Is it real or scaremongering?

[girlfrien]

Do you really think small businesses and pubs will shut down because of electricity prices?
Was on the news yesterday about Pubs?
Do you think it will really come to it?

Unless things change drastically in the next few months then yes, I believe it will be true. Businesses will fail, people will be pushed further into poverty and people will die

Of course it's real and is going to happen - why would you think it isn't?! Haven't you been reading up about energy pricing and what is going to happen?

It's already happening. And stop saying scaremongering, it makes you sound like a trumpian fake news loon.

Of course. If they can't recoup the costs, what else can happen?

A friend’s husband is manager of a big, popular, long-established local restaurant — a real institution that’s been open 7 days a week from breakfast to midnight for thirty years (bar Covid). They are going to close two days a week from the start of October.

Yes but the government might give people help. Don't be aggressive it's just a chat.

What about hospitals and schools too?
How would it be acceptable for a hospital to not be available.

I would say it’s very real. Not only will they struggle to pay their costs for heating and kitchens etc but most people won’t have spare money to eat out or go for drinks or impulse spending or paying so more expensive items (like fancy mugs etc)

my friend runs a cafe. She’s terrified business has already slowed to point sheds cut her opening ours or days because people just have less money but then predicted increases mean she thinks she’ll have to give up her cafe because she won’t be able to afford it

Many pubs don't make a lot of money in the first place, neither do small restaurants and they're facing massive increase in energy costs, eg £15k to £70k. That's potentially all the profit, aka the owner's wages, gone and then some.

They could up their prices, but this is at a time when many of their customers will be cutting back on non essentials like eating and drinking out due to declining disposable income, so will cut back even more so if prices rise as they either won't be able to afford it, or at least won't want to pay two or three times the current cost for a meal or drink out.

It's a perfect storm, very worrying and hard to see a way out.

Yes it will happen unless something changes. Look at the maths. If energy prices needed to run a business go up significantly and prices can’t be reasonably raised to cover these then the business will fail.

It's already happening so yes.
My brother & SIL owns a small restaurant & catering company, they struggled through covid and all though they are a resourceful pair the costs for utilities are already causing real issues for them. The cap doesn't apply to businesses so they have already been paying far higher prices than domestic supplies.
It's not like you can cook/store food without electricity and gas so cutting back isn't an option.

My husband works in hospitality for one of the big chains. He is very worried. In just his small area of 14 pubs the energy bills have gone up by tens of thousands in the last few months. Sales are still growing, but profits are in the hundreds rather than the thousands and will shortly disappear if the rises keep coming.

His company is still investing so we are trying not to panic. Small businesses will not survive without help. This will be worse than covid if something isn't done quickly!

Some governments might help

Why would a right wing Tory government who believes
-that people who work hard will always succeed - you if you fail it was your fault

• in a small state - so won't raise taxes from the rich to help the poor
• in ensuring that the rich get richer on the back side the middle and below

Help?

Unless the Gov't do something, yes they will close. Many already are, we've already had a butcher's, a baker and a wine bar close in my city and the village next to us.

Rising of interest rates are designed to make us all too poor to spend money, to prompt prices to come down and slow inflation. But with energy costs crippling businesses need to keep prices high to cover their costs, but people will be too poor to shop due to the aforementioned interest rises so businesses will close. It is inevitable.

What about hospitals and schools too

Hospitals and schools are going to find it incredibly hard to balance the books because they just don't have the spare budget for increased energy costs.

They're also supposed to give staff pay rises, that are inadequate in the current climate but still far more than their budgets allow.

There needs to be a huge package of government support or else things are going to look very grim in 6-12 months time (believe it or not, a lot of the expected price/cost increases haven't even filtered through yet).

@girlfrien
Re hospitals there bills are also going up massively and those costs will come out of overall budgets so less money for staff and treatments
Listen to this clip from a hospital manager about their plans and costs it tells you how much the figures are - it's scary twitter.com/lbc/status/1564585173261361154?s=21&t=_VVaX9498fVTyV5-nT-40g

Schools will struggle too. We’ve already been asked to make sure all returning and new children have plenty of warm weather clothing and extra layers for the winter. They’re allowing non regulation plain coloured jumpers and sweatshirts under school jumpers

hospitals I imagine will cut or do minimal non life threatening services (extending all ready insane waiting times) and prioritise people and services that are critical

so far the government is pretty clear they’re not planning any extra help :.. I’m sure that will change when it starts to get worse but I don’t think they’ll step in until it’s too late for a lot of places

It's already happening. Both our local pub and local curry house have now gone from 7 days a week to only open Thur-Sun, as it's not viable for them to pay bills and staff for a whole week.

Yes, of course, if there isn’t major intervention, small businesses - the bedrock of the economy - will be decimated. And once that happens, it’s not easy to recover from - it will take years after recovery for small businesses to build up again.

Obviously hospitals and schools won’t close, but if there’s no further investment in them (which is unlikely under the current regime) then they will be run on even more of a shoestring than they are already and many things once viewed as essential will be cut.

Don't try to tone police me, I'm not being aggressive at all.

Do you think hospitals and schools are comparable to pubs?

I don't think the help the government will/may offer will be enough to stop some hospitality venues closing.

Lots of businesses will fail.

1. The general population will have to stop spending as much of their disposable income because of increased food and energy prices.
2. Businesses will be charged more for their energy and will need to recover that money by putting prices up.
3. Businesses will lose business because people no longer have spare cash to spend and will have to close. Certain businesses, especially in the hospitality industry have very small profits as it is. They were decimated in the various lockdowns.

It is a perfect storm for the collapse of the economy and we better hope that at some point in the very near future someone in government appreciates what we are facing.

You've posted in AIBU did you mean to use chat?

You are totallyU not to realise that of course lots of businesses won't survive this without some form of help just like lots of households will be forced deeper into poverty just trying to survive

It's not scaremongering at all

Businesses being shut for x amount of days per week = people out of jobs.

That's what I mean do you think there will be major intervention.

Its good to hear from the people who are running a business etc.Thanks for your input and giving examples.

A lot of businesses have barely recovered from covid. especially hospitality, this should be the time they are recuping those losses and paying back loans etc, but profits are being eaten up by energy and cost of living rises and people have less disposable income so arent spending.

The government won’t do anything (beyond what they have done, which is exacerbate the problem tbf). It’s not healthy to have an economy where businesses aren’t allowed to go under. Capitalism is survival of the fittest.