on simply isn't being impacted.

StormShadow · 03/07/2023 10:31

Cheapaschips1 · 03/07/2023 07:14

So our entire means of bringing inflation down resorts to hammering a small proportion of the mortgage owning public and leaving those with money (I’m looking at you, pensioners) spend, spend, spending. It’s not working.

Tbf it goes beyond pensioners, they're just the group statistically most likely to be in either fully paid for owner houses or SH.

But otherwise I agree, I'm sceptical about this tactic because the effect is so unevenly felt. I say this as a millennial with a small mortgage and a fortunately timed long fix. Lots of people have circumstances that shield them from the impact.

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